Spencer is out with his latest + he too sees a miss. I don't think the company will address half of the questions he's asking + the street will reflect this in share price. Jack + crew need to step up and start answering these type of questions so the street can "feel" more comfortable with the projections the company is making or we will continue to see lower or stagnant prices.
Take a look at the 3 month chart and what do you see? A stock that has a steep slope down and it has nothing to do with just today its been trending down for some time. JL helped it along with his sale as the street didn't like it. I said there maybe some manipulation but not to the degree everyone is saying. I totally ignore the bashers and place the new ones on ignore as soon as they hit.
Another thing to consider is that they are many funds/institutions that are not allowed to hold stocks that are under 5/share.
I agree that there are glimmers of hope on the traction front but it needs to escalate for this stock to move up. Positive results on Belphen and the pipe wouldn't hurt either.
Continued, other catalysts are Belphen, smoking cessation, advancement of the pipe, and others.
PS start the thumbs down now. Need to take a real look and not just the rose colored glasses look. I still have my 10K shares and never sold because I always felt a buyout could come at any time until chief bozo sold that stake. Still think a better entry for shares will be after the report on Fri when hopefully the last of the bad news comes out with not meeting sales + rev. The increase in reps + the commercials should move sales above target going forward.
Wow, this is a dysfunctional board. More than 70% is on ignore including the pom pom queens that say nothing like baba and henri. The posts that the stock is being manipulated to a minor degree maybe correct, but come on, 100 share blocks like today when the vol may hit the daily avg by midday?!?!? Everyone bashes Spencer but at least he tries to give a subjective viewpoint. I'd rather see that than to the moon, 100 by tomorrow, 1000 by next year. That all being said look at the numbers.
IF the analyst numbers are correct we are slated to lose .33 by the end of the year including the Q reporting on Fri. We are projected to lose .34 next year. That's over 145MM. IMO we will not hit the Q number on Fri + the stock will take another hit + possibly push us toward 4/share or below. The calls are always before the bell + there won't be any earth shaking news. JL did us no favors by selling that large block + why did he need that much cash to relinquish that large a stake. The EU is dead + Eisai hasn't done us any favors either. I've said before I thought they were doing a lousy job + slow played it, hence firing Coates. Commercials in the time slots they started with? Who is fat watching syfy at 1 AM. This is a cash issue with Eisai in that they don't have it to spend freely on B otherwise we would be prime time + the sales force would be 1000 like Takeda has said they would throw at contrave.
I still like the long term story but its now 2 years out until sales can finally sustain the pipe which has huge promise. VVUS is dead + OREX may get a pop on contrave approval but their only other drug in their pipe is also weight loss. The cash burn will necessitate another secondary at the latest 1st Q of next year. Possible catalysts would be other submissions for B in other countries + some approvals but Eisai is also lagging there.
Basically we chose the wrong partner. I don't think they want B to grow too fast so they can delay the royalty payments due.
I don't get how they're the most "expensive stock". Looking at forward P/E they are the cheapest in the group. Another ignored metric is debt with MPEL having by far the lowest debt load in the group + forget about MGM's debt which is enormous. Now the ANALysts are touting the great comps in Vegas so I guess that will continue going forward and Macau will sink, NOT, yet they keep harping on the VIP segment, the smoking ban, the credit issue, etc, none of which has impacted MPEL thus far as earnings continue to impress. These clowns are positioning their clients into the right stocks by jaw boning stocks like MPEL down, to try + get the price down so their clients can get in cheaper.
I would normally say yes but the "pending merger" has driven up pps across the sector, an anomaly. Check the P/E's of LO + RAI compared to MO and you get a different picture. Bonnie says LO buy out at 80!
Paying a divvy at this stage is irresponsible. They need to maintain sufficient funds to continue to support their pipe and to wait until B starts generating enough cash flow to sustain the company. The shorts would not be affected with a token divvy. They would just have to pay that amount for each share short, aka, .05 divvy, 1000 shares short, $50 to the broker. They are better off status quo + hopefully not have to go for another secondary to support the company.
I agree but he should have given some light on WHEN we'll expect to see the B/Phen data. Also liked that they mentioned Glaxo as a potential suitor and followed up with its a buy at these levels. Adam Fartstain, the expert in biotech, will come out with a hit piece soon after he blew the OREX call.
He also said Eisai has said nothing about a buyout. Overall a positive news bite for longs.
Just bought another 1K shares at 33.40. Expect a good call + some analysts like LVS + WYNN better but look at the forward P/E's of the 3 and net cash positions.
I have said it in prior posts, Eisai has done a horrible job, marketing/selling this product and Coates exit was further proof. They pushed off TV for only 1 reason, MONEY. They didn't have it to spend in the 1st Q budget. There is no other reason. The sales staff has been nothing short of abysmal. Doubling the staff did not reflect a doubling in sales. Keep in mind those reps sell OTHER drugs not just B as its not a dedicated force.
This is a LONG term play not short term + the stock will tread water for several more months + stay range bound, get used to it. Why don't I sell + come back later? A buyout may happen so why squabble over pennies short term.
Long term the stock will be fine. The product is solid + other indications will prove successful and enhance sales, even with the pathetic sales force at Eisai. The pipe is strong + has a lot of promise.
TV - forget about it. All the posts stating TV is a few days away, wrong. The earliest is mid Apr + it will take several months to gain traction assuming they are decent ads. Will it make a difference, it really depends on how effective they are and hopefully not mundane. Oprah won't be selling it either.
Scripts, like it or not, are driving PPS. Moving up 5 or 10% isn't enough. Keep in mind the street is looking at WHEN, not if, ARNA becomes profitable now that they have an approved drug. Lackluster sales won't be looked at favorably and today's action is proof.
Sorry Sharon, I like your posts but forget about the weather and I'm tired of hearing that excuse for the overall economy. Fat people live all over the US not just the northeast.
Smoking cessation will be huge as its associated with increased weight gain and if you couple a drug that stops smoking AND reduces weight, you hit the mother load. ARNA should be putting a full court press on this front which also seems to be lagging.
Again, long term this is a 4 bagger, short term its a bunt single.
I hate the pom pom posts as much as the bashers.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
My question is why haven't they already lined up the people. They knew this trial was coming you would think they would have been looking for prospective participants prior to announcing the actual start. IF you have a drug that treats weight loss that also works to eliminate nicotine addictions, that's huge. Must say I do own 5K shares of MO so I am covered.
I don't buy that explanation. Yes bio is down, HOWEVER, many of those stocks have risen +300% and that certainly is not the case here. Its fallen over 17% in 7 days, more than the avg bio company. That being said, I did put in another order at 8. The MM's control the stock + move the price up and down for 100 share blocks. If the order is large enough, and here that's anything over 1000 shares, you may get filled. I am in the same camp as Needham.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I respectfully disagree it didn't go well. I didn't like the I'm not sure, I don't know, and the hedging around sales between the 3rd + 4th Q surrounding free samples. I think they need to get their you know what together for these calls. I totally agree with your points but those don't drive share price, the idiots asking the questions do and their subsequent ratings. I'm really surprised they didn't focus on the pipe in the Q&A. It was basically B oriented as I guess it should be as its the only approved drug. Lee the jerk was pumping OREX as he has that as a strong buy on the call and had the balls to ask if they were feeling the upcoming competition. He has VVUS rated above ARNA.
Bottom line the stock is trading lower now after the call. Expect it to open around 6.3.
OREX sales force question with Takeda + they have said they would employ 10K reps. That will be his next downgrade commentary. Check OREX opinions + they are at 1.9 or buy + ARNA at 2.7 hold. OREX has 1 other drug in the pipe + its another weight loss drug. Not exactly a strong pipe and no other potential indications like B for smoking. As far as adding phen, contrave already uses 2 generic drugs.
SA strikes again with "soft" guidance comment and they too don't understand in addition to B sales 17MM rev. These clowns are supposed to be legit?!?!? The real tell will be what happens when we hit the airways.
Arena -5.2% AH on Q4 miss, soft guidance
• 5:19 PM
•In addition to missing Q4 estimates, Arena (ARNA) is guiding for 2014 revenue of $17M, well below a $54.7M consensus. Upfront payments from existing collaborations are expected to total $9M, development/patent reimbursements from Eisai $7M, and Siegfried manufacturing services $1M.
I used the high end numbers they provided. 98MM R&D + 36MM SG&A + 7MM in non cash expense. Did not include the 10MM in capex. I am looking at total outgoing expenses as they will need to cover those.
Well, the stock dropped over 7% due to the EPS miss and the incorrect reading of the PR regarding 17MM in rev. People that was rev EXCLUDING B sales. The only issue I have is the 142MM in total projected expenditures for 2014. B sales will need to be very robust to avoid a secondary in 2015. The price should come back as the yahoo's who sold on the initial report realize their mistake. Everyone is so concerned with the last Q but the most important issue is forward guidance + there was none in the PR regarding expected B sales. Will need to hear it on the call along with the progress with Belphen, other indications, and the pipe.