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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

mario_themario 208 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 28, 2014 3:19 PM Member since: May 23, 2005
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  • mario_themario by mario_themario Mar 28, 2014 3:19 PM Flag

    I have said it in prior posts, Eisai has done a horrible job, marketing/selling this product and Coates exit was further proof. They pushed off TV for only 1 reason, MONEY. They didn't have it to spend in the 1st Q budget. There is no other reason. The sales staff has been nothing short of abysmal. Doubling the staff did not reflect a doubling in sales. Keep in mind those reps sell OTHER drugs not just B as its not a dedicated force.
    This is a LONG term play not short term + the stock will tread water for several more months + stay range bound, get used to it. Why don't I sell + come back later? A buyout may happen so why squabble over pennies short term.
    Long term the stock will be fine. The product is solid + other indications will prove successful and enhance sales, even with the pathetic sales force at Eisai. The pipe is strong + has a lot of promise.
    TV - forget about it. All the posts stating TV is a few days away, wrong. The earliest is mid Apr + it will take several months to gain traction assuming they are decent ads. Will it make a difference, it really depends on how effective they are and hopefully not mundane. Oprah won't be selling it either.
    Scripts, like it or not, are driving PPS. Moving up 5 or 10% isn't enough. Keep in mind the street is looking at WHEN, not if, ARNA becomes profitable now that they have an approved drug. Lackluster sales won't be looked at favorably and today's action is proof.
    Sorry Sharon, I like your posts but forget about the weather and I'm tired of hearing that excuse for the overall economy. Fat people live all over the US not just the northeast.
    Smoking cessation will be huge as its associated with increased weight gain and if you couple a drug that stops smoking AND reduces weight, you hit the mother load. ARNA should be putting a full court press on this front which also seems to be lagging.
    Again, long term this is a 4 bagger, short term its a bunt single.
    I hate the pom pom posts as much as the bashers.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mario_themario mario_themario Mar 27, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    My question is why haven't they already lined up the people. They knew this trial was coming you would think they would have been looking for prospective participants prior to announcing the actual start. IF you have a drug that treats weight loss that also works to eliminate nicotine addictions, that's huge. Must say I do own 5K shares of MO so I am covered.

  • Reply to

    Something's Up

    by akhpatel Mar 24, 2014 3:01 PM
    mario_themario mario_themario Mar 27, 2014 11:06 AM Flag

    I don't buy that explanation. Yes bio is down, HOWEVER, many of those stocks have risen +300% and that certainly is not the case here. Its fallen over 17% in 7 days, more than the avg bio company. That being said, I did put in another order at 8. The MM's control the stock + move the price up and down for 100 share blocks. If the order is large enough, and here that's anything over 1000 shares, you may get filled. I am in the same camp as Needham.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    BURN RATE IS WAY TO HIGH

    by anthonymccoy726 Feb 27, 2014 8:26 PM
    mario_themario mario_themario Feb 27, 2014 8:29 PM Flag

    Keep in mind the burn rate includes their pipe which is moving forward and that costs money.

  • Reply to

    Great conference call

    by lab4mathias Feb 27, 2014 5:46 PM
    mario_themario mario_themario Feb 27, 2014 6:04 PM Flag

    I respectfully disagree it didn't go well. I didn't like the I'm not sure, I don't know, and the hedging around sales between the 3rd + 4th Q surrounding free samples. I think they need to get their you know what together for these calls. I totally agree with your points but those don't drive share price, the idiots asking the questions do and their subsequent ratings. I'm really surprised they didn't focus on the pipe in the Q&A. It was basically B oriented as I guess it should be as its the only approved drug. Lee the jerk was pumping OREX as he has that as a strong buy on the call and had the balls to ask if they were feeling the upcoming competition. He has VVUS rated above ARNA.
    Bottom line the stock is trading lower now after the call. Expect it to open around 6.3.

  • mario_themario by mario_themario Feb 27, 2014 5:44 PM Flag

    OREX sales force question with Takeda + they have said they would employ 10K reps. That will be his next downgrade commentary. Check OREX opinions + they are at 1.9 or buy + ARNA at 2.7 hold. OREX has 1 other drug in the pipe + its another weight loss drug. Not exactly a strong pipe and no other potential indications like B for smoking. As far as adding phen, contrave already uses 2 generic drugs.

  • Reply to

    PR misinterpreted

    by mario_themario Feb 27, 2014 4:54 PM
    mario_themario mario_themario Feb 27, 2014 5:27 PM Flag

    SA strikes again with "soft" guidance comment and they too don't understand in addition to B sales 17MM rev. These clowns are supposed to be legit?!?!? The real tell will be what happens when we hit the airways.

    Arena -5.2% AH on Q4 miss, soft guidance
    • 5:19 PM
    •In addition to missing Q4 estimates, Arena (ARNA) is guiding for 2014 revenue of $17M, well below a $54.7M consensus. Upfront payments from existing collaborations are expected to total $9M, development/patent reimbursements from Eisai $7M, and Siegfried manufacturing services $1M.

  • Reply to

    PR misinterpreted

    by mario_themario Feb 27, 2014 4:54 PM
    mario_themario mario_themario Feb 27, 2014 5:07 PM Flag

    I used the high end numbers they provided. 98MM R&D + 36MM SG&A + 7MM in non cash expense. Did not include the 10MM in capex. I am looking at total outgoing expenses as they will need to cover those.

  • mario_themario by mario_themario Feb 27, 2014 4:54 PM Flag

    Well, the stock dropped over 7% due to the EPS miss and the incorrect reading of the PR regarding 17MM in rev. People that was rev EXCLUDING B sales. The only issue I have is the 142MM in total projected expenditures for 2014. B sales will need to be very robust to avoid a secondary in 2015. The price should come back as the yahoo's who sold on the initial report realize their mistake. Everyone is so concerned with the last Q but the most important issue is forward guidance + there was none in the PR regarding expected B sales. Will need to hear it on the call along with the progress with Belphen, other indications, and the pipe.

  • Reply to

    Any coincidence April Ads

    by sharonconk Feb 27, 2014 12:03 PM
    mario_themario mario_themario Feb 27, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    They were told to stop. I don't think they wanted little girls hanging out near a pot dispensary.

  • Reply to

    todzun get real

    by mario_themario Feb 26, 2014 9:50 AM
    mario_themario mario_themario Feb 26, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    So, you post the counter arguments on the VVUS/OREX boards about Belviq? NO. All your posts are pro Q and anti B and I reposted YOUR posts as proof. You were and still are, long VVUS period. You post nothing negative on the VVUS/OREX board just here, WHY? What is your agenda? IF you're not in any of the 3 stocks why are you still posting here? When I exit a position in a stock I never post there again. IF you're not in VVUS why do you care about the benefits of stendra?
    That's because you're long VVUS and bash ARNA because it will be the long term survivor in this space NOT VVUS.

  • Reply to

    todzun get real

    by mario_themario Feb 26, 2014 9:50 AM
    mario_themario mario_themario Feb 26, 2014 10:04 AM Flag

    Sorry for the confusion pom pom queens who gave the thumbs down, but those were Todzuns posts not mine that I culled from his earlier posts. I am long ARNA and have been for some time.
    I don't like the short posts as 99% here have no merit and say nothing BUT, I don't care for the pom pom posts either as they take away from good discussions about the stock.

  • mario_themario by mario_themario Feb 26, 2014 9:50 AM Flag

    I haven't owned any VVUS for a long time. I realized a long time ago Belviq and Qsymia sales were falling well short of expectations. An investment in ARNA, VVUS or OREX is a bad one.

    Yet you only bash here + nothing on the VVUS/OREX boards. Any posts about VVUS you tout the benefits on its drugs. You're pathetically long VVUS but don't have the you know what's to admit it.

    So these posts are for what:
    The important thing is Qsymia will continue to take away market share from Belviq forever no matter who owns it
    Your post is filled with false statements. Regardless of the issues with the company, Qsymia is a good drug that has its place helping people lose and maintain longterm weight reduction and all the associated health benefits. The studies on Qsymia studies are very clear on that.
    Stendra (avanafil) has a 15 minute onset, fewer side effects, can be taken with fatty foods, superior to viagra. Unlikely staccato based ED drug will add enough value to sell much.

  • Reply to

    5766 Trx ims Up 1%

    by majortom2cntrl Feb 21, 2014 1:39 PM
    mario_themario mario_themario Feb 21, 2014 3:02 PM Flag

    And you're long VVUS, your point? Talk about confused, go back to that board.

  • Reply to

    Incredible That Pumpers See $8 Float as Positive

    by dctrig Feb 20, 2014 1:06 PM
    mario_themario mario_themario Feb 21, 2014 2:59 PM Flag

    Well, another bounce up. There are tax consequences to buying + selling short term, as in 35% tax cap gains vs 15% long term gains. IF you own less than a year your number is a tad off on that haircut and what its selling for today let alone tomorrow. Like anyone with a brain is going to take investment advice from someone posting a comment on any thread.
    OK you posted a winner, how many losers do you have. Let me guess, none + Buffet comes to you for investment advice.

  • Reply to

    Low volume for this kind of move

    by sp500chartdotcom Jan 31, 2014 9:54 AM
    mario_themario mario_themario Jan 31, 2014 4:04 PM Flag

    Well, 6.40 went bye bye, down to the day's low at 6.32 on heavy vol. The 200 day was 6.50. I know that weekly numbers are noise but the stock went south as it lost traction with a decline in scripts. A +7.5% drop is meaningful and buying at 6.81 + saying it doesn't mean anything is bunk. No one wants to lose over 7% in a day. The shorts are still in charge + will continue to be until scripts start to escalate. I won't add anymore shares as I feel I'm already heavily weighted at 10K shares but I won't sell either as I don't play the swings. You never know what may pop that will cause a price rise and being out or short is not an option.

  • Reply to

    Low volume for this kind of move

    by sp500chartdotcom Jan 31, 2014 9:54 AM
    mario_themario mario_themario Jan 31, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    I agree in that I'm in for the long haul + I am patient. I just get irritated by the pumping and dumping posts. I prefer to keep things centered around the facts about the company, progress moving forward and even the short thesis if they have anything of merit as to why. I have yet to see one valid post that is negative provide any real reasons that hold water.

    As far as the sales staff, they have been adding people since Oct + should have had the positions filled in entirety by the end of Dec. The assumption people to seem to have is that all 200 people were added on 12/31. I will agree that the full impact of the addition won't be until Mar BUT we should have seen some incremental results since people came on board as early as Oct.

    Commercials will have a major impact in bringing more awareness to the general populous + Dr's.

    As far as scripts being accurate, that isn't important as you use the data as a gauge on how well the drug is selling. The point being, are sales increasing or stagnant with the presumption that they are wrong but they are wrong by the same amt week after week and the trend is what you follow not the absolute number.

    Still believe that this will be much higher over a year from now, especially with the advancement in the pipe as the street is totally ignoring it.

  • Reply to

    Low volume for this kind of move

    by sp500chartdotcom Jan 31, 2014 9:54 AM
    mario_themario mario_themario Jan 31, 2014 10:48 AM Flag

    OK, using my noggin, what's your take now that the stock is down .35 on over 2.5MM shares in 1 hr of trading? I've said it many times, I'm here for the long haul and that means OVER a year before we really start to see the potential of the company. I do get tired of the posts, commercials starting 1/31, my neighbor says, my magic 8 ball says, and forget about all the bashing posts. Don't give me the markets down story as the stock certainly hasn't run up with the overall market in the past year. This is a highly manipulated stock that the MM's can move up + down and do. The analysts have been wrong all along + most didn't see approval let alone the potential sitting in the pipeline. The stock will continue to trade in a range UNTIL DTC starts in earnest and we start to see sales ramp. Other catalysts are more market entries, adding phen results, additional applications, smoking/drinking cessation, and moving the pipe to phase II + III. Its a long term story that will play out but short term we are held hostage to scripts + to be honest, they are still lagging with the addition of the sales staff that really haven't moved the needle.

  • Reply to

    Low volume for this kind of move

    by sp500chartdotcom Jan 31, 2014 9:54 AM
    mario_themario mario_themario Jan 31, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    Really?!?!? Over 1.7MM shares traded in 50 min and down over 5%. I'm long but stop posting #$%$.

  • Reply to

    Keep Fooling Yourself it's Going Much Lower

    by coiled.springs Jan 27, 2014 10:18 AM
    mario_themario mario_themario Jan 27, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    So does the ignore button and your one line posts that say nothing

ARNA
6.18-0.12(-1.90%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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