You are in the right ballpark, but it is more like a game of cricket as it will take two years below $36 to determine the outcome!
Hold your breath and hope that crude prices continue to increase, as this would have a significant positive impact on the May distribution to be announced in late April!
PSEC pays the full dividend on 100% on the shares they have issued. Persons who are short pay 100% on the 9% of shares they have sold to other investors.
Insider buys in huge magnitude didn't start until December 2015. The $32 million monthly dividend payout (about 9% of which comes from persons short the stock) doesn't reach investors until tomorrow.
I guess the 2 insiders who just reported purchasing a combined total of nearly 1.1 million more shares of PSEC on Thursday share my opinion of the CLO valuation issue.
PSEC could experience additional temporary drops in NAV without ANY impact on the cash dividend. Proof of this is that while "book" NAV has declined, net investment income, and taxable income have both increased.
"market value" of a CLO portfolio has absolutely no impact on the amount of cash a CLO can produce. Panic or forced sales can have significant impact on price, but absolutely no impact on cash produced. Loan defaults, which have not yet occurred, and may never occur, are the only thing that adversely impacts cash flow from a CLO.
I'll start taking my profits just below $10 per share. Until then I'll just collect my monthly dividends.
I didn't think the report or the conference call were "bad" in any sense of the word. Performance was about as expected, and distorted by unreasonable market decline in the price of all sub-prime loans. I don't hold FSC, simply because I believe PSEC will provide better returns. Now if PSEC were to be inspired to match FSC's management fee structure, I'ld really get excited!