And now we know the end game: appraisal rights, apparently. Fortunately, it doesn't appear there is an appraisal rights carve out in the MA.
CT ORDER, then a bit later a spike to 13.71, then the much awaited put deflation. Anyone else watching this horror show? Somebody lost money on all that nonsense; hopefully it was the bots and not me. Is the deal done or not? And what's with dropping a CT ORDER, and not a K on the vote? Whatever.
PPS coming in, but puts still elevated. Keep your head and arms inside the car at all times, and hold onto the rail tightly. Good luck everyone.
Thanks AT. You full size here? I'm not that brave, but arb is so dead this is one of the only games in town. I guess you have to be long. Watching DOLE? Bidding a dime on the Jan $13 puts, free money for a few days work, assuming the deal really closes when they claim. Tons of vol in those today; didn't pull the T/S, but it looks like arbs hitting the bid. Wonder who is bidding and why.
And today we get a K talking about an earnings CC in early Nov. So much for 2 weeks from the beginning of Oct. Not that I don't think the deal will close, I imagine its likely it will (but why do you need an earnings CC if you are about to close?), but my patience is beginning to wear a bit thin, so I moved on and closed longs today. Not a bad AR for my time here; certainly a much better one for those with the patience to tough it out, assuming the deal closes. Good luck to my fellow arbs.
Have a source? Official guidance is by end of year. And, as you correctly point out, FTC furlough is slowing down the process due to less bodies.
I'm not in either this deal, or CTB at present. Solvency opinion just seemed like a random event that could go either way. I'm not smart enough to do the analysis on that, and come up with the odds, tho I agree with AT that the odds of closing here are looking better than a week ago. Yesterday's price action had that "someone knows something" spike, and I almost entered, but then it didn't hold. So, what's up with that? Will eval this am. I still think CTB gets done, at a discount. I have not traded it since the USW decision, where I bailed. I don't think that lawsuit is going anywhere, my memory from the 08 era is that they never did. Good luck.
I think it can. I think all that has to be done is get the financing placed. I've read recently that that was going well. Good luck.
No one wants hung paper, regardless of the putative obligations of the banks. While they often fund in these situations, they don't always. The PPS simply reflects the obvious muddle. Good luck.
I believe serena is right. Looks obvious on the chart. I still think the deal will close, but admit I sold after that USW news. I'm just sort of sick of it. Arbs don't like volatility (at least I don't). Maybe I'll nibble at it here, maybe not, but certainly not nearly in a full size.
BTW, anyone know if Apollo is putting up any equity at all? And if so, when their FX hedges expire. That was my big concern after the USW business, tho I just felt like selling on that concern rather than bothering to look it up. Good luck everyone.