Exactly, it's either a very bullish bet or they are just hoping the strike is reset. Volume was higher for the warrants today than the stock, which is odd.
It's possible whoever is buying the warrants is hoping for settlement with TauroPharm in the next 6 months. That's the only potential event I see which could increase CorMedix revenue substantially and cause the price to move north of $5. If the lawsuit drags on for years, then I would say there is a 90% chance the warrants are worth $0-0.50 next March.
No it was the $3.10 warrants that were adjusted down to $2.50. The $3.10 warrants were issued March 2014. These publicly traded warrants at $3.43 are from the IPO. They have not been adjusted.
That is correct, now almost noon on the east coast, zero volume. Pretty amazing. The stock isn't halted.
The even more amazing thing is that the warrants are showing 11,600 in volume, and they have a strike of $3.43 and expire in 6 months.
yeah exactly, date not specified. It will not be 2014. Why would they increase the number of shares by 60+% in 3 months when the stock is at a 5 year low? Why would they get the loan if they were just going to dilute the hell out of this anyway???
Dude, relax, they're not going to issue 45M shares. They will register a ton and use them when they need them or they may never use them. All the S1 is saying is that they're available. I agree with what gmeabrk said above. This is an incredible opportunity right here to buy cheap shares in a company that will be bought out if FDA says yes. This is how the big boys operate. Let the tiny companies like Guided take all the risk. Once it's approved as a triage device and clinics have some experience with it, GE or someone like GE will buy Guided, spend the money for the pivotal screening trial, and you will have Luviva in every women's health clinic in the country. The beauty of this opportunity is that even if FDA says no, Guided still has a growing business internationally with many markets still completely untapped.
There is no other biotech out there right now with $1-3M in 2014 rev, FDA decision a few months away, and a $20M cap.
I agree, definitely odd to tuck good news into a Friday afternoon 8k. My guess is they will put out a PR next week, wrapped together with something else. Probably IND filing or label expansion.
For now I can live with crickets as long as they don't wake up the bear. I have a feeling they might though...they're pretty dang loud.
They are simply betting that 69 days from now, the stock price will be higher than it is now, and they will not have to dilute as much. This is Gene actually looking out for longs. If the stock is still stuck at $0.35 then it won't pay off, but we only lose $140k. If the stock is even 5 or 10 cents higher, then it'll be worth it. Reading between the lines, I think it means they expect to have positive news in the next 70 days.
I don't think a US-based company could accept Kalashnikovs given the current state of US/Russian relations, so probably poppy.
53 units sold to distributors as of 6/30. If that order comes through from the women's healthy system in Bangladesh it would more than double the number of units in use. Could happen in weeks according to Gene on the cc.
Worst case scenario they raise $6M at around $0.30 and issue 20M more shares. That puts the total count with warrants at a little over 100M shares. On FDA approval this is easily a $50M-100M market cap or $0.50-$1. Why would anyone not buy here? I bought at 0.38, 0.37, 0.36 and will continue to buy if it goes any lower. It's an easy double or triple if they get FDA approval. If they don't, then we're still looking at break even in 2016 based on the international business.
$0.50-$1 is the worst case with FDA approval, the best case is that they only have to issue 6-8M shares here, let's say the share count is 80M and then the cap goes to $100M. $1.25/share.
This is priced for complete failure - time to LOAD UP.
I think we also need to remember, there is more competition in EU than just Tauropharm. There are trisodium citrate catheter locks also available in Europe which are not allowed in the US. So the US looks very very good for CRMD.
PATH? You mean GAIN/QIPD?
Agree it was a decent call...a lot hinges on QIPD/US partnering, label expansion/possible settlement with Tauropham. These small deals and revs in Germany are not going to impact the bottom line anytime soon.
The highlight for me was:
In conjunction with efforts of our distributor, this tender has laid the ground work for what could be a much larger work to place a LuViva in over 60 women health centers throughout the country. The requisition for funding of this larger program has been officially made by the organizing body to the Ministry of Health. We hope to hear what the ministry’s plans are within the next few weeks, and we will share more details as they become available.
I'm assuming 60 women's health centers would mean an order for at least 60 instruments. That would be huge. Details within weeks.
I stand ready to buy if it dips below $0.40. Otherwise waiting to see what Gene has for us Wed/Thur. Kind of odd the way they split the results and the call no? Perhaps they're putting out some kind of news Wed that will take time to digest?
sentiment has hit a new low...no one even cares what it means.
Or maybe every crmd investor is so smart they deciphered the acronym on their own.
Nice to see it close above $2 with no "significant" news. If they find US partner, ink distribution deal or get label expansion we could easily start printing new 52 week highs.