Sorry Ghart....thought you sold your PEIX before earnings last earnings. Yes...the vol etf funds are short it and forget it....if your broker allows you to hold the short. Do not short on margin.
PEIX....5 bagger since 3rd quarter earnings. And...it could at least double from here if input costs for producing Ethanol continue to stay at these levels and they are able to pay down debt without dilution.
buy ya some PEIX...I am loving this from 3 bucks to 15. Won't even day trade it...Warren Buffet on this one...just keep holding for 30 bucks.
Hope you got some. Still think it has legs. Also...keep an eye on DGAZ. Nat Gas trade getting worn out. Still some record draws on Nat Gas storage leaving questions about re fill this summer...but if the price is right, producers will fill. If Nat Gas reaches 5 bucks again...I would load up on DGAZ.
Also...look at shorting VXX again if VIX goes back to 18 to 20...or short UVXY if there are shares available with your brokerage. Look at NUGT for a short if gold continues to climb...or buy DUST if you think gold will correct.
You guys do not realize that pre split...ghart saved many of us some cash. Enjoy your profits and happy that people investing are making money. Just make sure you educate yourself as to IRE being the ADR to BKIR and understand how it works and who is in control of the ADR. BNY Mellon. Also...keep an eye on Euro vs dollar and parity between the ADR and the parent.
Good luck and may we all be profitable.
I see this as positive, but lets be realistic. How many longs are holding into earnings? Once bitten, twice shy? I held last earnings and averaged down and am now way up. I have been putting stops in, but does no good until earnings. As a long, I am waiting for earnings announcement and if it pops I will make a decision to sell rather than be locked in to after hours plunge.
Lets take an honest poll here. Those who have been long pre last earnings. Sell, Hold, Buy.
Fight China's Smog with Ethanol, Says Chen Lin
TICKERS: GPRE, MMT, PEIX, POE, RDS.A; RDS.B, CVE, VLO
Source: Peter Byrne of The Energy Report (2/6/14)
Chen Lin In decades past, we have seen that any commodity China really wants goes through the roof. We saw it in copper. We saw it in oil. We saw it in liquefied natural gas. If China starts mandating a 5% blend of ethanol to gasoline, ethanol should trade on par with gasoline. So says Chen Lin, author of the widely read newsletter What is Chen Buying? What is Chen Selling? But there's more to the story: because China produces no ethanol, U.S. ethanol producers could be looking at a massive new market, not to mention a spike in profit margins. In this interview with The Energy Report, Chen discloses his favorite ethanol picks, as well as some compelling fracking names.
COMPANIES MENTIONED: GREEN PLAINS RENEWABLE ENERGY INC. : MART RESOURCES INC. : PACIFIC ETHANOL INC. : PAN ORIENT ENERGY CORP. : ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC : TERRACE ENERGY : VALERO ENERGY CORP.
The Energy Report: In your newsletter, What Is Chen Buying/Selling?, you make the argument that China is a potentially important market for ethanol. Why is that?
Chen Lin: On my visit to China last summer, I experienced the air pollution problem firsthand. The No. 1 concern of the Chinese people is the huge blanket of smog covering major parts of China. How would you like to breathe smog every day? The good news is that because ethanol contains oxygen, it can significantly reduce smog from car emissions. In the U.S., it is very common to blend 10% ethanol into gasoline to reduce pollution.
In the U.S., ethanol is priced much cheaper than gasoline. In the futures market, gasoline is trading at $2.80, while ethanol is at $1.80. These prices change every day, but right now, that is a spread of $1. The truth of the matter is that it is much cheaper to run cars on ethanol than gasoline.
But there is a shortage of ethanol in China, and only a few places sell blended gasoline. There is great potential for China to massively import ethanol from the U.S. in order to reduce pollution and cheapen motorists' gasoline.
TER: Does China have the potential to produce its own ethanol?
CL: China is a food importer. China imports corn; it imports soy beans. Inside China, food costs are much higher than in the U.S. It is not at all economic to use corn in China to make ethanol.
TER: How can junior firms developing ethanol resources benefit from the increased use in ethanol in China and around the globe?
CL: Corn is the main cost for the junior ethanol producers. And the corn price is at a historical low, thanks to the huge harvest last year. We know that corn runs in multiyear cycles. Inventories build up. As a result of this large supply, ethanol producers' margins are at historical highs. If China's imports pick up, the ethanol price will go even higher. In conclusion, the margin for ethanol producers will be very high for at least a year or two. China is a big wild card. If China starts to import a large quantity of ethanol, we could see a multiyear bull market.
TER: Do you think the government would put any barriers on the import of ethanol, or would it encourage it?
CL: The main concern of the Chinese government and the Chinese people is pollution—not the gross domestic product. Smog sickness overrides almost anything. In November of last year, for the first time in many years, China started to import a significant amount of ethanol from the U.S. This could be the start of a trend of ever-increasing imports of U.S. ethanol.
TER: Are the engines of cars that are used on Chinese roads less efficient in terms of pollution than engines used in the U.S.?
CL: General Motors Co. (GM:NYSE) is one of the largest car producers in China, so the engines are quite similar to ours. We can fuel our engines with 10% ethanol. Brazil uses a 25% ethanol blend. China has basically no ethanol in its gasoline. The whole point of ethanol is to reduce pollution. I do not see any barriers ramping up the use of ethanol: I see a potentially dramatic increase in ethanol exports from the U.S. to China.
TER: If and when ethanol markets increase in China, how will that impact the refining industry for that product?
CL: Some gasoline refineries in the U.S. are also ethanol producers—such as Valero Energy Corp. (VLO:NYSE). Valero just reported huge earnings and a huge profit jump in its ethanol product line for Q4/13. Now may be the time for the larger ethanol producers to buy up the junior ethanol companies at low prices.
TER: Do you have any picks for us in the ethanol realm?
CL: I have been buying Pacific Ethanol Inc. (PEIX:NASDAQ). This company just came back from bankruptcy. It is trading at a very small fraction of what it was trading at a few years ago. It is based on the West Coast, which means that it benefits from West Coast ethanol prices being $0.40–0.60 higher than in the Midwest, thanks to the shortage of the railcars used to transport ethanol. Pacific Ethanol has a 160 million gallons ( 160Mgal)/year capacity right now. It may increase that capacity to 200 Mgal/year when it opens its fourth plant, which is likely to occur this year. Pacific Ethanol is the absolute cheapest ethanol company. And its stock is only $6–7 so it is trading 1x below its operating income.
Another company I own is Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc. (GPRE:NASDAQ). Similar to Valero, it has about a 1 Bgal/year ethanol production capacity. It is much bigger, which makes it an excellent takeover target for any refiner that wishes to get into the ethanol business.
TER: If Chinese demand increases, how will that affect these two companies?
CL: There is an abundance of ethanol in the U.S., and it's very effective in reducing car pollution. In decades past, we have seen that any commodity China really wants goes through the roof. We saw it in copper. We saw it in oil. We saw it in liquefied natural gas. If China starts mandating a 5% blend of ethanol to gasoline, then ethanol could easily trade on par with gasoline.
India imported a large quantity of ethanol in November. What if many countries start to follow Brazil and blend 25% ethanol into the gasoline? That's the future. If this trend is confirmed, ethanol will boom for years to come.
Kelly...please stop. I am long..but your posts are as annoying as ray. Please stop. You act like you are desperate.
Keep an eye on ETF DGAZ. This natural gas trade has been awesome past few months. I have continued to trade both UGAZ and DGAZ. DGAZ is setting up for a mega trade as we work through the rest of winter. Do your DD. Keep an eye on storage reports that come out every Thursday at 10:30 pm. Storage continues to be well below 5 yr average and the recent cold will support Natural Gas prices at current levels. Forecasts are calling for a break, but possibility of warming first week in Feb.
My thesis....producers will turn up the wick with prices rising and storage will eventually catch up with demand. This trade could take awhile to reap benefits, but I believe the move in NG prices today was some short squeezing. I do not believe that DGAZ has ever reverse split, but it could happen. Storage report tomorrow at 10:30 am and is expected to be bullish for price of NG but may already be priced in.
Also would like your opinion on PEIX. Has been quite a ride. They have not announced earnings yet...but the anticipation is that it will be good.
We need to build infrastructure to move it. Liberal policies and environmental geeks stop it. Example...look at what East Coast ie...New York is paying for nat gas now versus midwest. Oh...I forgot...East and Left coast pay more for everything.
Keep this in mind...we have more natural gas supply in the ground in this country than we need. When the price justifies opening up supply...they will bring it. Lets hope that all companies who depend upon natural gas have hedged. We have more supply than demand..the price has not justified opening up supply. Keep any eye on future weather forecasts and storage reports every Thursday at 10:30 am.
I bought more today on the dip. Am trading natural gas through ETF UGAZ and made a killing today. I am up on PEIX, so might as well add to the position and cash out of UGAZ. Keep an eye on Nat Gas into next Thursday storage report. If you can pick the top in NG....you could make a ton by buying DGAZ...bear nat gas. I may start building a large position in DGAZ if Nat Gas continues to go up. The weather is the key. Storage is already below 5 year average and these cold shots continue to produce record draws. Do your DD...this trade is not for the faint of heart.
Need to do some DD of my own and see the impact of natural gas prices to input costs for PEIX.
You are an idiot. I am up 120 percent on my shares in my personal Ameritrade account. I am up 107 percent on my shares in my 401k account that I control through Ameritrade.
I do agree...the most successful investors trade long and short. But...I hope you are not averaging your short shares as this climbs...will be a widow maker for shorts. It is momentum...even though it does not make sense...look at TSLA...and now TWTR.
wellhellrex...you can go to most message boards and the more I read I cannot believe that there are people who actually think what they post has a difference in the daily trading of the pps. Not just bashers...but the pumpers can be just as annoying. There should be a yahoo finance message board poll....have you ever bought shares in a company based upon what you read on a yahoo message board. Have you ever sold shares of a company based upon what you read on a yahoo message board.
No reason to ask Biff. There are pumpers and there is Ray. I am holding long, but am also tired of the pumpers more than bashers. I am happy with the performance of the stock, but nervous about holding into earnings. The management of this company has not taken care of stockholders. The reason I continue to hold is because of insider activity that we have not seen before. I am still nervous that earnings will beat, but management will use the PPS to dilute to raise cash. And...we will see insiders start selling and taking profits. But..I must ask...does anyone here really think that your posts make a difference in the activity of the PPS....LOL
I am long only 1600 shares since 3.46. I bought these shares because I am conservative and this was my spec play. I tried to buy more when it pulled back below 5 bucks but missed the bid for another 3000 shares by 5 cents. Since then, I have been procrastinating that I would buy more on any pullback. However, I bought this with the mindset that I did not care to lose all of my investment...purely a spec play. I still am not sure that I can stomach holding into earnings with the last quarter fiasco.
We still are not even to a buck pre split, so it has to have more room to run. If they can report earnings without any noise, we should see another spike. With the volume, it has to be under accumulation. I keep waiting for volume to dry up as we get closer to earnings. There will also be many longs that have been burnt to many times who own this that will probably sell into earnings, so you may have a chance to get back in.
Hey TX...I am long PEIX....but is this the only long you have,,,I am exhausted reading the posts here from repeat posters. No need to pump. No need to reply to every poster. The pumpers here make my stomach turn as much as the bashers.