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Curis, Inc. Message Board

market_ace 16 posts  |  Last Activity: May 23, 2016 10:26 AM Member since: Feb 9, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Technicals

    by bobjoe4150 Mar 2, 2016 5:35 PM
    market_ace market_ace Mar 2, 2016 9:52 PM Flag

    Agree with the overall analysis. The two year chart has gaps in the 2-3 range which should allow it to run up fairly quickly if we get a bit of volume as you noted.

    You mentioned stops -- no one should be setting these if they have they have the long-term in mind with ATHX. If the stroke story hits the right news outlet and larger players start to piece together the big picture (which leads through Japan), you are at risk for being out of the stock as it makes a multi-dollar move. Sit tight, load up on dips, and don't worry about today's market value. This could be huge.

    good luck -
    ace

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • will set in motion the direction of ATHX stock for the next 6-12 months. The company's 70% rise YTD is not a random event -- it has occurred because Multistem has now shown to be effective beyond placebo in a one year trial, and some investors have taken notice.

    But it is likely that much of the significant investment money (i.e., institutional money) still thinks that the path to product launch is a US one -- that is, a long course of trial planning and enrollment followed by a 12-18 month Phase III trial. I'd propose that as a theory as to why ATHX's Market Cap is a RIDICULOUS sub-$200M.

    Therefore, IMO the key points for Gil and team to hit are:
    -- Stroke is a market without a true competitor (!)
    -- Japan approval is a faster path than US
    -- Japan's bar is set lower than US, and Multistem has been shown to pass it already
    -- The product is safe
    -- The product is more easily manufactured and retained than Mesoblast's cells

    The team has to know that there will be "eyes" watching this earnings call, and that this is an important event to get the institutions on board with ATHX. Gil, we will be cheering you on!

    All of this is IMO, do your own Due Diligence.

    good luck -
    ace

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What is said on Thursday, 3/10 ...

    by market_ace Mar 6, 2016 6:34 PM
    market_ace market_ace Mar 7, 2016 8:43 PM Flag

    I will also add that ATHX is behaving well technically, working a bullish wedge pattern with higher lows since the big breakout day of Feb 18. If you look at a 3 month bar chart you can see it very clearly. We are still within that session's bar (high of $2.15), but with a bit of range compression lately.

    I expect a move to the upside out of the wedge pattern in the next several sessions.

    good luck -
    ace

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What is said on Thursday, 3/10 ...

    by market_ace Mar 6, 2016 6:34 PM
    market_ace market_ace Mar 7, 2016 9:18 PM Flag

    I am much more of a chart analyst than a science guy, so I'll give you the short answer on what I know and append a couple of items that others have posted here from reliable sources:

    - MESO uses MSCs
    - ATHX uses MAPCs
    From what I've been able to gather, MAPCs are superior to MSCs in two areas - their production / storage, and their expansion of use

    (athersyss) Athersys is developing allogeneic (off-the-shelf), multipotent adult progenitor cells (MAPCs), derived from adult bone marrow. MAPCs are highly proliferative, enabling the production of millions of clinical doses from a single adult donor. The cells can be frozen and stably stored for at least seven years. Dosage can also be significantly higher than mesenchymal stem cells (MSC), with 1.2bn cells administered in a single dose.

    (wood111111, from 'Nature' magazine)
    In conclusion, the use of stem cell-based immunotherapy is very promising. So far, in vitro studies showed comparable suppressive effects for hMSCs and hMAPCs, although the broader expansion capacities of hMAPCs make them more attractive for clinical use
    The extensive proliferation potential of hMAPCs allows banking of large amounts of cells for their clinical use. Moreover, the immunomodulatory properties of hMAPCs make it possible to use them as a universal donor. Therefore, a clinical grade, large-scale expanded product has been developed based on the MAPC technology (Multistem). Genomic and epigenetic stability of Multistem during long-term culture expansion has been confirmed, and preclinical studies demonstrated the safety of administration in repeat dosing regimens in BM transplant settings.94, 95

    Google MSC's vs MAPC's look for this title .... Immunological characteristics of human mesenchymal stem cells and multipotent adult progenitor cells

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SMART accumulation today!

    by jerry.logan Mar 7, 2016 2:29 PM
    market_ace market_ace Mar 8, 2016 10:01 AM Flag

    I am loving the volume this AM - 50% of daily avg in first half hour !!

    good luck -
    ace

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Any ideas??

    by entroeleven11 Mar 8, 2016 11:36 PM
    market_ace market_ace Mar 9, 2016 9:49 AM Flag

    It is certainly interesting that we are seeing higher AH prices each night after the close, then a higher open each early morning - often with some volume. Yesterday there were 350K shares traded in the first half hour.

    Someone recently speculated that this could be Japanese investor activity, which would make sense. You don't see the institutions rushing to buy shares at the open on upticks.

    We are still building a really nice chart pattern here ahead of the 3/10 call.

    good luck -
    ace

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What is said on Thursday, 3/10 ...

    by market_ace Mar 6, 2016 6:34 PM
    market_ace market_ace Mar 11, 2016 10:15 AM Flag

    I think we got exactly what we were looking for out of the Thursday call. Thanks Gil and team !!

    Now let's see ATHX break above $2.15 on some volume (which we certainly have this AM) .... there is little resistance until the $3 level on the chart!

    good luck-
    ace

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ... on a generally rough day across the board for the bio sector. $2.20 held on the downside - certainly it appears that a green day is very possible once again. Volume is holding well.

    good luck -
    ace

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Like the stock action today ...

    by market_ace Mar 15, 2016 12:52 PM
    market_ace market_ace Mar 15, 2016 5:10 PM Flag

    Very positive finish, as we grabbed some green moments before closing flat on 900K+ shares. Long and strong ATHX !!

    good luck -
    ace

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • market_ace by market_ace Mar 17, 2016 11:19 AM Flag

    has been consistent over the past couple of weeks, as the bulk of volume is occurring by 2PM on a regular basis. IMO this is very positive.

    Next chart resistance appears to be $2.55-$2.60 - if you take a look at the 5 year chart you can draw a descending trendline of tops that crosses that area. Breaking through this level would be very bullish technically.

    good luck -
    ace

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This stock continues to show great strength. We have not seen three straight down days since early Feb, and after our most recent two day "breather" on Fri/Mon, we are now at new intraday highs on increasing volume.

    Long and strong!

    good luck -
    ace

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    After two red days, ATHX moving higher now

    by market_ace Mar 22, 2016 12:13 PM
    market_ace market_ace Mar 22, 2016 12:49 PM Flag

    For any charties out there, check out the peaks on the 5yr or 10yr ATHX chart (in log scale, of course) and you will immediately see that we are at a critical technical level right now, on the doorstep of reversing 5 and 10 year downtrend lines. A break on volume would be a major long-term trend reversal.

    good luck -
    ace

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Technicals

    by bobjoe4150 Mar 23, 2016 11:35 AM
    market_ace market_ace Mar 23, 2016 12:03 PM Flag

    Spot on analysis, and glad to see that I've got a fellow chartist here on the board. It will be interesting to see how long we consolidate for here.

    good luck -
    ace

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Not surprised at the sharp pullback here, being up over 100% since January -- the spike to $2.90 was just too much, too fast. This little settling out period sets up up nicely to make a strong run at taking out the next key resistance level, which breaks 5 and 10 year downtrend lines of declining tops as I have noted previously.

    IBB up 4% through midday today provides us a nice backdrop to start moving up again. Long and strong.

    good luck -
    ace

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Chart for ATHX

    by jrdelane May 6, 2016 6:36 PM
    market_ace market_ace May 6, 2016 7:26 PM Flag

    jr -

    Excellent analysis and spot on. I agree that the shorts really want to take this down to get out at a decent level - today's hard drops were all the evidence I needed of that. If we build from here the chart will continue to look very good.

    good luck -
    ace

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • market_ace by market_ace May 23, 2016 10:26 AM Flag

    Sure looks like we are ready to bust this wedge to the upside and challenge that major downtrend line that dominates the ATHX 5-year chart.

    I'm locked and loaded with shares, so let's go!

    good luck -
    ace

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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