1. trouble in many important producers (Venezuela, Nigeria, etc.)
2. shale oil production falling rapidly
3. Demand stable
4. Iran production not returning as fast as expected
5. Technicals shift bullish, yet bearishness still high (a contrary indicator). Bullish consensus still low.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
If 93% are bullish, they have already bought. Only 7% is a thin margin for any rally to continue. Bullishness has never been this high in bonds, coinciding with almost record low rates.
When bullish consensus gets this excessive (as measured by bond futures), it may indicate at least a correction or at least a stall is near. May sell some of my TLT if this bullish complacency continues.
Stll haven't sold the other half of my position, but I will on a close below $130.
And if the dollar corrects, commodities could really take off.
Floods, droughts, maybe both, who knows. Get you JJG & DBA while it's cheap, like now. Could be very profitable later.
If Ag turns around, AGCO should do OK but probbaly bigger % gains in DBA, JJG, POT, MOS, CORN. All are really beaten down.
That would be nice. Also have some calls in XON, another lottery ticket with a real good story.
Debt to equity ratio of 100 is way too high imho. Pay the debt down would be my advise.
In the long run, would make the co. stronger. Debt is too big.
Also concerned by very negative article on bonds by Randall Fortsyth in latest Barron's (Feb. 8) "Up and Down Wall Street" column.
Also a concern--even in the worst of the 2008/09 crash, TLT never was this high. Due for a pause perhaps?
If it trades below $130, will sell the rest.
Feldstein, former Chairman of the Council of Econ. Advisors, now a Harvard Professor, said that the FED is way behind the curve in raising rates. He appeared on CNBC's "Squawkbox" show, interviewed by Joe Kernan and Mike Santolli. "Feldstein said that the Fed Funds rate should be 2% above the current level of inflation (almost 2% ex energy), which would put the "correct" or natural levele at 4%. Feldstein also said that long bonds should be yielding about 6%,, and that the current low level of rates & high prices represent a bubble. Feldstein also said that stocks are also about 40% overvalued. A 6% long bond yield would represent a TLT price of approximately $65.
The best bull case is that the rally carries into the 1st week of Jan; or the reversal could occur next week. In any event, it seems like a time to be cautious.
Bought a few today, just in case. Don't spend very much, yet fully exposed to potential reversal in the next few weeks. This up-down volatility is very characteristic of topping markets.
MACD sell signal, rel. strength fading, on balance volume fading, perhaps most bearish. FB stock appears to be completing the right shoulder of a head & shoulders top. Test of 50 day moving average likely (near $99) and possibly 200 day later ($89). Technicals suggest caution.