Oh and should I mention that violence in April kills at least 741 Iraqis as Iraq PM Orders Arrests After Breach of Baghdad's Green Zone. But the problem now is the Iraq army might not follow Prime Ministers orders and then we have Total Chaos.
and $1400 an ounce come Friday next week. ALL ABOARD. And if U.S. non-farm payroll number drops Friday morning gold heads for $1500 the following week. Dollar head South and Gold ROARS higher,
Total chaos now in half of Middle East as "Gold" get ready to fly over $1500 an ounce.
Thousands, of protesters angry at government inaction stormed the city's Green Zone and the Iraqi Parliament building. It was the first time the fortified zone housing government buildings and the U.S. Embassy has been penetrated since 2003. Images broadcast on state-run news channel Al-Iraqiya showed protesters carrying Iraqi flags walking freely in the Green Zone and gathering in the halls and meeting rooms in Parliament. They chanted, "The cowards ran away," referring to the members of Parliament.
because Janet is sharpening her "Fed Hike Pencil" and ready to put it to paper next month or June at latest. Never ever go long SPY heading into a 100% guaranteed Fed Rate hike in 25 to 50 days.
Yes but the Captain can't afford medical treatment and Tennille still sleeps in separate beds with her new boyfriend. Spy down $206 tomorrow and that's a conservative estimate.
and sometimes they happen right out of thin air. Spy sub $200 come next Wednesday and sub $190 early May. Remember - the Fed is "forced" to jack rates either in May or June and the Bull won't be able to handle that.
A new draft of a deal to freeze oil output that is to be agreed later on Sunday in Doha has a line saying all OPEC members should be part of the agreement, industry sources said. The change appears to be a major obstacle for clinching a binding deal, given that OPEC member Iran had decided not to send representatives to the meeting. REUTERS
and since Saudi Arabia has come out and said "No Iran - No Deal" I'm putting my money on the $5 drop per barrel of oil. So who is with me?
for two reasons.
1. Bad news - if passed Doha freeze deal will be watered down as oil drops $2 Monday
Really Bad news - If not passed Oil drop to $35 a barrel with no floor in sight.
Place your bets.
and it appears come Sunday Iran will throw a mighty right hook to oil's gut and send it back to $35 a barrel Monday morning. BOOM
Market will struggle to stay green tomorrow and will certainly be Major Red after Fed Speak at 2 pm. If Fed Minutes show Fed members disagreeing on rate hike, then market dives knowing that any future signs of economy strengthening and the rate hike is on for MAY. If the Fed minutes show a solid majority still want to hold off rate hikes until June, market sells off knowing misses the boat again and make another idiot move to delay and kick the can down the road. Yellen is looking like the ALL TIME DOVE SHE IS. Problem is Doves sometimes do bad things to statues and long investors who believe the Fed will never ever raise rates again this year. Going to be really ugly before and especially after 2 pm tomorrow.
but that's only a drop in the bucket compared to Russians and Chinese caught red handed in the Biggest Off Shore Scam" of all Time. Talk about Massive Volatility now hitting the news, day in day out for weeks on end.
so please don't go long oil over the next few months or you will lose your shirt (among other things).
WSJ - Refineries will start long-deferred maintenance in the next few weeks, and that will limit their demand for oil, even while gasoline and diesel prices are likely to keep getting support from the limited supply, analysts at Wolfe Research LLC said in a note released overnight.“All that maintenance work can’t be indefinitely postponed,” they said. “There remains a significant threat to crude for the next several months, which in turn could push oil back into mid $20's.”
With it trading under $30 it sure looks tempting to buy and hold (long) but (as in the past) when ever I've bought the Fed has crushed me a few days later. Next week Yellen addresses interest rates and I'm thinking she does nothing for March but strongly hints a rate hike will come in May/June. That's so far off I assume market goes higher but trading now seems to come to two things. Oil and the Fed and I have no idea which way oil is going or the Fed for that matter.
If Fed is data driven to bump rates higher - as Yellen has stated for last 2 years. But her dove feather always seem to clutter her brain so I'm guessing she sits on her hands next week as says "its slow as we go" thus push Uvxy down to mid $20 maybe lower. Go luck to anyone who hold (long) over weekend and into next week.
Timber - oil producers responding to rising prices with increased production will find the same low demand for the black stuff. There is no great global economic lift-off on the horizon. Inventories of oil would increase again, pushing prices down.
In the meantime, the rig count suggests that Saudi Arabia continues to plan for higher levels of supply. While Saudi Arabia and OPEC have talked intermittently about increasing demand and decreasing supply, about minute increases for use during Ramadan and even about the possibility of caps on production, their actions have not always comported with the distracting, laissez-faire attitude suggested by their commentary. The February rig count was only one rig shy of the kingdom’s all-time high set in December, an increase of four rigs over its January count. And its January production was higher than December by a volume roughly equal to the downward effect of all of the forces of supply and demand on U.S. production.