(Just an FYI) I verified the article is for real. Thanks for sharing, Vegas.
By the way, when Motley Fool asks for an email address before letting you read the article, don't let it stop you... You can put in a gibberish fake address and pass through.
In a nutshell the article really doesn't say too much, just some generic info about the "internet of everything" being a growing hot market, and a little about CAMP being a player "sitting in the middle" of it. But a top pick is a top pick, so I don't doubt it's moving the stock for now. Though I can find no call outs to the article on the main pages of the MF website, so it seems like it takes a little digging (or maybe it gets emailed out to all their subscribers. Dunno).
Start by shrinking down the new bloated TDA fonts back to "normal" levels. In my case at least, that's holding down CTRL and then turning the Mouse-Wheel a couple clicks. Next step for me was editing the "Custom Views" on the Balances & Positions page, to make sure I had only the most important columns displaying, and avoiding the dreaded horizontal scroll bars.
Finally, I pressed the "Pat myself on the back" button for long ago abandoning TDA for Schwab's Streetsmart Edge, a tool that is light years ahead in user customization and ease of use. While I still need to keep a TDA account around, I make as minimal use of their site/tool as possible, figuring out trades & monitoring everything from Streetsmart Edge instead.
Dec calls: why lock in taxes for this year when the next tax year is so close? Most people shouldn't have much in the way of stock market losses this year to take gains against ;), it's been one heck of a year!
I would guess the Dec call seller doesn't expect CAMP to close higher than $25+call premium (around $26), and was looking to reduce the price of the share purchase assuming it was indeed a buy-write. But who knows, there are so many potential angles. If I wanted to get long CAMP shares while it felt like the price could be a little high, but was worried it might get away from me if I waited, then I'd look at a buy-write w/ short term expiration too. Either you get the shares at a discount thanks to pocketing the premium, or you get called out for both the gain ($25 minus purchase price) plus the premium. Win/Win, assuming the stock doesn't tank.
Well, in this case, they would sell at 24.18 so that they could then re-buy at 23.78 (at the time of this post). Or possibly lower.
I think we have to remember that there's a lot going on under the surface that we have no insight into. You're assuming there are (semi) rational, retail investors behind this price action, who buy-and-hold like you do. Likely the long term investors are having no impact on the stock price behaviors you are observing/commenting on, except when the price gets very out of whack.
Maybe instead it's a matter of short-term momentum players, day-traders, and pro traders with lots of capital that play stocks that they can manipulate on a daily or weekly basis. When daily volume gets low on CAMP mid-quarter, these guys can easily "have their way" with this stock, with no reaction from the bigger investors who have placed their bets for the quarter and are waiting patiently for the next earnings release. By shorting or simply selling shares they own, these traders may encourage antsy investors to panic or lock-in gains. You know, shake the tree... Then accumulate at a lower price. Rinse and repeat. I'm sure there are other angles too.
Given that we don't have to wait longer than a quarter for CAMP to have an earnings release that will set things straight (for the longs), I personally don't so much mind some of these fluctuations. It can allow for some opportunities. I think I posted a week ago that I deployed some additional capital on CAMP when it dropped below $22.50 a little over a week ago... I probably couldn't have done that otherwise without these big fluctuations. But there's still a lot of time between now and the next earnings release, so there's plenty of opportunity for trading mischief.
Most of us would like that gift, though it seems a bit optimistic for the timeframe!
Speaking of the next earnings -- does anyone want to guess at the release date? I figure Thursday 12/19.
Uhhh, I thought William was talking about NEXT Friday! Yes, that's it. And if CAMP isn't above $23.10 next Fri, then I'll assume he meant the Friday after that! ;).
Per the investing sages/financial advisors @ Monty Python: "No one expects the Spanish Inquisition... Or days like Thurs 11/7/13, either!!"
For what it's worth.. If he made a typo and meant $21 instead of $11 (I think he wrote that when the stock was $22's?).. Then honestly, even with my large bull position, I wouldn't begrudge him his sentiment. It would be a fair/reasonable possibility especially given yesterday's action and knowing there were macro market catalysts coming today.
Now, if he truly meant to say $11, then obviously that's the stuff of pure fantasy, and we'd have to dump him into the bucket with the rest of the obnoxious, lying, manipulative, shortie #$%$ :). Along with his 50-100 short shares :)
FYI... I am starting deploying a little (long term) powder here at these near/sub-$22.50 levels.
Today is ugly, no doubt about it, on the heels of many days of volatility that is typical in the "middle part" between CAMP earnings releases. But, the key is that indeed this is traders playing around with the stock, trying to shake the tree, etc, while the investors look on and wait until the next earnings release. The tree was easier to shake this time around since we probably had a greater influx of momentum traders and perhaps some stayed in a bit too long, who knows. In the mean time there's no news or change to CAMP's solid growth story.
I save some CAMP dry powder for times like these... I may be employing some soon, usually one doesn't have to wait longer than the next earnings call to be proven a winner.
Hey, I'll play that game ;). Between $23.10 and $24.45! How's that for precision? :)
CAT is a $55 billion company, with great products, earning $5.5 billion this year. It may have some management/forecasting issues and sales may be very troubled for a while due to the global economic situation, but it's a solid, profitable company that isn't going away ;). It must continue to evolve its products, and the dollar scope of the initial CAMP deal is barely a rounding error for them. Not investing in and integrating this sort of tech would put them at a competitive disadvantage; the tech is clearly where the industry (and other industries) are moving.
In other words, I agree the deal is just fine and as a CAMP investor I would have little reason to worry about CAT's recent earnings miss (though it was bad!). Personally I've felt the bigger value in the deal will be the extra PR and street cred/legitimacy that CAMP will have from the association, with an improved ability to bring in more deals with big clients as a result. "If we're good enough for CAT, we're good enough for you."
Yup, though if the overall market had a stronger sell-off over the course of several days, that would be a much more telling test for CAMP than yesterday's minor down day. That said, the stock has given plenty of time for profit takers and nervous hands to get out between $25-$26, and a lot of shares have now traded above $25, building a new higher foundation as you said.
Like W123, for the next couple months I think "generally sideways" is the most reasonable scenario. I'd guess that on low volume days, the stock price will typically trickle down with small orders, and once it gets trickled down enough (possibly days later), someone will step in with larger orders and drive the price right back up. Rinse and repeat for a bit.
Good luck to all longs!
For what it's worth, nitacs... A little ways back I had made the same argument to you about not responding to Spanspur/TJ, and instead putting him on ignore. But I must admit, in your case I've since changed my mind (though I agree if you respond too frequently or too long after he's posted a topic, you are just bumping his posts to the top unnecessarily and hurting your own cause a little).
Once I put Spanspur/TJ on ignore, the forum changed. The clutter and garbage disappeared. (I'll now add the "wolftts" alias to ignore too; same gig). It was a little weird for the first few days after I Ignored, since I'd grown so accustomed to the constant lies over the years, and a couple times I actually wondered what the freak was trying to do to mislead people. But -- knowing that you weren't ignoring him and would stay on the case quickly banished that thought. Now I'm enjoying the forum a lot more without concern. So now I say instead: Thank you!
I will humbly suggest that as long as you plan to continue policing, that you encourage anyone you see who hasn't put the loser's aliases on ignore, to do so. If someone complains about you responding, they aren't actually using Ignore on Spanspur/TJ, and have no one but themselves to blame for the clutter.
Yeah, after putting Spanspur/TrueJesus on ignore recently, it's amazing how much the board cleans up and looks "respectable". Anyone who hasn't done so, I really recommend giving it a shot (for both aliases). You'll still have the ability to easily "Unignore" later if you decide you want to check back in for a reminder of what you were previously enduring. But you won't want to! :)
I've actually been a CAMP investor since the 1990's, and have checked this forum off and on for many years. I just didn't bother to start posting here until around a year ago (and created this alias around the time I did) because I thought I might help investors who were scared about Wireless Matrix. Spanspur's tactics are not new to me at all, nor to other CAMP investors I know who have long since written this forum off (as "the Spamspur show").
I understand what you mean re: him being "dangerous", but the same tactic of engaging him has been tried over and over again for years and isn't changing anything. Every time you or another regular replies, it just bumps his posts up and calls more attention to it. I totally appreciate you are taking the time to identify his deceptions for what they are, and all else equal, it's a good thing that I'm not really "complaining" about. I'm just thinking it's time to try a new tactic for a little while (before potentially returning to that tactic, if needed). As I've suggested on other threads: consider composing a well-worded warning message about Spanspur, with an attention-getting title. And then instead of giving his posts attention and perpetuating his topics, we can all keep "bumping" the warning every few days so no one new can read the forum's topics w/o hitting it. You can even include Spanspur quotes to make your case, he has given you plenty of material :).
I also agree re: him being a great contrarian indicator. But if he actually traded the way he claims to feel, he would have been bankrupt a long time ago.
I think the new tactic could save you a lot of time in the long-run, and not replying gives less spotlight and implied legitimacy to the spam he creates ad naseum. I would like to see this forum improve and attract new members/posters. But I can't say how much the tactic change would help, and I'm not going to keep pushing.
Nitacs, respectfully and for the benefit of all of us, would you consider no longer responding to Spanspur like many of us, and preferably put him on "Ignore"? As the saying goes, "Don't feed the trolls." You know he's a fear-mongering manipulator who does not listen to rational arguments, he has his game that he likes to play, facts be damned, and he's going to play his games no matter what anyone says. The only answer is for all of us to ignore him so he's only talking to himself. Thanks.
Thanks for sharing. Yeah, that's a sizable, price-moving amount of shares. And holding onto 50k is still "plenty". Glad to hear you will still be around and can participate in the continued CAMP long-term upside.
Good discipline not to have all eggs in one basket especially as we get closer to or enter retirement, though it sounds like you're in a lot of volatile alternatives. As a retiree, putting some eggs in different baskets may not help much if you're sticking all the baskets together on the passenger seat of an off-road truck ;). 5% stops will have their own issues of course but I'm sure you are aware of the basics. Good luck!!
Congrats, Mr. K! That must feel great. Is this the end for you with CAMP, now on to income-oriented stocks?
Only if you happen to be comfortable with sharing: would you mind giving a ballpark # for the quantity of shares you sold? I was watching CAMP orders all day, just curious "which was yours" especially as there was a rather large sale (over 100k shares) a little prior to your post, knocking $1 off the price.
Congrats again on the wonderful achievement.
Like Sarge said, it's a tough question. I suspect you may have a lot more confidence one way or the other within a week. If we are at or below $23 by end of the week, then it may be possible the stock will eventually trickle down to 20-21, especially in the last 6 weeks leading to the next earnings release. On the other hand, if in a week the stock has gotten even higher, well... It may then have built up enough of a buffer that when it does pull back off whatever the near-term peak is, it won't ever touch the levels you mentioned.
Some questions to remind yourself of are... Are you willing/able to commit to the stock again for the long term (1+ years), and where do you ultimately see the stock price getting to then? Do you believe in the $30 price target? (If the stock hit $30 in 1 year, that's a 30% return from $23!). The longer you are comfortable with holding, the less you will end up caring if in the short term you buy back in quickly and possibly end up paying $1-2 more per share than you could have paid later this year. If you don't buy back, you risk the possible alternative -- what if the stock instead heads to, say, $25? You'll feel even more uncomfortable about getting back in, and you'll have missed out in the added rise.
Put another way... As a matter of discipline I had sold off some shares this year in the mid $12's. I then ended up buying more shares around $15. Sure didn't like paying that "$2.5 more" at the time, but I knew I "had to". A few months later and it is long since forgotten, I'm just happy as hell I bought back in to "max allocation".
IMO, one thing that is different here than any times in the past few years.. I was always able to justify buying back at a higher share price based on fundamentals at the time. This time however, we're past the P/E I'd normally be comfortable with. But growth stocks tend to do this, and many others have run far harder yet they were loaded with debt and/or weren't even profitable.
Everyone -- this is spam, please ignore. Has been spammed across a bunch of different Yahoo forums today.