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SeaDrill Limited Message Board

marketgenie 5 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 19, 2014 2:41 PM Member since: Dec 11, 2012
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  • Just an observation: today PE is flagged with "Hard to borrow", at least per Schwab. I don't think it was flagged as such yesterday. Possibly some of the big selling today is shorts shaking the tree as opposed to longs who might have panicked and sold in the first couple days of declines post-earnings.

    FWIW, I'm long PE.

  • Reply to

    Options expire this Friday; so

    by stever665 Jul 16, 2014 1:30 PM
    marketgenie marketgenie Jul 21, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    Options expirations can have a very temporary, typically minor influence on a stock price. Between now and Dec expiration is at least 1 earnings release. IMO that is what will determine where the stock trades. Another ho-hum quarter with ho-hum guidance regarding growth, and yes, $17.50 is probably around where CAMP will remain, unless it's trading near or under there right before the ER, in which case post-ER it will likely go lower yet.

    If and when CAMP can show some major new contract(s) and give solid evidence that it can sustainably grow at a higher rate, then the stock will gain several dollars from where ever it is at the time, and should return to holding up in the $20's. Now, if you simply changed "after December" from your message to "after September expiration" (which is before the next ER), then you would have saved me all this typing ;).

  • Reply to

    Buy 17 call Jan 2015

    by baangzoom Jul 18, 2014 12:05 PM
    marketgenie marketgenie Jul 18, 2014 12:27 PM Flag

    Except, of course, that there is no January expiration open for CAMP ;)

  • Reply to

    Options expire this Friday; so

    by stever665 Jul 16, 2014 1:30 PM
    marketgenie marketgenie Jul 17, 2014 3:24 PM Flag

    Well, we'll know within about 24 hours :).

    On my end, I still haven't decided if I will exercise my Puts and get rid of some stock... Or keep the stock and get rid of the Puts, and then sell covered calls against the stock.

    Prior to seeing the next ER results, I don't have much conviction about the stock either way at this price level. It could gain back some ground on unexpected PR or upgrades like today, or it could stay as dead-money or trickle down like it's been doing lately. Especially as it's now firmly a "show me" stock and so far hasn't shown anything positive this year.

  • Reply to

    Options expire this Friday; so

    by stever665 Jul 16, 2014 1:30 PM
    marketgenie marketgenie Jul 17, 2014 1:47 PM Flag

    I could go either way re: thinking the options will make much difference in the stock price. If you add up the relatively small quantity of contracts in question ($17.5's & $20's), it really doesn't amount to a good risk/reward to employ the $$ that would be needed to move the stock significantly and keep it where you want it. Giving it a little nudge on the last day if it's near a strike price though could be fair game. Plenty of those contracts, long AND short, are in the hands of individual investors too. For example on the last options expiration, I had short positions in both $20 calls and $20 puts, so having contracts expire worthless benefited me, not some manipulating institution.

    But the latter point goes towards the other side of the argument, too... Last expiration, the stock closed at EXACTLY $20.00, making all $20 options (Calls & Puts) expire worthless. Practically the equivalent of flipping a coin and have it land on its edge...

    FYI I own around 10% of the $20 Puts that expire tomorrow, but in this particular case it was used as a hedge, so it's unlikely to make much difference to me where CAMP closes tomorrow (within reason).

28.26-2.09(-6.89%)Sep 19 4:03 PMEDT

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