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Melco Crown Entertainment Limited Message Board

marketmaker79 33 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 1, 2015 3:16 PM Member since: May 1, 2012
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  • marketmaker79 marketmaker79 Jul 1, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    If you believe that, you are crazy! No one is buying junkets in Macau ======EXCEPT FOR IKGH!

    They simply close up shop, they have no value, and the last 2 acquisitions almost destroyed the company! The only saving grace is that the acquisitions have performed so horrendously that it reduces or eliminates bonus payments. Do your research, and you will be in utter shock at how bad those deals were!

  • Analysts are expecting the new smoking ban proposal to have a substantial impact on revenues. This company has been on borrowed time for a while, I suspect if the ban is implemented, it will be the beginning of the end for IKGH.

    The chinese stock market is know for letting all sorts of questionable companies list on their exchange, yet they rejected IKGH because if it's horrible financial picture, what will it look like after another 20% is chopped off the top?

  • Reply to

    Better play at this point - WYNN or MPEL?

    by marketmaker79 Jun 27, 2015 8:51 AM
    marketmaker79 marketmaker79 Jun 27, 2015 8:24 PM Flag

    I suspect the studio city decision is a huge overhang on this stock, and perhaps rightfully so. If the table allotment is insufficient, it could technically push them into default. It looks like it's almost assumed they will not get anything close to the amount requested, so does that put them in a bad spot, or can they bully the minority stake holder into selling out at a greatly reduced price?

    I suppose the creditors have every incentive to renegotiate the terms, but they may be skittish since we have not yet seen a bottom in Macau.

    I'm curious if anyone has FY 2018 estimates for both companies that make the assumption all planned casinos are opened and fully operational?

    Such information would be appreciated, thank you.

  • I placed a decent sized buy order that didn't fill on Friday, perhaps that was a good thing.

    Has anyone compared WYNN to MPEL recently? I realize each have similar pro's and con's, while also presenting unique differences.

    From a valuation standpoint, should MPEL be worth more then WYNN?

    MPEL is now worth $ 10 Billion, while WYNN is worth less then $10. Billion.

    I was initially inclined to go with MPEL because they have less reliance on VIP, but that logic doesn't really seem to be acknowledged by the market, and they sell MPEL off just as hard, or harder.

    Sure there are diversification aspects. WYNN has the U.S., MPEL has Philippians. But has Manila turned out to be irrelevant in the big picture?

    Has anyone seen any analyst work that models out 2-3 years ahead and factors in the various openings?

    Does anyone know which casino let the triad boss open a new vip room after just being released from prison?

    Any constructive comments would be appreciated.

  • marketmaker79 marketmaker79 Jun 23, 2015 10:46 AM Flag

    I'm skeptical, I don't think a bottom is in.

    We could look at it a few ways, If GGR is trending to be 2010 numbers MPEL traded below $10.00.

    There was probably a mispricing, due to the recession, but there was optimism for growth.

    I don't really see things ever getting back to the good ol' days, so while picking a bottom is difficult, it seems easy to pick a top, say $45.00.

    I still think there is too much optimism in the Macau names to have bottomed. There is far too much bullishness still in these names, people banking on new supply creating demand and I worry that just isn't going to happen.

    I still have a few shares, but can't justify adding till we see how the Studio City tables come together, and how the Smoking Ban impacts Macau.

  • Reply to

    Harrah's New Orleans

    by matrixtrade123 Jun 10, 2015 10:29 AM
    marketmaker79 marketmaker79 Jun 10, 2015 5:48 PM Flag

    I still think there is too much optimism priced in to the Macau names. As posters are highlighting, we haven't even begun to feel the impact of the full smoking ban, it will absolutely hurt revenues.

    This can't be priced in yet, which means there is another shoe to drop. None of the Macau names are "values" yet, they are still richly priced p/e's with lots of potential disruption ahead. To warrant the gamble on the stabilization, you almost need a more attractive entry point.

    If I'm a Chinese high roller, why would I go to Macau when there are more and more options that are easier and not as risky to visit? Throw in the inability to chain smoke at the table and it's the last draw.

  • No one even claims this is a good company or a well run business anymore, they simply suggest you buy because the company is going to manipulate the price up via a buyback.

    They aren't wrong, this company has made some very ill timed buybacks over the years, that destroyed millions in shareholder value.

    So to those of you who played the game, congrats!

  • I understand the bagholders celebration right now, I do.

    But the business has deteriorated even further and the new across the board smoking ban will probably be the nail in the coffin.

  • Reply to

    up 46% since mistakemaker said

    by jugusheadus Jun 3, 2015 5:52 PM
    marketmaker79 marketmaker79 Jun 5, 2015 2:27 PM Flag

    LOL, I'm just saying the company is complete joke, that doesn't mean people won't trade irrationally.

    Just because the stock price has surged on another bad month for the company, doesn't mean it's a well run business.

  • Plus they probably lost a few million $$$ in May with the horrid hold and RCT.

  • Reply to

    buyback should start next week

    by brinerbriner May 28, 2015 10:28 AM
    marketmaker79 marketmaker79 May 28, 2015 5:54 PM Flag

    "the guide down is no surprise."

    Umm, sure it is! They already have 4 months in the bag, the lowered guidance implys they think it's STILL GOING TO GET WORSE!

    The guide down even caught Bain off guard, but then again I think everyone knows his record by now.

  • Reply to

    buyback should start next week

    by brinerbriner May 28, 2015 10:28 AM
    marketmaker79 marketmaker79 May 28, 2015 1:39 PM Flag

    Even reading through today's conference call, they speak of only buying when it's accretive, or the price is low (I thought that was already the case) and how conservative they will be with their capital going forward to position themselves to move into other markets.

    I don't anticipate them doing much with the buyback, maybe just some token purchases to keep people off their backs during conference calls.

  • Reply to

    buyback should start next week

    by brinerbriner May 28, 2015 10:28 AM
    marketmaker79 marketmaker79 May 28, 2015 1:30 PM Flag

    it's comical how martin has even thrown in the towel on pumping this pos.

    Too bad management has been dodgy when asked about the buyback, and if you listened to last quarter, it doesn't even sound like its on their radar at this time.

    When your sole reason for owning a stock is the premise that it should go up because of that, you know it's trouble!

  • he Company is adjusting its 2015 Rolling Chip Turnover guidance for its five existing VIP rooms in Macau to between US$7.0 billion and US$8.5 billion, from a previous range of US$8.5 billion and US$10.0 billion

  • Reply to


    by catcherofdrye Mar 18, 2015 10:10 PM
    marketmaker79 marketmaker79 May 27, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    You said it! it certainly is a possibility. Recycling someone else's trash made sense when the price of oil was making record highs.

    Now one must determine if the cost to stack these aging rigs even makes sense. If there is a prolonged downturn, I can't see inefficient older rigs getting much work, even on the decom jobs.

  • Reply to


    by catcherofdrye Mar 18, 2015 10:10 PM
    marketmaker79 marketmaker79 May 26, 2015 8:20 PM Flag

    Since this board attacked me for months when I warned to bail on this at all costs, I guess I was going to say I told you so, but that is not constructive. Most of my bashers have moved on, some remain. I'll continue to say it, the market will dictate the dividend. They will reduce it to approximately 15-25% annually, based on the market price at that time.

    I think the next dividend cut will be by at least 50%. Be careful with a 2 rig operation, that is quickly becoming a 1 rig operation.

  • Reply to

    Unbelievable Bain Still has an "analyst" job

    by bancroller1 May 26, 2015 7:37 PM
    marketmaker79 marketmaker79 May 26, 2015 8:13 PM Flag

    Bain has been the laughing stock of the group for some time. His strategy has always been to let the competent analysts put out reports, then he follows up a few weeks later with almost identical sentiment.

    He does go rogue on the price targets and is always way off.

    If you want to see him at his best, check out his coverage of what may be the worst possible gaming stock you could invest in IKGH.

    He had price targets on a penny stock of $21 not long ago. Since he's one of the only few covering the stock, he has no one to cheat off of and is left as a corporate cheerleader for IKGH. You couldn't make up how bad/wrong he has been.

    I use to play the game, who's right more often - David Bain or a broken clock. The broken clock never lost!

  • Reply to

    0.44 book value implies upside from here

    by topinvestgun1 May 16, 2015 12:12 AM
    marketmaker79 marketmaker79 May 18, 2015 5:35 PM Flag

    You say great businessmen know the importance of integrity, I couldn't agree more.... Especially in China!

    That is why the CEO and CFO just RESIGNED abruptly!

    The business is a disaster, so they did the honorable thing. Best decision they made since IKGH went public!

  • I love to swing in and buy distressed stocks when there is overselling, it doesn't always work, but if patient more often then not it will.

    Having said that, LL has a forward p/e of 17. So before even discussing the deterioration to the brand or potential for negative sales growth, how could this stock be trading so high?

    Why does this stock trade at such a high p/e multiple?

  • Reply to

    Short sellers

    by nourjianb May 1, 2015 12:17 PM
    marketmaker79 marketmaker79 May 6, 2015 8:57 AM Flag

    I don't think this is a short selling issue.

    Look at bio tech as a group, the entire group is getting hammered in the last few weeks. Add in patent issues and you have nothing but negative headwinds with ACOR until they have some good news to deliver. I'd like to get in this around $25.00

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