I'll throw in my 2 cents here, and preface it with yes I've been drinking again.... Jane isn't short this. She's scorned. She misplaced her trust with a certain SA analyst and is bitter. Jane if your reading this and you do want to short a spike, but deep down want to own this- Let's have a serious discussion about selling puts on MPEL. What price do you want to buy MPEL for? Get paid to do it, the OCT puts represent a reasonable volatility premium with VIX this high. I was fishing the WYNN $80's @ $5.00 and didn't miss by much. You called the drop, you could have profited, get the best of both worlds.
As a guy who's been short more then long the last few years (and not fared well) she's not short this. If she was, she'd be #$%$ when it jumps 5% on no news, there would be anger on the up days, not just i told you so, on the down days.
Having said that... Bancroller, I don't think she's those aliases. I think most of those other aliases are the same guy, but I don't think it's her, and if I missed that shame on me.
The verbiage didn't make it clear to me, and with only the input of the resident dimwit, It will be interesting to see what management has to say about this, but I'm not so sure they are getting paid.
I can't believe I missed that. I identified some of the other alias as Drjack, and once confronted him on his aliases and he admitted it. Jane was never one of them, I had Identified.
Drjack/toat/jug/martincampos/etc is one of the most despicable posters I have encountered on message boards. I did my best to expose him and save many of his potential victims. He specializes in engaging in boiler room tactics on equities with little or no institutional coverage. I understand why you seem fixated on exposing his lies and deceits, as I have been right there myself.
You are an intelligent poster that adds value here, I'm not as bullish as you on MPEL, but I always like to read the bull and the bear case and reach my own conclusions.
Your analytics and presentation speak of someone in fund management, I'm sure you do a fine job at it, even if the MPEL trade isn't going in your favor at the moment.
I'm curious why you refer to Jane as Doug? I believe that to be the name of the disgraced poster known as Dr jack.
I have a nominal amount of MPEL shares left, just enough to check this board periodically. I find this ongoing feud to be simply ego driven at this point. Jane once despised me, not nearly as much as you, but I didn't peg her for any of the aliases you have mentioned.
While Jane and I never had an official truce, I gained respect for her when I noticed she stopped accepting the opinions of analysts as fact, and began to extrapolate the data and form her own opinions.
I would speculate her misplaced trust has left her scorned and untrusting, and rightfully so, I believe this is because she followed the worst gaming analyst there is! (do I need to say his name?)
Bancroller, you strike me as someone who is probably underemployed and should managing a large portfolio, and one day probably will. I'm bearish on MPEL, but your posts almost convince me to change my mind.
As I began typing this, I was going to suggest a truce, as this appears to have gone on too long, I have been in these situations many times, and perhaps it's the several drinks I've had, but that would be bad advice. I look back on my own experiences and these feuds forced me to research a company more then any reasonable person would, and only be the wiser for it - So have at it.
I personally wouldn't accumulate shares till $17.00, I think this is the best Macau play, but I don't think Macau will ever be "Macau" again.
Good luck to you both
that doesn't make sense. Doesn't it still have a trackable NAV?
So unless NAV is not calculated based on it's holdings, it's being eroded by fee's, expenses, and reductions in the value of the holdings.
I'm still trying to wrap my head around how the top holdings in MORL are all outperforming MORL by 20% in the last few months.
again, I agree with your statement as well as many others, but no one wants to address the cash burn scenario with both rigs being idle for some time.
It is not uncommon to wait 5 years to start decom work, once it's been drilled for all it's worth. Management in my opinion is going to be forced into another massive dividend reduction, or suspension. The consensus of the board, is that they won't need to. I just don't see how this is possible, and the posters here are setting themselves up for disappointment.
Since management is also the ownership group, they have the long term viability of the company to consider, not the short term stock price. It's reckless to leave the dividend where it is at, and I just can't see that happening, absent a surprise contract announcement.
How much has oil gone down???? Just since you made this post?
The market needs to cleanse, too much competition and too poor of a world economy. This is the new normal for a year or two.
Some valid points.
How long do you see both rigs idle for?
What are you modeling the daily cash burn for both stack scenarios?
I think the stock is fairly valued at $4.00, which at this rate could be by next week, so I don't advocate selling this here, but with both rigs idle, and a bevy of expenses (stack or repair) I can't see the "astute" management paying much of a dividend. I don't think it is a wise use of capital, and puts them in a bad position if things don't go as planned.
The market treats it like it's going to suspend the dividend, I think it's better to just do it and remove the cloud of uncertainty.
There has been more then just a little bit of trouble in the middle east over the years, can you find a time where oil went up 100%, in a 3 month span?
The message i'm trying to get across is not that oil is going down. My point is, if you do think oil is going to $100 by the end of the year, you have picked the stock in the industry least likely to benefit from that.
We can get into that discussion if need be.
...well, and if you think Oil is going to double in 3 months, that is just silly.
I'll be honest, I agree with much of what you say, and I have no problem with your posts. You are presenting a reasonable argument. My problem is not with you, it is with some of the other posters along the way that have mislead many investors here. This is a thinly traded, and even more thinly covered stock, and people seem to almost use this board as a substitute for legitimate research.
You have a blathering idiot still claiming oil will be back at $100 by the end of the year, and the dividend will not be cut. Most of the super bulls have disappeared, either due to embarrassment or liquidating their positions.
You are one of the few longs presenting a case to buy, based on realistic numbers. I see maximum downside as 25% from here, so if you have held this long, I wouldn't sell, unless the tax loss helps you. Upside, well that's hard to debate. In great times this was $20.00, I don't see the day rates getting back to what they were anytime soon, and there will be down time for what looks to be both rigs. Stocks tend to over-correct up and down, so lets say $9.00 is my best case scenario in the next 18 months.
Taking a stab here isn't a bad odds play, but I worry there is still 1 more shoe to drop, in regards to the dividend. As we have seen, the stock could go down 30% on the day they announce it, or go up just as much.
I encourage you to continue posting your point of view, as it is reasonable and well defended. If nothing else, it allows posters to read different perspectives and form their own conclusions.
I stated a $4.00 price target, so I don't expect anything close to shaving the market cap in half. My point is that a lot of "investors" here, are very confused about the safety of the dividend, and the ability for either of these rigs to find any new work. I anticipate both rigs will be idle for some time, and it would be prudent to suspend the dividend. I don't see how they could consider paying a dividend in Q415 and Q116 when there will be almost no revenue.
"Investors" should start to model how much monthly cash burn is during a both rig warm stack or cold stack scenario.
On the other end, I can't see many companies rushing to begin decom work in this environment, as I stated before. Perhaps the government could play a role by tempting them with financial incentives, which I do think will happen.
The reason this was such a good short to pair with a Rig long play - was even if oil rebounds to $100 tomorrow, it doesn't help AWLCF as much as most of the others, because their rigs are older and less efficient. Transocean is scrapping rigs that are in almost comparable condition to AWLCF's fleet.
This was a dividend dream for a while, nothing more. I have lost a good amount of money on the dividend lure myself, I'm no better then anyone else tempted by great returns in this environment, I'm still holding MORL, and throwing good money at bad averaging on the way down. I just think the principal is safer there then here.
call me what you want, but those who listened to me when this was $17.00 are pretty thankful.
I called the single digits, then revised my forecast to $4.00 per share.
I called the last dividend cut, when everyone was assuring the board it was "safe".
I'm calling for a 75% dividend reduction this year, if not a full blown dividend elimination in the next 12 months.
I think there is a misconception that AWLCF will have no problem getting decom work, that simply isn't the case. Perhaps they will sign a contract tomorrow, but investors should be aware that decom work can be put on hold if the contract isn't already in place, and for many, that is the case.
In the north sea, it's common to wait 5 years to begin decommission work. Why rush in these uncertain times?
Hess is done with AWLCF, didn't you hear? I'm sure the prudent move is to delay anything they can, that doesn't help the bottom line.
The big players will fulfill their obligations, but will be in no hurry to do so.
It's a double whammy! What the ego driven longs (bagholdes) have yet to realize, is NO COMPANY IS GOING TO DO DECOMMSSION WORK - EVEN IF REQUIRED BY LAW! - for some time!
Yes, we know its required, or they pay a fine, but the basic fundamentals of business management tell you, when the ship is sinking, you preserve capital, and eliminate as many expenses as you can.
What if they get fined? Who cares!
If the cost of decomission work puts you out of business anyway, what do you care? you must preserve capital, just to hope you are around to pay those fines.
Throw in the fact that so many other newer updated and more efficient rigs are being marketed at near the same price as what AWLCF can offer.
I simply don't see how this company makes it, unless they totally suspend the dividend.
Why don't they just shut this pos down?
Even the Chinese stock market rejected this garbage, due to horrid financial performance, there is no reason for this company to exist.
how many times do you get called a douchebag on any given day?
If we want to play scoreboard who's winning - and who is losing, I'm crushing you day in day out!
Your the official board moron, claiming Oil will be $100 by the end of the year, claiming AWLCF wasn't going to cut the dividend, and getting caught with your pants down almost daily!
I correctly called the collapse in price, dividend, and am now calling for another massive dividend cut. Scoreboard!
Certainly not an expert, I think only you claim that. I am reading the press release and it could be interpreted a variety of ways:
AWDR - HESS AGREED TO EARLY RELEASE OF WILHUNTER
Awilco Drilling PLC and Hess Limited have mutually agreed to release the WilHunter ahead of the 1st December 2015 contract date as a consequence of the successful early completion of the decommissioning program. There will be no negative financial repercussions to either party as a result of this early release.
WilHunter is now moored at Invergordon and is being actively marketed against future opportunities.
WilHunter is one of Awilco Drilling's two Enhanced Pacesetter semi-submersibles and is equipped for operations in water depths up to 1,500ft.
Aberdeen, 31 July 2015
Perhaps I'm missing something, but how is this a favor for AWILCO? Wasn't the Hess money guaranteed?