Morgan changed their tune. You almost have to feel bad for IKGH management. They really did try to do things the smart way, they are just the most unlucky company I have come across.
5 Straight months of horrendous hold, just as you try to list?
Macau was on fire for years, nothing could slow it down, then they try to list when revenues are falling so fast, analysts can't even keep up.
You can't blame management for the hold, or the current conditions of Macau, they just have some seriously bad luck!
Interesting theory. So we keep speculating it could be about a contract, but this uncertainty could be the motive for sale.
Lets all be real, there had to be a major motive to liquidate at such a low price, it's just a matter of figuring out what that motive was.
I think you are spot on with this assessment. The stock will tank regardless of the 2015 dividend, if everyone knows it's getting slashed soon anyway. Stock market is 6-12 months forward pricing.
Day rates are weak and i'm beginning to wonder if the owner dumped on the suspicion the contract is not getting picked up. Why else would an owner sell at such a massive discount? Owners sell stock all the time, but they don't ever do it at a massive discount.
*Oil Prices falling
*Both Rigs are old and will be IDLE for almost 1 quarter.
*Contract for 1 rig is just an option.
*Owner dumps shares at liquidated price, sandbagging common shareholder.
*SDRL CEO says business is going to be bad for the next year or more.
I almost limped into a position here, glad I didn't. I don't see what catalyst there is to stop the bleeding.
If you removed the dividend, there would be no reason to own this stock, and if the contract is not optioned, that might just be the scenario!
Owner liquidates, volume is heavy and stock tanks daily.
Where there is smoke there is fire.
Risk in regard to being a two rig outfit. If something happens to even one rig, it's lights out. The owner selling is reason for pause. From what I gather he is wealthy beyond just this venture. So he assessed this as his choice to liquidate. That co incides with the SDRL ceo comments about bad business conditions for the next year.
With the time in the yard coming and a year of rough business, I have evaluated that there is no reason to take a position at this time.
I am in your situation. $17.50 is coming, it's not a matter if, but when.
You have to consider SDRL could be the better play here. There is far more risk with AWLCF, and SDRL is now cheaper!
With the commentary from SDRL CEO, saying the biz is going to be bad for the next year or so, I think you need capitulation before you can enter.
Thanks for the insight.
To the points of "there are no comparable rigs out there" - I must be missing something. Wouldn't this keep the rates higher? If there is no competition, why the fall off in day rates?
As for the dividends, I did draw my own conclusion based on what looked like management has indicated for revenues. (contracts on rigs).
I do feel that the pink sheet stigma is mitigated as mentioned by the fact it could become an arbitrage scenario, that is a huge plus.
At the end of the day, this seems to be locked in to the $16.00 analyst target, the test will be if that holds. I appreciate the insight, and will continue to follow this stock and consider a position if it holds $16 and bounces up.
Ah, you seemed to smart to get caught up in this mess. 1000 shares won't hurt you too bad though. I'll even admit the smoke an mirrors of the HK listing may bring a momentary pop to this stock.
Good luck trading .
This board is full of knowledgeable posters, I have enjoyed the read.
So the pro's are obvious.
Large sell off provides great entry point and juicy dividend!
AWILCO paid $300 Mill for both rigs, but they carry a value of $600 Million
As I understand it, AWILCO is the go to for semi submersibles.
Far less leverage then SDRL.
No gap in usage for upcoming contract end from premier to apache.
The Con's - I have to make peace with, but are rewarded with high dividends.
Management implies 5 quarters worth of Divi's @ $1.15 are sustainable, but where to after that?
Availability of other rigs in the region is bad for Awilco, since their rigs are old and they may be forced to negotiate lower day rates.
Rigs may have 15 year useful life. (pro or con?)
High fee's for commissions to trade, plus some brokerages might charge fee on dividends to convert from KRO as well.
2 Month projected time in the yard, but these repairs are at a high risk of taking longer and costing much more.
This will obviously impact dividend, but will everyone sell right before this?
Trades on Pink Sheets (will get slaughtered in correction).
-Anything I have missed? I'm sure there is.
Thanks again. I'm still 50/50 on if this ones worth it.
Hello, I posted a question previously and was impressed with the knowledge and quality of responses I received.
As I consider legging into a position, I'm trying to model out 6 quarters of Div payments, to try to establish max pain for this stock.
Then assuming yield should be remain 20%, a crude, albeit simplistic price target could be established for myself.
With the lack of coverage, I ask anyone willing to share their insight, if they have done any dividend projections, assuming the rig that may not get it's contract renewed does not, and is idle for some time (presumably they would accelerate the scheduled maintenance?)
Believe it or not, many posters here, who once attacked me or accused me of various things, have later personally thanked me for pointing out some of the problems with this company.
Like I said, there are maybe a total of 10 people that will even read this post, and I'm counting you and I.
Due to the lack of analyst coverage on this stock, it's hard to say who's opinion is closest to reality. Whatever neutral might be, you and I are each on the extreme opposite side of that line.
I'm not sure what the "other board" is still speculating, but I have to assume reality is starting to set in.
They will see that I gave them reasonable comps for IKGH already trading in HK, to prove the valuation won't be anything close to what they are expecting. Once this listing takes place with little to no fanfare, I think even you will change your tune.
I don't wish any financial loss to you, or have any personal dislike for you. I think you are a knowledgeable guy who just over committed on this one, and doesn't want to be wrong on it.
There are probably only 10 people that even view this board anymore, so I'm not saying this just to work people up.
Look at what just happened.....
Buyback on hold/cancelled.
Hundreds of millions in $ shares have been authorized.
This companies top priority is to print shares at this point. The div and buyback were only to support the price and boost it, but everyone saw through that. Now they have to list, and hope to get a pop to sell shares there.
So shares were worth buying at $4.00 - but suddenly not at below $3??????
The 1 and only thing keeping them from mass dillution, is the low price per share. If they can ever get the pps up, you will wake up and see the headline - IKGH announces secondary offering @20% discount to prev day close.
They were so overly conservative last year, most speculated this was due to the listing application, and the growing collection times for most junkets.
So, is your optimism based on the 3% growth? Have you ever heard the term, garbage in garbage out?
IKGH YOY comps should be better, because the declined more then the overall markets last year.
"value the company as you would any gaming company"
This tells me you don't get it. Even hyper pumper David Bain and Dr Jack acknowledge this company can't be valued like other gaming companies.
It's always going to trade at a discount due to the business model.
I would have never predicted 5 straight months of horrid hold. Like I said, even I could not have predicted how badly things would go for this company. It's almost comical how virtually everything is working against them, just as they prepare to list!
Here is my prediction, and I think I'm one of the first to figure it out...
Hold was artificially inflated, due to money laundering.
I can extrapolate on that if you need, but I believe that has skewed the numbers by bringing in people with no experience, just "playing Baccarat" to then take extract the money out of chinese accounts.
Man, you are in complete denial!
Even as someone who has the lowest opinion of this company, I could have never even predicted just how bad things would be with IKGH.
They have exceeded even my wildest predictions.
The writing has been on the wall for so long now, that you can't blame management. They are just desperatly trying to keep it together long enough to dump millions of shares on the markets, or face failure.
Thank you everyone for the insight. one follow up, is there an advantageous reason for taking both rigs down at once?
2 months, with room for delay would equal just one quarter with suspended dividend, not terrible in my opinion.
So obviously anyone running a stock screener for yeild will find this. Today's sell off makes me wonder if this is a good entry, or is there more pain ahead?
In the course of my due dilligence, I have found verbiage to suggest one if not both rigs will be taken down for repair soon.
This might be where the two rig scenario comes back to haunt you. I have to assume the dividend will be suspended during this time.
How long will it be down for?
Has this happened previously? How was the dividend impacted?
I'm thinking SDRL might be the way to play this space.
Any comments would be appreciated, I'm a novice at this sector.
Don't repeat anything man, face the facts is what you need to do!
Macau VIP is dying, it was just a big money laundering scheme so the Chinese could get there money out of the country and into US accounts.
So either you are wrong or they just lied again, because roll was only up 3% YOY and that was coming off of very conservative numbers. Where is the proof they are extending more credit?
If they don't think there stock is worth buying back at $3.00, but they had no problem paying $4.00 and even higher before, there is a lot more then the hold that stinks there!