That is what's kept me away from this, but I must admit it's getting tempting down here. I went with MORL for juiced dividends, and I haven't fared much better.
The oil defaults are going to become a reality soon, while they may represent 10% of the portfolios, that can be great enough to force some dividend reductions, that would in turn hurt BDCL.
STD - GIVE IT UP! You sound like an amateur with each post. Your outrageous predictions are comical, now you try to imply you have more cash then myself or others? That tells me you don't, because if you did, you wouldn't brag about it on a message board like a little kid.
And with your total lack of understanding for the stock market and the decision making process that goes into dividend cuts, if you had a lot of money, you would have already lost it.
Want me to pull up the posts where I was among the first here to call for massive dividend cuts, while you said they wouldn't happen last time?
Do I really need to embarrass you further?
He's correct! What a company "can pay" and what they "should pay" are totally different animals.
They will have NO RIGS working for half of Q4 and all of Q1 if not all of 2016!
It's a preservation game! you got caught looking a fool last time, why let it happen again, when it's preventable?
IKGH is being kicked out of a room they paid $80 million to buy, due to horrid performance.
Should read - Market Marker nails it again!
Does he have a crystal ball?
No - This company is just a total POS!
FVP master fund accumulated a 6% holding over a year ago, above $20 I believe. They may be averaging down to window dress their fund.
Man, you are more delusional than I ever imagined. Get your ego in check, your gonna lose it all!
If your outrageous oil to $100 by year end even comes true, AWLCF isn't even in a position to capitalize on that.
There is so much wrong with your logic, it's comical. Let's just say you are right and oil does go to $100 by year end....
Why would you be wasting your time investing in AWLCF and not buying a leverged Oil etf?
You have been wrong so many times now you are confused and don't know up from down. Hit the pause button and restart, I don't wish you financial losses, but your headed down a dangerous path.
STVOOH - LEARN FROM YOUR MISTAKES!!!
" I've pointed out that oil will be at US$100.00 per barrel by the end of this year. I won't be wrong. Less"\
What kind of moron are you? You think a commodity like that will double in less than 5 months?
You have been horribly wrong for some time now! Your ego leaves you looking like a buffoon and yet you keep making outrageous claims that won't even be close ot being accurate.
Who do you think you are fooling?
I'm not going to contest anything you have said here. The problem is, what does all this mean for AWLCF?
They are the small guy that gets wiped out in your scenario. Let's be honest, there has never been anyone as small of them ever! If they had 2 high quality rigs, they might be in demand, but who's going to want rigs that may or may not be up to par in regards to safety and efficiency? Buffet would never even consider investing in AWLCF for a variety of reasons. I do think Oil will one day go back up, but AWLCF isn't in a position to capitalize on the recovery. There is simply no reason to own this stock. I think it's a great hedge to go long RIG or SDRL and short AWLCF as there is almost no possible catalyst here for the foreseeable future. Even if Oil shot up 30% overnight, it doesn't necessarily improve AWLCF's position.
Rob's point about conserving cash is what I believe to be the most critical management decision going forward. I think it's fairly logical to assume half the people holding AWLCF are only around for the dividend, so do you suspend the dividend and cause a massive selloff (sdrl style?) -
Or do you leave a token dividend of say .10 cents per quarter, to minimize the damage to the common shares?
I think it's a lose lose situation for management, and with that in mind they must do whats in the best interest for the viability of this company, and that is a full blown suspension, absent them pulling a rabbit out of their hat with a new contract announcement.
Either way, this stock has 50% downside by year end.
I guess the main point here is, if you use managements guidance, No Rigs in operation after NOV 2014 and at least thru Q1, It's reasonable to assume the Dividend would be reduced if not eliminated during this period.
It would be reckless for management not to do so.
I'm looking for the best risk reward profile to play a potential rebound in this sector, this doesn't seem to be the best bet, in fact it seems like you could could short AWLCF to pair it with a long position in SDRL as a hedge, as there are few upside catalysts here.
I did not short AWILCO - The dividend scared me away, but I did short other names in the industry (got burned on one of them)
I'm at a loss for why you think they would delay the upgrades? How will AWILCO compete with all the other available rigs if they are offering a sub par product? They don't have any scheduled work, so if they do plan to do it, is there a better time? Based on my interpretations of Managements discussions, they were not actively seeking work for this rig before, so wouldn't it be a little bit late in the game to begin that process now?
I have to wonder if the rig shouldn't just be scrapped. I don't claim to be an expert, but I believe warm stack costs to be near $50k per day. Factor in the yard cost with planned upgrades and one could argue that it isn't worth the capital for a rig that may not find work for years.
Awilco's business model (like so many others) made sense during boom times, but during the bust cycle, using rigs that Transocean would have scrapped by now, seems to come with a great deal of financial uncertainty.
Willhunter needs lots of repair work and has no contract anyway. To warm stack at $40k a day, and pay for the necessary repairs, one may ask if this rig should just be scrapped.
Watching this stock has been like watching a slow motion train crash, everyone sees it coming, but a few fools choose to hold on and ride it out. If the company is putting up a meere .50 RCT per month, what do you think that number will look like when the VIP's who did stick around after the crack down are now forced to other countries to smoke?
Game over! shut this company down and distribute the cash before it's too late!
perhaps gloating, but only due to the extreme arrogance of stdvooh and his attacks on me. I learned your ego can be your biggest detriment in this game, don't fall in love with a stock. Good luck to you.
I called the dividend cut, and he said it wouldn't happen, I called $5.00 and he said it wouldn't happen, he was such a know it all, buying all the way down. Perpetrating himself as a knowledgeable poster, and attacking all those who actually did know what they were talking about. Too bad.
Just wait till the smoking ban in VIP rooms goes into effect..... Game over!
If you believe that, you are crazy! No one is buying junkets in Macau ======EXCEPT FOR IKGH!
They simply close up shop, they have no value, and the last 2 acquisitions almost destroyed the company! The only saving grace is that the acquisitions have performed so horrendously that it reduces or eliminates bonus payments. Do your research, and you will be in utter shock at how bad those deals were!
Analysts are expecting the new smoking ban proposal to have a substantial impact on revenues. This company has been on borrowed time for a while, I suspect if the ban is implemented, it will be the beginning of the end for IKGH.
The chinese stock market is know for letting all sorts of questionable companies list on their exchange, yet they rejected IKGH because if it's horrible financial picture, what will it look like after another 20% is chopped off the top?