Citron, SA, NY Times, Schkreli, AF, Tilton. All incestuously working in tandem, citing each other's statements, and using empty circular logic with nothing of substance and nothing we didn't already know.
I believe we are coming to the end of the line for them, as the marginal costs of dog piling onto this stock are exceeding the downward prices they have achieved.
They are about to lose control of the beach ball, which will soon violently pop to the surface, while they sink to the bottom (all holding hands of course)
This company will not go bankrupt until it no longer serves the needs of the bio/pharmaceutical short community. As long as manipulation is needed to help out the shorts, money will flow into RTRX in the form of stock AND debt. Who do you suppose the short term debt on their balance sheet belongs to? A typical bank or lending institution? Not likely.
You would be better off running an obstacle course than giving stock out stock predictions.
KERXs drug demonstrates efficacy while RMTIs drug does not.
"...the company meeting with the FDA to determine if a P3 trial will be necessary to amend the labeling of Zerenex for CKD as well as ESRD"
The current staff composition of the FDA makes very conservative decisions, so I find this scenario to be very remote, and I exclude it entirely from my investment thesis on this stock. Your price targets and timing aren't unreasonable, but once achieved will likely drop back into a lower trading range until the next catalyst.
Respectfully, I disagree.
I believe that numbers are the ONLY thing that matters to the value of this stock right now. The shipment of some product in Q4 will only confirm what the market already knows, which is that UNXL is production capable, and will only move the stock price up for a short while.
It will take earnings to move this stock price forward, and you won't see enough earnings to sustain a stock price above $20 until Q1 2014 at the earliest.
Are you still calling for Q4 EPS of 1.95, or did Bentsur's comments tamp down your predictions somewhat?
Keep swinging. Appreciate all of your comments.
You have quite an imagination.
How about this fact:
Even a flat quarter for earnings would be $1.65 per share. So, 1.65 EPS x 4 forward quarters x 10.2 current price to earnings ratio = 67.32 per share
I think that a flat Q4 earnings is the headline event today, is a disappointment, and is counterbalancing all the other positives that have come out. Traders seem to be able to only focus on a single major news event at a time in a given stock. The positives will come later, but probably not today.
You can be certain that the first major recommendation that came out of this committee that was adopted by QCOR was to fund future projects and/or acquisitions through debt, and not through free cash flow or dilution Corporations are locking in long term debt right now before interest rates start going back up.
Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see the corporate nexus move to Ireland, in order to legally avoid the high rate of U.S. income taxes.
Why should the stock be up today when Q4 earnings are expected to be flat?
The term "changing the capital structure" in the context of a publicly traded company usually means either 1) issuance of a different tier of preferred stock 2) issuance of corporate bonds, or 3) borrowing money.
A change in the capital structure for a company usually presages a change in strategic direction, so things may get interesting in the next quarter or two.
I am guessing that the company is wanting to fund some future projects or acquisitions without damaging its committments to returning money to the common shareholders.
Bentsur did say in the last CC that he was expecting a regulatory decision for Torii to be in early Q1 2014. It could happen earlier of course, but I am inclined to go with what the CEO says about the timing of this.
Velphoro received FDA approval Nov 28. Not surprisingly, the stock price for KERX went up, as FDA approval of a phosphate binder in CKD that demonstrated less efficacy than Zerenex even further de-risked Keryx's own pending FDA approval in mid 2014. I believe that the status of NCE was also publicly known as of that date, but did not hurt the stock price.
It was only when Feuerstein tweeted his opinion Dec 5 that NCE would not be granted to Zerenex did the stock price plunge.
There has been some debate on this board as to whether NCE will or will not be granted for Zerenex, but it appears to me the big money voted their opinion Nov 28 as 1) NCE will be granted, or 2) NCE isn't all that important.
In a Dec 3, 2012 ruling by the US Court of Appeals for the 2nd circuit, see United States v. Caronia, Mr. Caronia was a sales rep working for Orphan Pharmaceuticals and selling a drug approved to treat narcolepsy. While selling, Caronia verbally discussed using the drug for other non-approved indications. The court presiding over the case was the federal Second Circuit. The Second Circuit court concluded that the FDA violated Caronia's first amendment rights protecting the freedom of speech. The FDA decided not to appeal the Second Circuit's ruling to the Supreme Court. Some believe that the FDA did not appeal in order to avoid losing in the nation's highest court, which would have had broad implications for the interpretation of off-label marketing. In other words, a Supreme Court loss would have weakened the FDA's control over off-label marketing. Therefore, the Second Circuit's ruling stands. It has become a central case debated in the legal field, and it has set new legal precedent.
Importantly, the new legal precedent established by U.S. v. Caronia actually helps clarify the laws that give regulatory authority to the FDA. Primarily, one can now consider it unlikely that the FDA will prosecute off-label marketing when strong scientific evidence exists supporting the potential off-label use of a drug.
Leaked US memos that pertain to the upcoming 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade negotiations:
The Obama administration is insisting on mandating new intellectual property rules in the treaty that would grant pharmaceutical companies long-term monopolies on new medications. As a result, companies can charge high prices without regard to competition from generic providers. The result, public health experts have warned, would be higher prices around the world, and lack of access to life-saving drugs in poor countries. Nearly every intellectual property issue in the November chart is opposed by a broad majority of the 12 nations. The December memo describes 119 "outstanding issues" that remain unresolved between the nations on intellectual property matters. The deal would obligate nations to develop many standards similar to those in the United States, where domestic prescription drug prices are much higher than costs in other nations.
Also according to the December memo, the U.S. has reintroduced a proposal that would hamper government health services from negotiating lower drug prices with pharmaceutical companies. The proposal appears to have been universally rejected earlier in the talks, according to the memo.
Australia and New Zealand have medical boards that allow the government to reject expensive new drugs for the public health system, or negotiate lower prices with drug companies that own patents on them. If a new drug does not offer sufficient benefits over existing generic drugs, the boards can reject spending taxpayer money on the new medicines. They can also refuse to pay high prices for new drugs. The Obama administration has been pushing to ban these activities by national boards, which would lock in big profits for U.S. drug companies. Obamacare sought to mimic the behavior of these boards to lower domestic health care cost by granting new flexibilities to U.S. state agencies for determining drug prices.
QCOR clearly understands the nexus, or at least the appearance of nexus, that Banigan and the CDF has with announced investigations of this company, and as such should speak out if they can to explain that his departure has nothing to do with QCOR or any ongoing legal issues.
If QCOR does not speak out in the coming days, it will be assumed they cannot do so for legal reasons related to the ongoing investigations, which of course will not be good for the stock price.
While NCE is a more valuable designation in EU, the market there is not all that valuable to any pharma company, even if is a larger market. Among the reasons why this is so is because of the significant infrastructure build out costs and the fact that on average a drug can only fetch about 60% of the price in the EU compared to what it can in the U.S.