Saw this one on the CNBC ticker this morning with a 4% drop. They issued an spo which explains the drop. The chart looks beautiful, but observe how the stock spiked after they announced earnings and raised their divy 10%, only to have the spo bring it right back to the trend line dovetailing with the 50 dma.
I owned ARI for a short spell a couple of years ago -- maybe Bob had mentioned it.
Now time to looks at their earnings report.
David, ATLS should yield more than the underlying ARP. If they pay 70 cents, it should yield at least 15%, which should bring the price to $4.66. When the 1Q distribution is announced and is pro rata, that should push a few more people to sell.
While the worst run companies in any sector can bounce the highest in a recovery, I am not going to play that game with these jokers. I chose not to play the TRGP/spinco merger arp, and am now thinking of switching out of ARP.. These guys are jokers.
Thanks Ed. I appreciate the support. Also, thanks for the push on O, out at $55, now $50. I'll revisit that name later if it dips back into the $40s.
Ed, Griffen gives a link to his spreadsheets in some of his posts. I have not tried to open them. I saw him on the ARP board, and he's talked about EVEP BBEP, LINE VNR and a few others (maybe LRE).
Well that would be a home run. They are carrying UEO on the balance sheet at $350, so that would be a pickup in value of $350 or $7 more per share.
After the failed Utica sale fiasco from a few years back, I hate to start speculating on their m&a abilities, but if that value for UEO comes out, then the market is missing something. The stock is selling at $15 and there's $7 of value that is not being recognized? Is my math wrong?
Rates have backed up, as measured by the 10 yr Treasury. The 10yr had gotten as low as 1.6% as I recall and now its 2.12.
I wasn't that impressed with the s.a article that was mentioned above. I would defer to an expert on hedging, but could this theory that WMC is overhedged be wrong despite the loss in book value during last quarter? It seems that they own both fixed rate hedges and floating rate hedges, but don't these have the effect of cancelling each other out, at least partly?
WMB just issued $3 billion of notes. They are the 49% owner of UEO through their recent acquisition of Access. Can't find the DCF for 2014 anywhere to be able to estimate a value.
Was this the quid pro quo for Cooperman getting on CNBC and mentioning ATLS every chance he got? He's been in ATLS and ARP for a long time and I wonder whether he is positive. You would think that he would be a tad upset at management for cutting the projected distribution by more than half, TWO WEEKS after filing an SEC report saying it was going to be twice as large.
At the end of the day, ARP and ATLS are put options on mismanagement.
Payback, the whole LINE experience was a disaster. I was a late comer to LINE, having read several posts on these boards about how great they were (lesson learned about confirmation bias), before I took the plunge. LINE did have a great track record and stock performance up to one point. The funny thing is that many of their issues were resolved favorably, but they still took their toll on the stock price. Some did manage to trade the stock profitably by buying when the bad news was in the stock and then selling when their issues were resolved favorably.
It's always good to hear the other side of a position (especially if you own a stock and could be missing a risk) if it is well-thought out. I learned about the dangers of excessive debt-levels from prior bear markets, but some on this board pushed the view that debt does not matter.
There will always be people who prefer to keep their rose-colored glasses on because they think the purpose of these boards is to pat each other on the back.
Good luck to you, and judging from your post, you may have a lot to contribute to the discussions here.
On WGP, Wells does not have a report but CS does. They raised their target price to $73 but maintain a neutral rating, but that was issued before this last acquisition announcement. I'm going to watch.
DH's post brings up a good discussion point about which is closer to a bubble -- stocks or bonds. DH seems to imply that bonds are closer to a bubble (but one could ask him the same question that he posed to Payback -- based on what?) DH has argued previously that there is no inflation to speak of, and the rest of the world is in deflation, so why would bonds then be in a bubble? As to a potential bubble level for stocks, there is no one magic level that determines whether it is a bubble or not. Past bear markets have started at different p/e levels. And is it the forward p/e level, which is just based on estimated earnings which can change, or is it the rolling 10 yr p/e made famous by the Yale professor (drawing a blank on his name now). If money is going to flow to the best risk/return, then why would it flow to US stocks that have risen in value and multiples and not to more undervalued areas like Japan and Europe. The Japanese market has started to put in new highs. Big investors don't ring a bell when they start to exit their allocations.
kee, some people on this board are not interested in learning the nuances in trying to understand how some of these sectors and companies work and what matters to evaluating their performance.
stagg, most of us on this board have discussed the problems relying on the opinions of these so-called stock programs, so-called analysts and TV personalities. Since you are parroting the views of a stock program, perhaps you could discuss the reasons for their views in more detail so that they can be debated. Once a well-respected firm like Wells has a chance to publish their view on WGP, I will be happy to paste so that you can learn from how they analyze companies in this sector, assuming you are even interested in learning. That doesn't mean that Wells is infallible, as they can make wrong calls too, but at least their analysts know what's important to look at .
In a bear market, most stocks go down, whether they are high p/e or low p/e, but some industries are more negatively correlated. I think your statement applies more to the high-flying momentum stocks that every hedge fund owns, like Netflix, even Apple and whatever the new most loved ones are.
Some say that it's pointless trying to call a correction or the next bear market, but we have had a few nice corrections to take advantage of. The market is not as cheap as it once was, but that doesn't mean the turn comes now. As for the geopolitical, you could always own US Treasuries to hedge for that.
Kee, one could have the underlying premise correct and have awful timing. I agree with you that the long term growth prospects of midstream are good, and I still own a few. My theory was that there would be an overreaction down to midstream (and there was, but I thought it would go even further). The ones I sold were either because they had specific company events (APL being acdquired by NGLS, AM being new) or because I thought there would be disappointment when they got around to adjusting their 2015 guidance downward. some have since reduced their distribution growth projections. As Ed has pointed out, we often get a better opportunity to add to MLPs after the March distributions when they tend to selloff.
BTW, others have a more simplified view of the sector and just make sweeping generalizations without trying to understand the nuances or differences in the subsectors or different companies. Sometimes the market is also guilty of that view.
Payback, it sounds like you are no rookie when it comes to investing. One point that many of us learned with the decline in oil was that hedging did not protect many of the MLPs like LINE as many of us thought it would. First, the hedging that LINE and others entered into also involved selling out of the money puts at much lower strike prices (thinking that those would never go negative), so when oil declined, those positions turned negative on them and reduced the effect of their other hedges. Second, Barron's had a piece yesterday about contracts in the drilling industry and how those are re-negotiated when things change in the industry. Turns out that there's no such thing as a bullet-proof contract in this industry and that everything can be re-negotiated.