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Inergy Midstream LLC Message Board

marklibera 301 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Aug 14, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Just a Note

    by titusbythesea Aug 30, 2014 9:27 AM
    marklibera marklibera 5 hours ago Flag

    The hope of rising nat gas prices is usually offered as a reason to invest in these trusts, but rarely is it supported with any metrics to show how rising demand will overcome the supply and lead to permanent rising prices. Even if nat gas prices rise, it's not clear what the timeframe will be and if CHKR will benefit from the decreasing production from its wells.
    As to CHKR selling at $10, the market can often missprice stocks (in both directions) in the short term. CHK values its own units at $7. In the end, CHKR is not an operating company like one of the many drillers. It's a terminating trust that will pay out what it can get out of the ground in the time that it has left.

  • Reply to

    Just a Note

    by titusbythesea Aug 30, 2014 9:27 AM
    marklibera marklibera 10 hours ago Flag

    Why do you think it is nuts? Perhaps offer reasons why you disagree with their analysis if you have done any yourself.

  • Reply to

    OT: FIG

    by marklibera Aug 28, 2014 5:24 PM
    marklibera marklibera 11 hours ago Flag

    SC4, most companies that use financing to run their businesses like to lock in their financing by using interest rate swaps to convert floating rate financing to fixed rate. So I'm sure to the extent that NRZ uses floating rate funding that it is similarly converted to fixed rates.
    Mortgage servicing is a volume business and for a few years now, banks have been getting out of it because of the higher capital required by regulators to be in that business. That was the play for those in the business like Nationstar, Ocwen and Walters.

  • Reply to

    OT: FIG

    by marklibera Aug 28, 2014 5:24 PM
    marklibera marklibera Aug 30, 2014 11:25 AM Flag

    SC4, I haven't gone back to study the history of FIG. I can surmise that the crash in 2008 could have effected the values of their different funds (assets under management) which is the denominator of the payout ratio. The fund values have since rebounded, perhaps substantially during this bull market, as well as an increase in additional funds under management.
    Your comment does make me think about the timing of investing in private equity managers when the bull market is 5 years old. As I remember, Fortress made a splash when it sold an interest to Nomura at the height of the last bull market, and fellow pe firm Blackstone top-ticked the last bull market when it went public.
    As long as the bull is still alive, I think the case can be made that they are selling below the value of their competitors and that they have substantial distributions to make.

  • Reply to

    SC4: Here's the FIG post from IV.

    by bobdbeck Aug 29, 2014 12:44 PM
    marklibera marklibera Aug 29, 2014 12:59 PM Flag

    To clarify, that was from the i.v. MLP board. There is also a similar recap on the yahoo message board for FIG where someone spells out the different components of the dividend. The play is if the market starts pricing this at a 6% yield like they do for some of the competitors like Carlyle and Blackstone on the regular and special divy combination of 26 cents per q/ 1.04 per yr. That should get it into the low teens at least.
    One bad point, they issue a K-1. Will have to do more due diligence to see if there's UBTI before thinking about putting it into a retirement fund.
    I'm not chasing it yet as the next distribution announcement is probably not until end of Oct.

  • Reply to

    OT: Frack sand

    by marklibera Aug 29, 2014 10:27 AM
    marklibera marklibera Aug 29, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    jk, I agree with the gold rush analogy. Frac sand and water. The Antero Midstream has a big water component. The S-1 discloses that they get revenues of $650-700k per well from Antero. Antero will be adding hundreds of wells each year for several more years. Now if the IRS will only get them their private letter ruling so that they can do the IPO.

  • marklibera marklibera Aug 29, 2014 11:05 AM Flag

    But it wasn't just lending to subprime borrowers but the toxic mortgage products like pay Option ARMS that were developed by the lenders, over which the regulators, including the Fed, had jurisdiction and refused to constrain. If there were no pay option ARMS, there would have been far fewer subprime borrowers.

  • marklibera by marklibera Aug 29, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    HCLP appears to have digested the recent offering by its sponsor and has posted a new presentation. The amount of sand to be delivered next year is going from 3.7 mm tons to 5.6mm tons. I believe there are some price increases to go along with the increased volume. The stock of its competitor, EMES, has started to explode again and I think HCLP will follow.
    One post on the i.v. board mentions that some of the e&p firms are having success re-fracking wells. I have spent some time looking at various presentations from Antero and CNX about their drilling plans in the Marcellus and Utica. It's really just getting started.

  • Reply to

    HTGC, PSEC

    by keebon Aug 29, 2014 9:06 AM
    marklibera marklibera Aug 29, 2014 9:36 AM Flag

    I pulled a "Jersey Vin" and sold some of my higher cost basis PSEC in order to harvest a much-needed tax loss to offset a large and unexpected ordinary gain-to-be on EPB. I'll sit out one dividend and reasses in 31 days. By that time, it will be near October and may be a time to be raising cash anyway.

  • Reply to

    OT: FIG

    by marklibera Aug 28, 2014 5:24 PM
    marklibera marklibera Aug 29, 2014 9:33 AM Flag

    William, another way to look at it is that FIG is like the general partner to all of its portfolio companies (NCT, NRZ, NewMedia and the senior housing spin-off to come) not to mention all of the fund vehicles. If you like any of their portfolio companies, you have to like the general partner.

  • marklibera by marklibera Aug 28, 2014 5:24 PM Flag

    Saw a posting on Fortress on the i.v. board. They are the same group that brought you NCT, NRZ etc. FIG runs hedge and alternative asset funds. The stock is in the $7's and they paid a divy of 26 cents made up of a regular 8 cent divy and a special (kind of like how NRZ paid a regular and special). They said they will pay out most of what they call "distributable income" and they said they have $1 billion in undistributed DE. Basic shares are 200mm. My math may be off or I may be misreading as I quickly try to read through their press release and filings, but it looks like they have close to $5 to distribute over the next 2 quarters. This may be another case of the market not understanding how this company generates its funds and not applying the correct yield to it. Even if they pay 26 cents quarterly, the yield is near 14%. I don't know the tax treatment of the distributions. There might be someone in our group who owns this and can speak more intelligently about it.

  • Reply to

    SFL Earnings

    by budfoxtrading Aug 28, 2014 8:30 AM
    marklibera marklibera Aug 28, 2014 2:41 PM Flag

    Stagg, correct me if I am wrong, but I think you got that backwards. it was 44 cents for March and 24 for June. It does not seem to matter to the market. But the stock is overbought on an RSI level. I see a nice upward sloping channel that has developed, bounded below by the 50 dma at $18.55.

  • Reply to

    MWE hits a new

    by bobdbeck Aug 28, 2014 12:41 PM
    marklibera marklibera Aug 28, 2014 2:25 PM Flag

    bob, Wunderlich put a $88 trading price target on it. It was also mentioned in a NYT article on acquisition candidates for KMI.

    The MLP sector is rebounding nicely. APL got a new $40 target price. HCLP got an $80 target. Even EVEP is starting to move. The Marcellus/Utica continues to lead.

  • Reply to

    Frac sand investors....

    by centerdir Aug 22, 2014 6:57 PM
    marklibera marklibera Aug 28, 2014 9:38 AM Flag

    Over bought with an RSI over 75. Each time that has happened, the stock pulls back for about 2 weeks and $2-5.

  • Should be interesting. The first estimate was for 4%.

  • Reply to

    Where are the bears?

    by clevelandjohn41 Aug 26, 2014 10:19 AM
    marklibera marklibera Aug 27, 2014 9:34 AM Flag

    I guess I could be called a bear on these trusts. I think they are value traps as the supposed high "yield" which is part return of capital, appeals to yield chasers and keeps the stock price elevated despite continued poor production below original estimates. The charts speak for themselves in whether they represent good long-term investments. Notwithstanding the short-term movements, the fundamentals are clear and the best support for the bearish argument is that CHK values their investment in this at $7.
    No one has argued that the stock does not bounce after it undergoes one of these post ex-date declines. So by all means feel free to play the upswing into the next distribution announcement, but don't confuse a bounce with a change in the longer term fundamental outlook.

  • Reply to

    hey marklibera....what do you think of this chkr?

    by grgsvll Aug 26, 2014 12:26 PM
    marklibera marklibera Aug 27, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    grgsvll, I am also perplexed by the recent action in CHKR and also the snapback rallies in SDT, SDR and PER (I doubled my money on a SDR option play but glad I pulled the trigger when I did to close out the position). All of these trusts reached oversold levels in their latest drops. I don't think the rebounds have anything to do with commodity prices as nat gas has been drifting down and oil sold off. There's been stories about the oversupply of oil out of the Permian basin and stories about the predictions for this winter being as cold as last year. On CHKR specifically, it appears to have held the $10 support so maybe that embolden traders to get a jump on the run-up into the next distribution announcement. Maybe because the drilling schedule has been drawn out causing the subordination period to last longer, traders are focusing on the current yield and discounting the possibility of lower cashflows or CHK dumping units any time soon.
    As I said last year, there was no telling when the pattern of large post ex-date declines would change. I don't think it has changed because of an improvement in the fundamentals. Even stocks with broken fundamentals can still see short-term bounces as traders play oversold levels (as an example look at that iron ore trust, GNI).
    So one can make a case that the stock can move up, maybe even taking out past resistance. But the stock still declines after the distribution and the process in November can also be exacerbated by tax-loss selling.
    I'm going to sit out the put play in CHKR this time unless the stock runs up too much into the next distribution. A runup over $12 might make it a good put candidate, depending on how the puts spreads are. I still would rather risk 40 or 50 cents in puts to double or triple my money on a almost certain post ex-date decline, rather than risking $11 to pick up a $1 in potential capital gain.

  • Reply to

    O/T - PSEC

    by rogers2308 Aug 26, 2014 10:12 AM
    marklibera marklibera Aug 26, 2014 3:02 PM Flag

    Vin, I don't think much of the dividend increase -- was it 1/1000th of a penny? Someone once said that if the CFO can't find 1 penny per share, then they should be fired. On the positive, their report has some of the best disclosure of what they are doing in all of the different investments and financing strategies. As for adding shares if one already owns some, while these occasional panics can be a good buying opportunity to amass a large position, you have to ask yourself whether it is prudent to have that much exposure to any one stock, especially if the stock price is not growing. PSEC has bounced back from at least 2 prior selloffs, but it has not cracked the $11 range from earlier in the year. I know you are more disciplined in this regard than others.

  • Reply to

    Fed speak to scare off the carry trade

    by jackhilr Aug 22, 2014 11:43 AM
    marklibera marklibera Aug 25, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    The Fed saved the banks and their banker friends. It certainly wasn't any of the political parties.
    Fixed it for you.

  • Reply to

    NRZ reverse split 2 for l

    by shuching4 Aug 24, 2014 6:51 PM
    marklibera marklibera Aug 25, 2014 11:23 AM Flag

    SC4, NRZ is an mREIT, but the price over book doesn't seem to matter as much because they have to wait for MSRs to be offered for sale before they can buy, and they don't use as much leverage.

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