Nat gas prices were also much higher back then. Nat gas was once over $10 and was in the $7 range for a while. EVEP had much more nat gas than oil back then.
Keebon, a few brokerage firms were very positive on ETE as a result of the deal. CS said that they could increase distributions 3 cents each quarter. With the GP's, it's all about the distribution growth. Time to add more ETE on a pullback. The 3% difference in yield between ETP and ETE is not going to matter -- that's just $1.80 in share growth that ETE will have. The only problem is the with ETE you get a K-1 with 4 or 5 different entities.
I'm not feeling too confident. I thought terms of a deal would have leaked out by now and driven the stock price up to the mid $50's. I think you are correct that she doesn't want to give up the big bank balance so that she can keep spending on acquisitions. However, if they don't announce a strategy after promising that they would be this time, I think the raiders will come after her and launch a proxy contest. If the shares dropped because of disappointment, that could make for a buying opportunity for longer dated options. There's no way the hedgies and raiders are going to leave this money on the table. They'd shoot their mothers for $10 on a $50 stock. They kick Marissa out, spin out the regular business in a reverse morris trust and sell it to Microsoft for $15, then sell the Asian assets to BABA and Softbank.
This is representative of any m&a to come. The Gp of ETP is ETE and they are the GP of Regency. They bought that a few years ago and are now combining two of the siblings.
Sarge, you've mentioned MHR a few times. I own one of the preferreds. I owned the common once on a recommendation from someone (maybe SC4), but they are having some trouble with the recent decline in oil. They did have a feisty call last week pledging that they are going to survive. It will be interesting to see how they work themselves out of this.
One of the Saudi spokesmen said that oil could see $200 again unless investments continue to be made.
Many of the upstreams have caught a bid and bounced a little, but we still need to get through the spring borrowing base re-determinations and possible further distribution cuts.
You are forgetting that most MLPs are much more leveraged than the big oil companies and they pay out much larger chunks of their cash in distributions. The problem is that the debt keeps growing as they add properties, but they only hedge out a couple of years and not 100%. When you are highly leveraged and paying out most of your cash and not 100% hedged, all it takes is a little decline to have a big negative effect.
GPs are folded into their LPs when they reach overvaluation, not when they are going the other way. If ARP has to cut their distribution that means the IDRs become less of a drag, not more. Cohen would only sell the GP if it was at a premium valuation (i.e. Paying a growing distribution of $1.25 like they originally projected and valued at 4% or $30. Now the distribution is shrinking and the market values it at $2.). Maybe he tries to take the whole thing private at some lowball offer with a partner so that he can IPO it again when prices turn up. But the partner is going to want a big part of the profit.
Unlike many MLPs, I don't think their problem is their debt, so buying back debt may not be necessary. I haven't checked the prices. The MLP model has always been to buy assets using equity and debt but now they can't issue equity. Most MLPs won't be able to buy properties and may have to sell some. If they add cash flowing assets, then they can get more EBITDA which helps the debt ratio. The issue has always been that they aren't getting any EBITDA or borrowing base credit for the UTica assets.
Maybe not at distressed prices but at more normal prices. They do have an advantage that they have Enervest to drop down assets. One negative note for unit holders is that we are going to pay taxes on the midstream gains since they could not do a like kind exchange. The Cardinal sale is going to show up on this year's k-1 and UEO on next year if they sell it. Many might not care but after you've seen the price drop 75% then maybe have your distribution cut, it stings to report a taxable gain even if it is at long term cap gain rates.
Bob is right about the distributions representing last quarter. The real test will be come May. Most of the e&p firms have borrowing base re determinations and may start to bump up against their debt covenant limits. I've read that BBEP, VNR and LINE are in tough shape re their debt. VNR kept their distribution but basically warned that they will cut. The other factor is the price of Nat gas which has bounced but could fall below $2 in the spring unless we get some cold for the rest of winter. Many of the mid streams have bounced nicely. With my recent sales, I would like to add some of the stronger names like SXL, PHillips 66 and maybe EQM but I am not going to chase. I still have EPD and MMP and a few others.
Atlas Energy Group filed an amendment to their Form 10 registration stmt for the spinco. They kept their distribution projection the same at $1.10. They list the assumptions for ARP and comparisons to last year's performance. No mention of what happens if they can't meet the NYSE listing standards.
They list the EBITDA for ARP for 2014 at $385.5mm. They also list the debt but there are two different sums of debt and no clarification of which is considered "Total Funded Debt" for purposes of ARP's debt covenants.
Too early in my opinion. There won't be desperate sellers until they hit their borrowing base redeterminations or breach their debt covenants. We still don't know if oil has seen its lows and is stabilizing here or going lower. Nat gas bounced recently, but unless we start to get some really cold weather, the spring could see a selloff under $2. I would think the buyers are interested in properties, not whole companies yet.
Barclays and Wells both said that the run in property REITS is over. I've been playing O and IRM and am thinking of taking a profit. We might start to get some rotation back into the riskier names and away from the safety plays, at least until the economy starts to slow.
mizzou, to get back on track for $160, they are going to have to show some dividend growth. Will be interesting to see if they can with oil and nat gas at present levels. I think their guidance was based on $3.75 gas and $65 oil. I don't think this the recently declared 4th Q dividend matters as much as the next couple of Q's.
Do they know if oil is going to $30 or going to stay at $50? Do they know how long it is going to stay where it is at? No.