Not delisted, but removed from a couple of the indices that they were a part of. There was also talk that a new index would be formed and possibly an ETF that mirrored that index. The point is that they could see new buying if these indices/ETFs are formed. Since BDCs have gotten quite popular, you can expect Wall Street to roll out several new products to play this popularity. At which point, that will be the sign to exit.
jk, there have been many articles about how the biotechs are in bubble territory. Can be dangerous trying to short a parabolic move as you never know when it is going to end, just that it will end at some point. Puts on the index are probably a safer bet.
I don't know what happened recently, but it seems that all of a sudden, tempers are flaring and people are talking about abandoning the board for a "better" board somewhere else. I have mentioned frequently that I am a reader of the minyanville website in which the founder, Todd harrison, writes frequently about social acrimony and the effect of psychology on investing. Is it ironic that on the anniversary of a 5 year bull market in which the gains have followed the Fed's QE in lockstep fashion, that all of a sudden it is becoming a little less easy to ride and pick winners? Could this be the start of the social acrimony that signals an incoming correction, or worse, a bear market that just hapens to coincide with the Fed's tapering?
I know people will say that the bears have been warning about a bear market for the last 5 years, but the historical fact is that bear markets have not been outlawed and they do come, most of the time, when people are not expecting them. The fact that I am mentioning this probably means that the bear is still off in the future.
I believe one of the purposes of these boards is to discuss different points of view and to help everyone achieve better investment results, by seeing both sides. You have to sell to actually pocket an investment gain. If investing is just about buy buy buy and never selling, what would be the point in discussing? We can disagree without becoming disagreeable. But we also don't have to become a rah-rah "Chip and Dale" message board either where no dissenting or opposing views are ever allowed. There's a lot to be learned from other investors experience and research, so let's keep the discussion flowing.
Keebon, I'm not an expert on these patterns, but it looks like SSW is forming a wedge or pennant, which I understand is when a downward line intersects with an upward line. As I remember from minyanville, the stock can go either way. So if it breaks to the upside and pierces the upward line, it will continue upward, and vice versa. I know to most this sounds like voodoo and doesn't provide much guidance on how to play the stock.. But the other view is that this is the point of technical analysis, i.e. the emerging stock pattern is like a map with a direction that leads to a destination. Fundamental analysis provides the same criticism: you don't know if improving fundamentals will continue or whether they have peaked and are already discounted in the stock price. Instead of getting stuck in a certain opinion or view of a stock, let the chart give you a hint as to what direction it is going.
I hope this helps.
Sorry for the long-winded response. At one point, I owned each of PER SDT and CHKR, which were all issued within a short time of each other so I had to deal with that same question. Still have a portion of PER in a different account. The run-ups into the distributions and plunges after the ex-dates are more pronounced on SDT, SDR and CHKR. There are several ways to try to grind out a profit or at least come out even. One can try to add some and then sell into the runup into the distribution. Those runups typically start about 4-6 weeks before the distribution announcement. The next announcement should be the end of April so we are in the period to put that play on. The other way to play is to buy puts, especially if the distribution announcement has some negative news, but as I said, PER is holding up better. I have played puts successfully on CHKR SDRand SDT which have more disappointments tied to production issues.
I think the Dan Moore article mentioned that the distribution on PER will likely decline into the 40 cent range in late 2015, so the market will begin to anticipate that; meaning that if the share price should pop up for any reason before that, you should probably pull the trigger and sell. The other thing is to think of any loss that you may have as a deferred tax asset that can be used to offset other gains.
Theses types of trusts are depleting trusts and are not permitted to add any new properties. They basically pay out their production over time. Even though there is new drilling, the sponsor is only required to drill a set number of wells.
Most of these trusts, PER, SDT, SDR and others, have had problems in that the production originally projected has fallen short - this is mostly for those that have big Nat gas %, not so much with PER which is mostly oil. Their decline rates have been higher and many have missed their target distributions and are not earning enough to pay the sub units. Also many produce Nat gas liquids and the price of NGLS has declined because of so much supply and other factors.
Your observation about the post ex-distribution date action is correct. Because the reported yields are very high, investors push up the price before the distribution, with many retail investors not realizing that the market maker adjusts the price downward on the ex date. That adjustment is around 4% because of the large distribution! which can cause technical selling. Each quarter there is usually a negative article which adds to the selling pressure. The recent analysis by Dan Moore reviewed the year-end PV 10 report which is a year end estimate of the present value of the remaining reserves. That PV 10 value was around $11+. But that can change year to year based on production and future prices.
PER is holding up better than the Nat gas trusts both on the production side and price of oil. Nat gas prices had dropped a lot before the recent rise this winter..
One can certainly try to trade the price increases up to the distribution and play puts for the inevitable decline, but there' seems to be more volatility with the gas trusts. I still own some PER but would consider selling if it ran up into May's distribution. Despite the apparent 20% yield! total return is probably negative. You are eating your principal and getting taxed on a good percentage of it.
Liza, at first I thought that since the legacy CMLP partnership ended that the suspended losses should be used in conjunction with the reporting that termination, which is why I was curious why there was no sales schedule (even though it was a merger) but upon a closer reading of the proxy they said the suspended losses can be carried on to the new entity.
This statement is not correct. ATLS does not buy shares of APL or ARP when they do offerings to maintain their ownership percentage. Sometimes they do, but looking at the 10k's over time you see their percentage interest in the lp units declining. This is the advantage inherent in owning the general partner percentage of 2% plus the IDRs. When cash grows at either APL or ARP, ATLS gets the first 2% because of its GP interest and then an increasing percentage of the marginal dollar because of the IDRs. Meanwhile, while its % of the total lp units may decline it still gets the distribution on those units which usually increases on a per unit basis when these entities acquire more properties and issue equity. It is incorrect to say APL will not be distributing to ATLS. They modified the IDR agreement for a period but ATLS will still collect on its GP share, it's LP units and a probably a portion of the IDR arrangement (I think they give back about 3.5 mm that they would have received on the IDRs).
The 10 yr poked its head over 2.8% and over the 200 dma on the strong jobs number. We will see if it stays above that level or comes back a little. If it stays over 2.75% on the pullback, it probably goes higher.
Many stocks were over the RSI 70 level recently and are getting hit today. Gambler, sell ARR.
HTGC, what a disaster. Has given back all the gains back to October. How could one have seen this coming? Could there be some indicator or something to warn that this could happen? If only there was a picture or a chart.
Anyone enter their K-1 info from the old CMLP yet? My brokerage firm reported the amount that we received in the merger and showed no gain on my 1099-B (i.e. the sales price equaled the cost basis). CMLP did not supply a sales schedule. The disclosure in the proxy statement seemed to indicate that there would be some gain and some ordinary income to report as a result of the merger. My question is what happens to my suspended losses. I don't think I can carry them over to the "new" CMLP.
I just think those analysts have been following my RSI rants and saw NYMT was close to RSI 80 and due for a pullback. Maybe they were also worried about a potential spo with such a big premium to book. Even though NYMT just did one in January, you have to remember that by trading in the single digits, the company doesn't really raise that much money each time they do an offering (last offering raise $75mm) so they could be a frequent issuer if they see an opportunity in the space they are investing.
On a separate note, the 10 yr is creeping up and is approaching resistance in the 2.8% range. We'll see if it gets turned away at that level or runs up to 3%.
Bob, I took a look at NYMT. Most mREITs tell you what the core earnings are since the GAAP earnings numbers can be misleading and really don't help you predict what the dividend could be. I did not see that. I don't think the earnings beat means as much, but it does get picked up by the reporting services. They are clearly benefiting from their investments in subordinated CMBS.
8 mm shares (300k by CEO). No price yet. To be used to fund acquisitions in the pipeline.
Sometimes you can tell when an MLP or REIT is getting ready for an offering if the stock starts to gap up like MPW has in recent days.
jk, not sure if any of these refiner MLPs have UBTI that you would need to be concerned about in a retirement plan or whether your active trading of these names creates a problem. On the iv board they often discuss the UBTI issue.
Ed, I agree. But there has to be a midpoint between "buy stock x, I think it will go up --I'm going to post this message 5 times a day until someone agrees with me and pats me on the head" and "look at me, my portfolio is up, stock xyz is up today."