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Inergy, L.P. Message Board

marklibera 224 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Aug 14, 2007
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  • Reply to

    raymond james reports

    by edwardkeefej Jul 16, 2014 10:01 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 21, 2014 2:49 PM Flag

    stagg, I haven't heard much about NSLP. There's been a ton of MLPs that have come public in the last year and the sector has really caught fire. I'm not sure it's because investors are on board with the energy boom or if they are just chasing anything with yield that is not related to mortgages or lending where a surprise hike in interest rates (like last year's taper tantrum) may have scared some away. Doing a quick look, it looks like NSLP's fields are mostly in OK and not in one of the "hot" shale plays like the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken or Marcellus/Utica. However, one of their presentations mentioned a high % of liquids in one of their recent acquisitions. It is the high liquids concentrations that are benefiting explorers.
    I have so many MLPs and so many e&p MLPs that it would take a lot for me to invest in another unless I got rid of one of the ones that I own (BBEP, VNR, EVEP -- I also own some LNCO). Some have commented that prices are getting a bit lofty in the space, so that may mean that NSLP has some room to catch up.
    Good luck if you invest in NSLP. I'll have to keep an eye on it.

  • Reply to

    raymond james reports

    by edwardkeefej Jul 16, 2014 10:01 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 21, 2014 10:58 AM Flag

    Stagg, I'm back after a weeks vacation.
    As I said, I was initially attracted to the oil and gas MLP sector because of the growth prospects and the yield. I've learned a lot from many of the postings on the i.v. board and the many company presentations. There are lots of ways to play the different shale regions and the different subsectors. Liquids are being moved overseas and chemical companies are building plants in the US to take advantage of the cheap and plentiful natural gas. This is a long-term story.
    The one issue is that the stocks with the best prospects have been bid up and aren't cheap.

  • Reply to

    Bought MEMP on the drop...and RDS-B

    by rbgambler99 Jul 10, 2014 9:58 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 10, 2014 11:08 AM Flag

    I've read some good things about MEMP. They just closed a very large acquisition of some 900mm so they will need to raise a significant amount of equity and term the debt out. Most MLPs try to use a mix of 50/50 debt and equity, so by that metric they would need to raise some 400-500mm. At $22 per share that's some 18 mm shares. The current spo is about 8.6mm shares. I think the need for equity is going to weigh on the shares for a bit of time. Some think that they will announce a dividend increase soon, but I wonder if they could afford that now with the new share issuance.

  • Reply to

    Pre market

    by bobdbeck Jul 10, 2014 8:01 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 10, 2014 9:51 AM Flag

    Bob, you forgot to count your bags of silver nickels and dimes. 1000 gold coins Geez, that hair salon business must have been something.

  • Reply to


    by williamlebotschy Jul 10, 2014 12:58 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 10, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    William, this offering has been anticipated as MEMP made a 800-900mm recent huge acquisition that they put on their credit line.. I would have expected that they would have needed to raise some $400mm in equity and the balance in debt (most MLPs try to use 50% debt and 50% equity to fund acquisitions). I could be wrong because I don't follow this that closely, but I would expect that they still need to raise another 200-300mm in equity after this offering.. Looks like they had about 60+mm shares prior to this spo, so that means at least another 10 mm shares to go. The possible future issuances may keep a lid on MEMP shares in the short term.
    Other posters have been very positive on MEMP and this acquisition.

  • Reply to


    by keebon Jul 7, 2014 2:19 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 10, 2014 9:27 AM Flag

    Stagg, as we have seen over the last few years, it is very difficult to try to time a correction. However, that doesn't mean that they won't come. But with so much money floating around, it usually is something out of left field that sparks the correction. Today, it could be the problem with a bank in Portugal. Of course, the answer to solve this problem, will be more money thrown at it by the world's central banks. There are seasonal things that can cause corrections, like the need for funds to book profits so that their bonuses can be paid, illiquidity that occurs in the summer when trading desks are thinner and most importantly, the trading computers that do most of the trading all of a sudden reacting negatively.
    Remember back in 1987 when the crash was caused by "portfolio insurance" that was supposed to prevent a crash?

  • Reply to

    Pre market

    by bobdbeck Jul 10, 2014 8:01 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 10, 2014 9:20 AM Flag

    We could get a little bumpy here. IMO, the news out of Portugal points out that nothing has been fixed. The banks in Europe are still insolvent and nothing has been done to fix the problem other than driving the price of European debt up so that their banks could make a profit trading it. Did everyone see the yield on the Spanish 10 yr was around the same level as ours? Yea, Spain is in the same shape as the US.

  • Reply to

    dropping stock price?

    by kenwood031888 Jul 7, 2014 1:41 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 8, 2014 3:47 PM Flag

    The stock has been on a tremendous run since last year when it traded below $55. It is due to take a break. The entire MLP sector has also been on a run. Since breaking out of its sideways trend last year, the stock has gone up in a nice upward sloping channel, occasionally hitting the top end of the channel, then correcting back into the channel. It has not even tested its 50 dma throughout this entire move up, although it is now getting close. The next distribution, which should be a nice increase, will be announced soon and the reaction to that news (is it already priced in?) will say a lot about the future direction (more sideways or onward and upward).

  • Reply to

    Ten year treasury note dont lie

    by jackhiller Jul 8, 2014 10:27 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 8, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    Well it doesn't lie in the longer run, but it is prone to fake moves at the hands of the robot traders. The question is whether the next economic stats will push the yield below the lower support around 2.47%. That level has held, more or less, on 4 occasions going back to Jun 2013.

  • marklibera by marklibera Jul 8, 2014 11:25 AM Flag

    PAGP announced an increased dividend. 7.5% over last quarter and 23% over the initial rate. I chased it last week and will be looking to add more if it goes a little lower.

    The MLPs have been strong over the last few weeks so they should be pausing and pulling back a bit. But the distribution increase announcements are coming.

  • marklibera marklibera Jul 7, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    That has to be the silliest post of all time. Why would CHK spend money that it doesn't have to buy CHKR shares that are trading for more than they are worth? You might think that they would do so in order to get the 23% "dividend" except that that dividend is not going to continue at the present rate forever. You say "that is what appears to be happening" but if CHK was buying any shares of CHKR under Securities Exchange Act rules they would have to report those purchases within 2 days. The fact is that CHK is carrying its 23.6 million units in CHKR at $174million (see their 10-k). Do the math.

  • Reply to

    Sold NYMT....Buying bank stocks.

    by rbgambler99 Jul 3, 2014 2:20 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 3, 2014 3:46 PM Flag

    Gambler, I understand where you are coming from, but I disagree. The economy is just not strong enough despite headline news of jobs (the bulk of job gains is still part-time). Plus there is still no wage inflation. We will see when the next economic reports come in. High food and gas prices will keep the consumer under wraps.
    I agree the Fed is in a box of its own making. Inflation is up no matter what the adjusted stats say. The Fed says they want inflation, but once inflation starts, you can't stop it unless you jeopardize the entire economy with a recession.
    happy 4th to all.

  • Reply to

    Look out interest rates popped--REITS down

    by madmax19471952 Jul 3, 2014 10:03 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 3, 2014 1:11 PM Flag

    Stagg, I think rates will decline again after this recent increase, once it becomes apparent that the economy is slowing again or at least not growing fast. Goldman just cut their Q2 GDP forecast. Plenty of articles on different blogs that look into the different reports and provide a less than rosy view of the economy.

  • Reply to

    Look out interest rates popped--REITS down

    by madmax19471952 Jul 3, 2014 10:03 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 3, 2014 11:44 AM Flag

    Sarge, a couple of points. First, the headline numbers always move the robots that trade Treasuries. The 10 yr jumped but ran into resistance at the 200 dma at 2.69%. We will see next week if the market really believes that the jobs number means the economy is getting stronger. The jobs number included a DECLINE in full-time jobs and an increase in part-time mostly low wage retail and hospitality jobs. The participation rate is still at all time lows. And the birth-death model added 121,000 jobs (yes the BLS is not real actual job info, but a model). With rates increasing, one would have thought that the nonagency mREITs would rise, so this tells me that the story of a stronger economy has some holes, although the initial rise did hurt agency mREITS somewhat.
    I think interest rates remain in a range. Strong economic stats push rates toward 3%, but weak stats push them back down. The next GDP estimate is due at the end of July. The leading indicators number is due in mid-July. Read an article yesterday that said there was a lot of inventory accumulation in the first quarter that is not being worked off, thereof producers will have to cut in upcoming quarters.
    I am looking to add more WMC, maybe around $13.50 if it gets there or if rates get closer to 2.8%. Also going to add some closed-end muni funds in here as they dived with the jobs number and are now approaching oversold RSI levels.

  • Reply to

    Jobs report is potentially very misleading

    by jackhiller Jul 3, 2014 10:03 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 3, 2014 11:31 AM Flag

    Jack, you are right and you didn't even mention the stats that showed full-time jobs fell while part-time jobs increased. Then there is the birth-death model adjustments which added 121k this month. But as I predicted, the 10 yr rate initially rose from this headline and ran smack into resistance at the 200 dma at 2.69%. We will see if the market really believes the jobs report indicates a strengthening economy. WMC is holding in there considering the headline news.

  • Reply to

    o/t KMP & EPB a focus on LNG

    by madmax19471952 Jul 3, 2014 8:59 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 3, 2014 9:55 AM Flag

    I've owned AR since last year. Should have bought it when it came public in the $40's. Because I also own EVEP, I was following news on the Utica/Marcellus shale area and they were always mentioning Antero as having huge acreage with great potential. AR should get a pop when they bring their midstream unit public as it will bring out the value of that unit. Not sure if AR will spin off the remaining amount that they own. You can view their S-1 to see the growth in the midstream unit. My one concern is that the entire midstream sector has gotten very popular and the IPO price might get pricey.

  • Reply to

    U.S. adds 281,000 private-sector jobs

    by itsabeach5054 Jul 2, 2014 11:10 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 3, 2014 9:41 AM Flag

    You didn't create that job.

  • Reply to

    o/t KMP & EPB a focus on LNG

    by madmax19471952 Jul 3, 2014 8:59 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 3, 2014 9:08 AM Flag

    SArge, the Elba Island news was already well-known and revenues from it are still a ways off. EPB got oversold after their distribution guidance was flat. They got a bump from all of the LNG news because of Ukraine and all of the other LNG plays. But MLPs move based on distribution growth and EPB's will be flat. Still, you get to collect a good coupon while you wait. But it's not going to be a rocket like the gp's that I have mentioned.

    Don't know if you saw this, but there's an item about Antero's (AR) wells in the Utica. Mentioned as among the best. They are IPOing their midstream unit, probably in August. The midstream unit has a water disposal operation for fracking. Their growth will be huge. Don't know what the initial yield will be yet, but don't let a small initial yield stand in your way.

  • Reply to


    by palestone Jul 2, 2014 1:52 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 3, 2014 9:00 AM Flag

    Agree that everything LNG appears a little frothy. But wait to late Fall when Russia turns off the gas to Ukraine and everything LNG will get another push.

  • Reply to

    Let It Dive A While

    by johnsonjoel1 Jul 2, 2014 12:27 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 2, 2014 1:07 PM Flag

    The dividend news is already old and the book value and earnings have probably already (or should have) been priced into the stock. With the next dividend still a long ways off, I think WMC moves inversely with the perception of the economic news. If it looks like rates are going up, then the stock will decline. Jack is probably right about what's really going on with the economy, but the trading robots don't do analysis, they just trade the headlines and the headlines don't delve into the numbers, and don't separate the model-based from actual.

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