Well it was dicey there for a bit when LNCO went lower than my purchase price. Since the point of the trade was to eliminate a K-1 and take advantage of the discount in the LNCO shares, I unloaded my LINE today on the bounce to the 50 dma. LINE is so controversial that it will probably go sideways for a bit until they do an acquisition or swap of assets.
Helmut, HRZN looks to have hit some resistance. Is this a BDC that is going to get sold off like HTGC and PSEC did? That is a clear and present danger.
stagg, this is where technicals can be of some help in diciphering the odds. As I mentioned many times before, HTGC looked like it was in a downtrend channel. The overbought condition that was triggered several weeks ago finally took its effect, and while HTGC was able to rally, it was not able to get back in the upward trend channel. OZM had a similar pattern. The recent rise over the 50 dma was a fakeout rally.
Now no one could have seen the S&P decision coming, so I'm not saying that the technicals foresaw that. HTGC appears to be now sitting right on triple bottom support. If that doesn't hold, look out. If it does hold, the stock could make a run back to its 50 dma,which would be resistance. The support below is at the 200 dma at 14.92 and below at 13.50. The stock is not truly oversold yet as the RSI is only 38 and I have not looked at the volume figures.
This has almost nothing to do with the fundamentals. The stock broke down and out of its upward channel and now it is going to have to repair this damage through time.
I am not a pro at understanding the technicals but am trying to use them to avoid buying falling knives and stocks that are overbought. We have seen similar patterns with MPW (not picking on you Helmut) where stocks whose upward channels get broken, can take a while to resume the upward trend even though fundamentals remain strong.
SFL: considering a buy on a pullback
SDRL: it may drift up, but I'll wait
PSEC: nice rebound today; I added some yesterday
HTGC: looks still in a downtrend and I don't want more BDC exposure
BDCL: some may like the leverage exposure, but I'm passing, same with MLPL
LINE/LNCO: bought some LNCO, will look to sell LINE on a bounce up
MWE: testing support, could break lower, then I would add
MMP: nibbled, but it looks to still be testing support
KMI/KMP: passing; one can't have so many controversial stocks in the portfolio
TRGP: great run, but thinking of selling some or writing covered calls as it gets close to $100
mREITs: still have a residual MTGE position, but avoiding sector for now; would reconsider if rates ran up to 3% and hit resistance
property REITS; MPW is doing nothing, waiting for GPT to announce their dividend, considering STAG on a pullback or as a replacement for MPW
Muni closed ends: I need some tax-free income, but waiting for a pullback/rise in rates
jk's other picks: need to explore
NRZ: debating whether to trade in and out as it seem to peak at $7; would probably add on a decline from the offering
Vin, many garages now have the charging stations so it is possible to charge during the day while you are working. I think these types of charging stations are more powerful than the typical home version. You point out the big drawback and that is if you are planning a longer road trip. I would guess that charging stations will spread like gas stations did.
Soulec makes a good point though that the other car companies are not going to stand by and watch Tesla have the entire market. BMW was running commercials during the Olympics about its electric cars.
Bob, I've been in the car too. But my usual warning, RSI over 80 now. Last Oct, it went over RSI 70 and then fell 70 points from 190 to 120. Then again, I missed Starbucks, Google, Apple, Linkedin, Facebook, Netflix and Twitter and a host of other highfliers (i did trade FB on the open for a small profit), but I also missed the declines in Iomega, Crocs, Taser and Blackberry.
Maybe this is one to play with options? Huff? Bull spreads?
So what's your point? Until we get the 10 k, there's not going to be any more info. There is a big downside risk for the units if they say something negative in the 10k.
Soulec, this is one of the reasons why I have attempted to learn technical analysis to spot these inflection points. There is a big difference between a stock that is in an upward channel that dips to the bottom of the channel but is still basically going up and one that has rolled over that is heading down. Similarly, on the downside, it pays to learn how to recognize a stock that is forming a bottom and one that is a falling knife. Those are two of the most common investor mistakes: not selling a stock that is rolling over and not buying a falling knife.
SFL looks to be pushing the top of its upward channel. It is almost overbought, but it cleared a quadruple top back in Jan, so it looks poised to continue upward, perhaps after a slight pullback once it goes over RSI 70. I haven't been looking at the Point and Figure charts on anything for a long time, but they can be useful.
So maybe it's not just CHKR, but maybe it's the field that is the problem. If it was an operational problem, it would be possible for CHK to fix, but if it is the field, there's probably not a fix. It would be interesting to see what other companies are reporting in the Granite Wash.
Gambler, you can't always base a quarter on GAAP numbers. SFL is similar to MLPs in that they have so many different accounting things going on that the true condition of the business may not be reflected in GAAP earnings (i.e. for MLPs DCF is the key metric). It seems that all of the Friedrickson companies employ the same strategies that there is risk that this is a giant shell game. Even if all of it is legitimate, there is always the risk that the market perception will be that it is a shell game (the decline in SDRL was due in part to this perception).
I will say that a 1 cent increase in the divy is no big deal. Sure it is better than a cut, but it only amounts to the company paying $900,000 more per quarter (based on 90mm shares). Someone once said in the context of meeting earnings that if your CEO can't find an extra penny, they should be fired.
I have not looked deeply into SFL's earnings to see if I can make sense. I sold my SFL last spring when it broke support and have not thought about re-entering. It is a difficult investment to make on the basis of fundamentals because the industry is hard to follow and because of their interrelated investments in things like FRO. That's why I turned to technical analysis to help me better judged whether to enter or exit this stock.
Stagg, LINE is still suffering the effects of the Hedgeye/Barrons hit job. Those that bought at the bottom around $22 now have a nice gain, even with today's decline. So just like your timely purchases with SFL, one can profit from excess movements in a stock.
As I mentioned in a different response, you can't just look at the spot prices.
Now I have several MLP positions so owning MLPL would just increase my exposure, which is already high. Plus MLP is leveraged so if there was a decline due to noise about tax changes or something, it would increase my loss. The distributions on MLPL are taxed as bond interest, whereas MLP distributions are tax-deferred.
Several of the e&p firms have underperformed compared to midstreams. But I don't think they are in jeopardy of cutting distributions so I can afford to wait for a while longer to see if the companies can improve. Selling when they are out of favor may not be the best move, unless there are clear signs of deterioration in the prospects.
I would add that the nat gas story is not just about the NYMEX spot price but its also about the liquids (NGLS). It's also about the shift in industrial plants and utilities from coal. Eventually LNG exports may impact both supply and demand.
Sometimes I have to present both arguments. Recently, I have been buying puts on several of the royalty trusts (SDT and CHKR) because of what I believe are defective instruments. So I spend some time debating longs that LNG exports are not going to rescue those trusts from poor performance.
As for oil, unless we get a global recession, the price will hold up. It is possible, however, that we get a global recession. They do occur, especially when everyone is chasing yield and when low rates make malinvestment and bubbles more probable. There are also many different grades of oil and the transportation issues and costs and availabilities are also impacting this sector. The sector is too complex to just conclude that there are no opportunities to invest (i.e. CELP is an MLP that just came public specializing in frac water disposal and pipeline inspection).
Sorry Sarge, but I didn't find Soulec's recent posts to be bad. Everyone can fall into the cheerleader camp every now and then, some are more prone to it than others, but he didn't do anything worse that many have done.
stagg, taking a page out of your book, I looked up the Total Returns on LINE over the last 10 years. If I did this correctly, the total return was 199%, which is better than SFL. Where you sit is where you stand.
I agree with you that for capital gains, there are many other e&p firms that could deliver better. I recently purchased some AR. But traditional e&p firms pay low or no dividends and have a lot of risk without the cushion of the dividend. The MLP firms pay about 10% (tax deferred) but like I have argued, the divy won't help if they cut it or if something hurts the overall business and investors begin to fear a divy cut. When buying an e&p firm, you are trusting that they know the geology and are not overpaying for acquisitions or drilling.
There is no investment that is a sure thing, even if they have a good long-term track record (like SDRL and SFL). Industries can change. MLPs are no different and with so many MLPs, they may end up fighting over the same areas, increasing the costs for all of them and lowering their overall returns. Competition can do this. The same can be said for many sectors without moatsy (like Buffett likes to say).
I don't know enough about geology to comment whether the shale revolution is here to stay for the long-term and which energy firms may be impacted (is deepwater exploration suffering in comparison?). Not all of the shale plays are producing as expected (the dry gas areas got hit when nat gas prices fell. But LINE is in the Permian and that is expected to be a monster play for many years (whereas the Granite Wash seems to be disappointing).
Lots of e&p MLPs are coming up a little light in their Q4 reports and their shares are getting whacked on the open. I think it's a bit of an overreaction to the headlines as many of them had better guidance, at least from what I can tell. If ARP can produce a good quarter, they stand the chance to pick up some of those investment dollars that are leaving some of these other names. On the otherhand, if they miss, look for a quick selloff. I wonder if puts are worth the insurance.
I took advantage of the earnings miss and bought some LNCO. Will sell LINE after the bounce after the earnings call. Many of the e&p companies are reporting light quarters. I think it's an overreaction.
I know today was supposed to be an all-SFL day, but did anyone ever switch their LINE holdings for LinnCo and do you remember what the tax hit was? I just realized that they are paying the same amount of distribution and LNCO is trading for $2 less and in the recent earnings release, they stated that there would be no taxes due on LNCO distributions through 2018. The 2013 Line K-1 is not yet available so I can't access the chart that lets you see your gain or loss if you want to sell units. Selling LINE eliminates one K-1 which would allow me to add one to take its place.
I saw the first trades go off greater than $11 (and Yahoo lists the daily range up to 11.02). Did not see it open at 10.92. Was watching it on Fidelity so maybe that is the problem.