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Inergy, L.P. Message Board

marklibera 438 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 hours ago Member since: Aug 14, 2007
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  • marklibera marklibera Nov 19, 2014 12:46 PM Flag

    Any increase in EVEP stock depends on a monetization of their Utica acreage and a return to doing what the MLP was initially formed for -- buying long-lived producing properties. There should be an acquisition soon as they have the proceeds from the sale of Eagle Ford properties that have to be redeployed in order to obtain like-kind exchange tax treatment. I think they said on the earnings call that properties have to be identified by the end of November. Hopefully they don't issue common equity to pay for part of the acquisition price.

  • Reply to

    O/T NADL

    by huffdaland Nov 18, 2014 11:14 AM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 19, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    "Dollar cost averaging will not always made us money but it will 'help us lose less".

    This is totally non-sensical. It is true, if and only if, the stock comes back and increases over your average price. There are plenty of stocks that never came back.

  • Reply to

    O/T NADL

    by huffdaland Nov 18, 2014 11:14 AM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 19, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    Unfortunately, I am still in NADL. I just saw the 20% drop a minute ago. I thought this was going to go the slow bleed route a la SDRL and SDLP which is why I said it was premature to average down, especially with nothing new reported. Although in retrospect, it does show that dollar cost averaging is a sure way to lose money if you don't know where the bottom is. I am reminded of that big investor, Joe Lewis who kept buying Bear Stearns from $100 all the way down to $10. Never heard what happened to him.
    If this does go to $2, it doesn't mean that stepping in to buy is going to be any easier of a decision at that point since if it drops to $2, it will probably be due to some announcement. I still have not sold SDLP yet even though it is on my tax-loss list and seems to be in better shape than both SDRL and NADL in that they just raised their divy. As I said earlier, SDLP may just be getting hit because of its association with SDRL, which you think the market may recognize eventually.
    Still in Aapl and since that is in my wife's account, she probably won't sell it.

  • the street dot #$%$ has NRZ as a sell because (and I quote), "it reported significant earnings per share improvement in the most recent quarter," "net income growth has significantly exceeded that of the S&P," 'the gross profit margin is very high." The algos that trade the headlines might knock it down a bit and create a nice buying opportunity heading into the next divy announcement.

  • marklibera by marklibera Nov 19, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    Noticed that the street has one of their stupid headlines listing NRZ as a stock to sell (they did this with WMC before). Anyone who has ever bothered to read any of these reports knows that the writers usually don't know what they are talking about (the piece on WMC showed positive fundamentals, yet the stock was still a sell in their opinion). This might produce a decline in NRZ and a buying opportunity. NRZ has had a pattern of declaring a special dividend every other quarter, so they might have one for Q4, which should be announced in early Dec. They also had some post-Q3 gains that will be reflected in Q4 earnings (the news is already out on those gains, but the algos that trade will pick up the positive news when the Q4 earnings are announced in early 2015. Also, Leon Cooperman has bought a large block of shares.

  • Reply to

    O/T....YHOO...I am the kiss of death

    by rbgambler99 Nov 19, 2014 10:13 AM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 19, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    Gambler, I think it is just profit taking or typical option expiration week activity. There is some speculation that Yahoo may announce their plan soon, but I think they will wait until they report in Jan which should be AFTER the January options expiration. That means one has to buy Feb options if one wants to be sure to catch the spin-off announcement. I think mgmt is also waiting because as long as the plan is still to be announced, the raiders won't be able to criticize it and mount a proxy battle. There have been lots of articles on how much Yahoo could be worth with some figures over $70.
    Despite what seems like a sure thing, I am not going to be betting the farm on this, as whenever I think I have found a "bet the farm" stock, something always goes wrong. I am going to stick with using options. As for BABA, the stock (not the business) reminds me of GOOG when it first came public.

  • Reply to

    ex div date

    by the4ateam2004 Nov 15, 2014 10:54 AM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 19, 2014 10:37 AM Flag

    Grgsvll, many posts were doing the same thing on other message boards. The S.A. article points out that their oil production is declining. The hedges will help out this quarter, but this is a lost cause. It is due to catch up with the other trusts (SDT SDR and PER) in the rate of decline. Because CHKR didn't really run up into the distribution announcement, I didn't play the puts this quarter. These trusts are difficult to short because the shares are hard to borrow. Since we are getting into tax-loss selling time, there should be added selling in these shares. As I stated before, this should go to $7 or below. Come March, they will no doubt show more deterioration in their PV-10 and CHK will probably mark-down their value of the subordinate shares that they hold to under $6. When CHK finally unloads those shares, a bomb is going to go off and holders are going to wonder what hit them.

  • Reply to

    ex div date

    by the4ateam2004 Nov 15, 2014 10:54 AM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 18, 2014 3:27 PM Flag

    If you are in this stock and donu0027t know the history of how it reacts after the ex-date, then you really need to get a clue. Someone has been publishing analysis on Seeking alpha on many of these similar trusts (SDT SDR PER and CHKR) after they report their earnings. CHKR is going to $7 eventually and probably lower.

  • Reply to

    O/T NADL

    by huffdaland Nov 18, 2014 11:14 AM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 18, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    I would rather wait until they cut the divy and the stock flushes down to $2. Then the weak hands are out. If they maintain the divy, it might get a bounce, but then it will be sold after the ex-date and probably continue down through tax loss season. Unfortunately, I bought this in my IRA and already added when the RSI went to 11.

    These drillers -- NADL, SDRL and SDLP -- have absolutely stunk up the joint. Too many people too confident in the so-called great JF. Reminds me of the time when everyone was too confident in the dry bulk shippers. Confirmation and group bias at work. At least I didn#$%$ buy SDRL.

  • Reply to

    O/T....Buy YHOO/stock or options

    by rbgambler99 Nov 17, 2014 2:13 PM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 17, 2014 5:26 PM Flag

    Gambler, I'm thinking of adding to my Yahoo options by buying some Jan calls. Not sure which strike price. I still have the Nov options that expire this week and will probably hold until Friday in case there is some announcement on the tax spin. I'm not expecting one, but just in case. I agree that Yahoo could run some more in spite of their management. Too bad I didn't buy more BABA options or hold the ones I bought for a few more days, but I thought it would need time to digest its gains from the IPO. Still a 3 bagger is not bad for about 2 weeks. Because of the Yahoo and BABA option gains, I'm going to have substantial realized gains for the year and will have to sell everything that has a current loss. Sold LNCO last week. Next up is SDLP and then HCLP. I might revisit HCLP later when oil stabilizes.

  • Reply to

    Can we take

    by clarjo02 Nov 9, 2014 11:59 PM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 14, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    The majority of the merger comp is in stock. I think only $1.25 is in cash.

  • marklibera marklibera Nov 14, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    Well I'll try one more time. In 2011, NYMT had GAAP earnings of $0.46, but they paid a dividend of $1.00. This proves the disconnect between GAAP earnings, and taxable earnings -- the latter of which determines the dividend payment requirement. Despite what you say, the special dividend was not because of great earnings, but solely because they had not paid enough dividends during 2011 to satisfy their REIT requirement. So much for your FACT that they paid out a special because of the great performance. The press release announcing the special dividend in 2011 says as much -- that they were required to pay the special to meet their REIT requirement. But feel free to believe in the tooth fairy, Santa Claus and the easter bunny.

  • Reply to

    AWLCF IS STILL DOING FINE...!

    by staggman99 Nov 13, 2014 8:14 AM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 14, 2014 12:13 PM Flag

    rogers, "doing great" is relative. AWLCF is down from $24 at the beginning of the year, so while that's not the same decline that SDRL took (SDRL is down almost 50%) it is still substantial. Yes, they did have a good quarter, but is it smart to chase the dividend when that represents last quarter? Some on the AWLCF board have said that the company guided lower for next year. The numbers are in their presentation so one can attempt to estimate next quarter's dividend (there's not many moving parts to it: revenues from 2 rigs, opex, g&a and the tax rate). The big difference between AWLCF and SDRL may be the amount of debt. AWLCF refinanced theirs -- but you always have to check to see when principal payments are due and when the maturity is.
    At any rate, always look at the entire picture whenever someone pumps how great a stock (usually in their own portfolio) is doing.

  • Reply to

    o/t APPLE paid a nice divi today

    by madmax19471952 Nov 13, 2014 10:03 AM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 14, 2014 11:06 AM Flag

    aapl looking a tad bit overbought with RSI over 80. When it gets to those RSI levels, it tends to continue up for 2 weeks before correctling. It is also over the upperbound of its trendline, no doubt in anticipation of great Christmas sales.

  • marklibera marklibera Nov 14, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    Good point, and several other mREITs (MTGE and AGNC) in the past have stated how much undistributed taxable earnings they have. One would think that if NYMT had such amounts that they would disclose.

  • marklibera marklibera Nov 14, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    Again, you are focusing on their GAAP earnings in 2011 without any reference to their taxable earnings back in 2011. Since that information should be available in their 10K, you can easily it out instead of just guessing that the GAAP and tax numbers were the same.
    And again, you are being extremely naive about how you think management thinks about a dividend (whether paid in cash or stock). No company would agree to send out more capital than they are required to.

    Think of it this way. You are saying the last time it was this cold, it snowed. I'm saying snow depends on cold weather and moisture. You are ignoring whether there is any moisture in the air.

  • Reply to

    OT Sold my NCT. The devil made me do it

    by jerseyvinny2 Nov 14, 2014 9:05 AM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 14, 2014 9:36 AM Flag

    Vin, be careful with those brokerage reports on adjusted basis. Etrade was showing my NRZ with a 100% gain after their reverse split. You would think there was a seemless process to update cost basis, but you have to check everything.

  • Reply to

    OK, I don't know jack...

    by mitschkenator Nov 13, 2014 12:37 PM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 13, 2014 5:12 PM Flag

    Well if you are in PER, you are clearly in trouble. I'll leave it to you to investigate for yourself why it may be useful to understand the difference between a liquidating trust and an operating business.

  • marklibera marklibera Nov 13, 2014 5:10 PM Flag

    Well, you are now coming off your previous language which I quote from a previous post: "'adds up to a 15 to 20 cent special div at year end." You were pretty definitive there. There's nothing about "hoping" for a special dividend.
    And yes, you do have a faulty assumption and that is that you think management believes the best way to run the company is to declare a special dividend, notwithstanding the reasons which I spelled out why they don't pay them unless it is to meet REIT requirements. And there is that little thing about having the money to pay the special dividend.

    It's also clear you don't know where the money comes from to pay dividends or even how much is needed. Perhaps you ought to look at the cashflow statement and tell us where the cash comes from to pay such a special dividend.

    Sorry if I sound pedantic, but mREITs and especially mREITS that invest in subordinated CMBS and use securitization vehicles are difficult stocks to analyze without knowing how the accounting works and the interplay between GAAP and tax requirements. That is why the better run mREITs try to break out the core earnings from the GAAP numbers to give investors a better expectation of what cash the business generates for dividend paying purposes so that investors don't get misled by the GAAP presentation.

  • Reply to

    I went out this morning about 11:15 but not before

    by bobdbeck Nov 13, 2014 3:30 PM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 13, 2014 4:06 PM Flag

    bob, I heard today that there are predictions for $65 oil. I sold LNCO to book a tax loss and will be selling SDLP soon. I'll miss the monthly divy on LNCO, but the downside could still be greater than the divy.

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