Bob, this is a topic for another discussion, but there have been so many posts on this board about high dividend stocks going bad (I have several in my history of investing). That's why I have been more and more skeptical about them. It would be nice to compile a list of the ones that kept chugging along with only limited corrections from those that inevitably blow up.
I don't know if you caught it in my weekend post from Barrons quoting the TRowe Price mutual fund manager, but the key with high yield is knowing when to get out. Easier said than done.
Finally Stagg you are starting to show the right amount of skepticism. No more believing in a stock just because it has a high yield, or the CEO writes a letter or buys stock or promises that they will pay the divy (or promises a spinoff???).
I haven't been following all of these boat stocks that are discussed frequently, but they seem to be traps for yield chasers. I'm sure some have worked out for some for a period.
Kbon, I had not realized that TWO had outperformed WMC by such a large amount. I can't remember how I came to play WMC myself. A few years back, AGNC was all the rage as agency MBS were enjoying price appreciation as mortgage rates came down. Meanwhile, WMC was paying a larger dividend then most mREITs and it was mentioned on their message board that they had a portfolio of IOs and inverse IOs that generated this excess cash that enabled such a high dividend. They also remained mostly an agency mREIT (while others started to move into nonagencies and commercial). With the economy weak and the 10 yr declining, I started to play WMC instead of the other mREITs to benefit from their agency holdings. The stock has been tricky. They are now migrating into other assets like commercial and nonagencies which I think was the right thing to do, but there have been comments that they are overhedged. So it sounds like I was attracted to WMC mostly because of the high divy, but not just because of the high number, but because there was info from a reliable source that there was an income stream that differentiated WMC from lower yielding mREITs. The yield remains high because the market has not bid the price up to bring the yield down to a level with the other mREITs, and that says something.
I do have it on a tight leash. It could get whipsawed by the Fed or if they lower their divy. Their core earnings is generating 65 cents so they could reduce the divy somewhat, but the market could take that in stride or it could overreact. Unfortunately, option prices aren't that good last I looked. Frankly, I was looking to sell it on a bounce up into the mid $15s, but you know how it goes when a stock starts going up and then you start changing your mind and wanting to run with it longer. They should announce the divy this week and of course we have the Fed decision tomorrow.
Another article, this time a survey from Merrill Lynch saying asset allocators are underweighing US stocks to the highest level since 2008. We all know what happened then. We could get one big move up in US averages, especially if the Fed says the right thing, but my guess is that large institutional investors will be selling into that rally.
sam, this is a common mistake made by novices on just about every mREIT message board. It is even made by some authors of seeking alpha articles (which only makes it worse when they write about REITs and don't know the REIT dividend rules themselves). I suggest you read the disclosure in any mREIT or REITs 10K that describes the tax rules for maintaining their REIT status. Then you won't make the investment mistake of buying an mREIT or REIT stock solely because some poster on a message board or author of a seeking alpha article said that the mREIT or REIT was going to have to pay a special dividend because they had paid out less than 90% of their GAAP income.
Sarge, I thought you had me on ignore? If you want to debate like a real man, let's debate, but if you just want to throw insults because you were a soldier and somehow that gives you the right to insult people and call them names, and challenge their right to freedom of expression, then put me back on ignore.
Can't be proven on a message board. You lose again. But Keebon didn't mention you by name because he knew you didn't know anything about TRGP. William said to post facts and knowledge, not dump data that you don't even know how to use. Really, Zacks and TheStreet recommendations? What a joke!
They are going to short this down to below $5. Sometimes when a big hedge fund takes a large position like Cooperman did, the other hedgies gang up to try to squeeze him by shorting the heck out of it. The new ATLS is not that liquid and Cooperman put a target on his back by pumping it so many times on TV.
Piece about one of the early investors in a company called Paydiant. Talks about Apple Pay.
But we have patent protection. We have 100 claims on our intellectual property. We had Payment Card Industry Level 1 and Level 2 compliance, FSI audits. I mean, we've been pouring concrete for five years. Payments isn't easy.Apple Pay shined a very bright spotlight on the mobile payment space. But even though they are a really big company and they can buy a small company, they're a bit player in payments. All they do is arrange so their phone talks to a network signaling terminal and they can tokenize that little short haul of the transaction. But that's where they begin and end. They don't do anything more than that right now.But Apple Pay made everyone aware of the opportunity and it scared the pants off everybody they compete with, including banks and insurers and retailers. That caused a number of players out there to come to us and, ultimately including PayPal, and say, "We've got to own this platform so that we compete."
Explains a little about the mobile pay sector and the competition among the players.
To protect yourself, you better run those numbers or find someone who has. We have seen other CEOs and BODs pledge support for maintaining dividends in so many stocks that later cut. SDRL, almost every e&p MLP, PSEC. I'm sure there are many others.
Trust but verify.
Stagg, now you are going to tell me what I can and can't post? It's a free country and a free message board. I guess you aren't taking William's post to heart.
What's real time data anyway? You mean the useless dribble of Zacks and Cramer recommendations that you think posters want to read? You mean technical info from programs that you don't even understand? You mean constantly reminding everyone what's in your portfolio without any further discussion of why you bought it, what your target is and what could change your reasoning?
Some people solicit my comments. Did you not see Keebon's request for info on TRGP on the SFL board? Funny, I did not see your name in his request for an opinion, yet you replied and you hardly know anything about the company other than what you can paste from other sites. Did you not see my post last week on ARI or read any of my posts on the Fed interest rate discussion? Did you not see my post on the flow of funds and my mention of HEDJ?
You are just a silly, old man.
My other post didn't take (must be Stagg's fault). I don't know where you bought NMM, but it had one ugly chart when it broke through its 200dma and failed a retest back at the end of last year. The stock became way overbought and was due for a nice bounce, as many stocks that become overbought at the end of a year do. But it looks like it ran up from $5 to $13. What was the basis for this run-up other than technical?
It's hard to see these technical signs in the heat of the battle, especially if everyone is jumping on the bandwagon, but it looks like a clear triple top was formed when it couldn't take out its high at $13.
kee, I think they did an offering back in Nov or Dec before the merger closed. If you read the mlpguy blog, you will see that many MLPs are doing spo's and bond offerings. There is an old saying that "you raise capital when you can, not when you need it because it might not be available when you really need it."
As for management competence, they have been real good operators of their business. I've listened to a few of their calls and they are straight shooters (in contrast to the ATLS guys). But I think even the best operators didn't see the plunge coming in commodity prices. Not sure why you think there should be a class action suit against TRGP. If anyone deserves to be sued its the ATLS spinoff for projecting their distribution at $2.20 and then changing it TWO WEEKS after the merger. That stock is going under $5 with another reverse to follow.
Not in front of the Fed. While if you bet right, you could be a winner (with any stock) if the Fed decision goes right for stocks, but why take that chance (unless you hedge)?
As I said before when I booked my profit in TRGP, I liked the company, but I thought that their guidance was based on commodity prices that were too high. I would rather wait to see if they hit their guidance or miss. Misses are punished more severely than hits are rewarded.
As for the ETE takeover, that's another lesson in not letting taxes have too much influence on your investment decisions. I had over a double in less than 1 year, but it would have been taxed at my ordinary rate and put me through the ACA additional tax on investments threshold. I had to get to November for long-term treatment.
Many think TRGP could be acquired at some point, probably when we get through this cycle, but it could also by a buyer of MWE.
I could be wrong on TRGP and miss a bounce, but I am ok with that.
And Zacks is iffy at best. I don't know why people post Zacks or Cramer recommendations like they add to the discussion. The real investors on this board, know the #$%$ from those who are just trying (in vain) to be relevant.
First, you have no idea what my assets are. And no, Stagg, you can't verify your assets on a message board unless you foolishly posted your tax return and financial statement with your real name. Besides the point, it doesn't matter. Investing is not a competition between individual investors. It is you who resorts to pulling out his ___ to measure. Typically 3rd grade bully action.
Unlike you, I don't come to these boards for adoration I have views to offer and some relevant experience, and I have learned from others who post more relevant info than just recapping Cramer or Fast Money.
As for getting out of nat gas and oil, many of us made that mistake. But your arguments were not persuasive at the time, and I note that if you were so sure, why didn't you short the sector? The only point you kept making over and over again was that you didn't like LINE (which I avoided until their SEC dispute was resolved -- but why let the facts get in the way when you can make accusations) and that you owned MLPL because you couldn't deal with K-1's. If you are so smart, why can't you do your own taxes?
One common thing among posters on these boards is that we all have had the experience of holding a stock too long. I try to offer ways to avoid those mistakes and you offer what you offer. BTW, I did sell TRGP, WGP, MWE and APL, all with gains, but not because of anything you said. And I did cut my losses early in SDLP, AM, CMLP and HCLP, but not because of anything you said.
So get off my back Stagg, and go rent a room with Sarge where you can be like the chipmunks Chip and Dale and pat each other on the back.
Kee, two points. NRZ is a mortgage REIT that specializes in excess servicing. Second, they also own a portfolio of consumer and other loans with their investment in Springleaf. In the Q3 earnings call, they mentioned a huge re-securitization transaction in which they booked a huge profit. Consumer and nonagency mortgages do better when the economy is growing (people getting jobs can pay their bills and use more credit etc.).
However, the market can make the mistake of treating all REITs and mREITs the same when reacting to Fed announcements, even if certain of the subsector in this sector actually perform better when rates are rising. But such overreactions can create buying opportunities.
Finally, no one walks on water and the guys running NRZ did have a near death experience with NCT when the financial crisis came. So you can't just blindly follow anyone.
Merovingian, welcome to the board. I mentioned ARI a couple of weeks ago when they did their spo. Looks like it is finally digested. At this point in the cycle, commercial usually starts to outperform residential. But the wildcard is that the Fed could spook the market Wednesday. The stock has a great chart.
Kee, maybe you misread what I wrote. The 2 areas with the greatest inflows are Western European stock AND bond funds, so yes it would be a good time to buy a European stock fund. I bought the Wisdom Tree Hedged European Stock fund (HEDJ) a few weeks back and mentioned that over the weekend. in my post "Europe and Japan."
I think it's too early still JIm, unless you are just playing for a technical bounce. The Fed decision on Wednesday could cause gyrations either way in the market. Some e&p MLPs are being dropped from the Alerian indices so they are selling off, but they could get a bounce when this selling abates. Spring is coming and that is likely to cause a drop in nat gas prices, but before driving season causes an increase in demand for oil. April is borrowing base redeterminations for many e&p firms, but many could skate by. I think the Q1 earnings report should shed more light on where they are going.
Maybe its better to play options instead. Calls are probably cheap and puts are probably expensive.