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Inergy, L.P. Message Board

marklibera 440 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 hours ago Member since: Aug 14, 2007
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  • Reply to

    P of Oil continues its trek to the $70 range.

    by rbgambler99 Nov 5, 2014 9:59 AM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 5, 2014 10:40 AM Flag

    Yes, there are two: First, politically, the US, with cooperation from their allies in Saudi Arabia is trying to squeeze Putin. Second, is the effects of hedging. There was an article that I mentioned in which it was stated hedging dynamics resulted in the fast decline.
    To me, it just doesn't make sense that the supply/demand balance would fall so fast. While the global economy is shrinking, that decline didn't just start a few weeks ago. And while supplies have been increasing, production didn't just pop hugely in the last few weeks. Besides, the US is the biggest demand in the globe and our economy grew over 3% last quarter. Something is not adding up.
    As an analogy, the rate on the 10 year Treasury had a big gap down under 2% two weeks ago during the market selloff. While rates have been drifting down due to the slowing global economy, the big move down was caused by massive short covering by funds who were on the wrong side of the trade.

  • marklibera marklibera Nov 5, 2014 10:28 AM Flag

    STagg, here is a direct copy from the release:

    Diluted income per common share $ 0.42 $ 0.27

    The first column is this quarter and the second is last year's.

    Stagg, you are letting your pride get in the way of learning. You have to understand that some of us have worked in these industries and know a thing or too about financial reporting having spent years reviewing a publicly traded REIT's SEC reports. That doesn't make us better investors as we all are susceptible to the same mistakes and biases that many make (i.e. falling in love with a stock, not being able to predict every trend), but it makes us a stickler for misrepresentations and failure to disclose all of the relevant facts.

    So you don't misunderstand my point again: You said NYMT's earnings increased 100%, and I said look at the per share amounts, which increased 55%. BTW, the 9 month figures per share are $1.06 versus 0.76 (a 40% increase).

  • Reply to

    P of Oil continues its trek to the $70 range.

    by rbgambler99 Nov 5, 2014 9:59 AM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 5, 2014 10:15 AM Flag

    Gambler, I would caution you on the statement that supply is higher than demand without any reference to figures. I think many of these stories get tweeted and re-tweeted and announced as proven fact.
    As for the gold miners, I think you are right, but the timing could be off. Japan has increased their currency printing. History shows that first there is a great deflation (that takes the price of gold down) but then a great inflation in which it soars.
    I can't believe that you and Sarge sold Apple.
    Without getting too political, one thing that was mentioned in last night's election coverage was that the new Congress could pass a bill to allow repatriation of cash at some lower tax rate. It may not help the economy that much (it didn't increase jobs that much the last time it was tried) but corporations like Apple will benefit and use that cash to increase dividends and stock buybacks.

  • marklibera marklibera Nov 5, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    Stagg, one can forgive you for not understanding the nuances in financial reporting language. "Attributable" does not mean "must pay out to common stockholders to satisfy REIT tax status."
    As for the per share amounts, the increase was to 42 cents from 27 cents. That's a 55% increase (42-27/27). A 55% increase on a per share basis is not the same as a 100% increase on an absolute basis. Feel free to disagree.

  • marklibera marklibera Nov 5, 2014 9:18 AM Flag

    stagg, as I have tried to explain over and over again, GAAP earnings do not necessarily equal taxable earnings. The REIT dividend requirement is based on taxable earnings (which many times are not disclosed in a GAAP earnings release -- sometimes there is a reconciliation in the actual SEC filing).

  • marklibera marklibera Nov 5, 2014 8:55 AM Flag

    Turbo, my general point was in response to Stagg's proclamation that NYMT's earnings had doubled. There was no cashflow statement included so one couldn't see how the cash was generated, as opposed to the GAAP earnings which as I said can be misunderstood. You expect mREITs to take gains when they have them, but you have to realize that you can't expect them to always have gains and to make up the difference in their earnings from profitable asset sales.
    As I have said, for mREITS, spread is an important metric because that is what they lever up to generate the cash to pay their divy. NYMT mentioned that their spread declined but that doesn't mean that the stock will decline.

  • marklibera by marklibera Nov 5, 2014 8:07 AM Flag

    This is overdue for a bounce.

  • Reply to

    Dog S#@# social media stocks up....

    by rbgambler99 Nov 4, 2014 11:30 AM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 4, 2014 8:02 PM Flag

    Stagg, the forward p/e on NEWM is 22. One has to be careful with historical metrics, because they are rear-mirror looking. NEWM is trading at $18 per share and I doubt that they "earned" $18 per share over the last year. Chances are that they had some one-time event that then got multiplied by 4 to come up with the "annual" "e" in the p/e.

  • marklibera marklibera Nov 4, 2014 7:50 PM Flag

    stagg, there are plenty of people who understand mREIT reporting better than me, but let me just point out a few things that one may want to consider when reviewing the financials of any mREIT. First of all, one has to take GAAP earnings with a grain of salt. GAAP earnings don't always mean "cash received" especially with investments in subordinated tranches. Second, look at the "Other Comprehensive Income" section of the financials and one may find what may be one-time items that aren't recurring, such as gains on dispositions of assets and mark-to-model gains in securities. Also note that mREITs tend to issue many spo's so the absolute gains in income might not be as large when looked at through the view of per share amounts. Remember that mREITs have to pay out most of their taxable earnings so if an mREIT reports large increases in GAAP earnings, maybe the question one should be asking is where is all of that income if the dividend is not also increasing by the same percentage. Rises in book value are a good thing but remember (1) those are past statistics, (2) the market can undo them and (3) for Level 3 assets (those that don't have comparable trades in the market) are based on management's models.

  • Reply to

    ETE

    by billbill722003 Oct 22, 2014 4:14 PM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 4, 2014 4:40 PM Flag

    cet, the exploration and production MLPs have been getting killed again today. But there have been articles in the WSJ that show the "break even" rate for drilling in many of the shale basins and it's much lower. However, the market doesnt want to hear that. There was also a piece that much of the current decline in oil prices was due to hedging by banks which forced selling in the futures markets.

  • Reply to

    NG prices

    by jberns2421 Nov 3, 2014 10:28 AM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 4, 2014 1:59 PM Flag

    jbc, remember it is just part of ATLS that is being purchased. The "spinco" will be separated from ATLS and still own the gp and IDRs for ARP and other nonmidstream assets that TRGP is not buying. But the Cohen's did hint at the merger announcement call that they are trying to do something with ARP to bring out the value.

  • Reply to

    Where will WMC trade??

    by wahoo99421 Nov 4, 2014 10:42 AM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 4, 2014 1:55 PM Flag

    I don't think you can compare WMC and RSO. From what I read on the RSO board, they hinted at a divy cut next year. I don't think you are going to hear that on WMC's call tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    SDLP acquires West Vela from SDRL

    by marklibera Nov 4, 2014 9:33 AM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 4, 2014 1:33 PM Flag

    Huff is DNR "Do Not Resuscitate?

  • Reply to

    Dog S#@# social media stocks up....

    by rbgambler99 Nov 4, 2014 11:30 AM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 4, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    This happens every so often and can be a buying opportunity. Many of the MLPs that I follow have started to report and their coverage ratios are coming in better than 1.0 plus they are hedged. But the market thinks oil and nat gas are going to zero. The problem is that you have to have cash available to take advantage of these dips and then your timing has to be right so as not to catch a falling knife. One possible solution is to buy long-dated calls instead of the stock in order to play the bounce. You don't get the dividend on the stock, but you conserve some cash.

  • Reply to

    SDLP acquires West Vela from SDRL

    by marklibera Nov 4, 2014 9:33 AM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 4, 2014 11:58 AM Flag

    Stagg, unfortunately the market doesn't see it that way. Financial engineering is great when it works, but in the case of SDRL and SDLP, it is not working. No one cares about the dividend at this time and there'sno telling when they will resume caring about it. That is the lesson I learned from my air lease stock experience. For me, it was silly to think that the market wouldn't associate SDRL's troubles with SDLP.

  • Reply to

    Looking at GS, BAC BA YHOO

    by madmax19471952 Nov 3, 2014 12:54 PM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 4, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    Bayman, I bought some BABA Nov options just to play the momentum. Looked like the early headlines on the earnings were negative, but they are changing and the stock (and options) are heading up. Unfortunately, my option gains on BABA and Yahoo are just going to be used to offset losses on the stinkers in my portfolio -- SDLP and HCLP. I have the Seinfield portfolio.

  • Reply to

    SDLP acquires West Vela from SDRL

    by marklibera Nov 4, 2014 9:33 AM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 4, 2014 10:11 AM Flag

    As I feared, SDLP going down with parent SDRL. Must be the algos just hitting the sell button for anything with Seadrill in its name. Wow. SDRL still not oversold by RSI as the level is 26. I wonder how much stock SDRL could buy if they used the dividend to buy stock instead.

    Vin will remember that we once owned stock in an air lease company, I think it was named Genesis, and they had the same problem -- the stock was yielding 20% but was trading at some huge discount to book value (I think it was 20% of book). And their debt was trading at 50%. The dividend yield wasn't protecting the stock price so there was a real debate about whether the company should buy back its stock or its debt or just keep paying the divy. I can't remember how it worked out, but I kept buying the stock all the way down to $2 to lower my basis. The company ended up being acquired by a competitor and if I hadn't averaged down, I would have lost money. As it was, I barely turned a profit.

  • As a result, SDLP is projecting a 3.5 to 4 cent increase in the 4thQ dividend. Let's see if this news gets this dog out of the dog house.

  • marklibera by marklibera Nov 4, 2014 8:58 AM Flag

    BABA earnings are out. Some headlines reading that they missed and some pointing out strong growth. Down in pre-market but let's see. I bought options on Friday to play. Will see how or if it effects Yahoo. Earnings for APL, TRGP/NGLS and HCLP. The Antero IPO comes today. Hope to get some shares.

  • Reply to

    ETE

    by billbill722003 Oct 22, 2014 4:14 PM
    marklibera marklibera Nov 3, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    cet, don't make the mistake of just buying the highest yielding MLP. The gp companies have slightly smaller yields, but their dividend growth and share price growth is much faster than their underlying MLPs Here are a few general partner companies to consider besides ETE: WGP which is the gp for WES, WMB which is the gp for WPZ and ACMP which are merging, PAGP which is the gp for PAA and TRGP which is the gp for NGLS which is merging with APL. ATLS is the gp of both APL and ARP and TRGP is acquiring that part of ATLS associated with APL. ATLS will spin off that part of the business that TRGP is not acquiring and that part is currently undervalued. ATLS says that that part -- will pay an annual distribution of $1.25, but it is only valued at $7 post-TRGP acquisition.

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