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Inergy, L.P. Message Board

marklibera 292 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 26, 2014 3:46 PM Member since: Aug 14, 2007
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  • marklibera marklibera Jul 24, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    You might want to take a look at the charts to see how MMP has compared to KMP over any period. I think the difference over 5 years is some 300% (based on Yahoo charts). That 4% difference in yield (which by the way is the difference today and not a difference in original cost basis if one had purchased 5 years ago) doesn't seem to make up for the difference in stock price performance.

  • Reply to

    Dividend declaration?

    by flyingman1x Sep 19, 2014 10:10 PM
    marklibera marklibera Sep 20, 2014 9:38 AM Flag

    I think "accounting tomfoolery" is a loaded mischaracterization. Yes the company ended up having more tax gains on swaps last year that necessitated the distribution of a larger dividend, but that is quite different from alleging that they are overstating their earnings. I would think that they spend extra attention in this area now as a result of last year.

  • marklibera marklibera Jul 7, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    That has to be the silliest post of all time. Why would CHK spend money that it doesn't have to buy CHKR shares that are trading for more than they are worth? You might think that they would do so in order to get the 23% "dividend" except that that dividend is not going to continue at the present rate forever. You say "that is what appears to be happening" but if CHK was buying any shares of CHKR under Securities Exchange Act rules they would have to report those purchases within 2 days. The fact is that CHK is carrying its 23.6 million units in CHKR at $174million (see their 10-k). Do the math.

  • marklibera by marklibera Aug 20, 2014 9:15 AM Flag

    Credit Suisse's research report after earnings placed a $44 target price. They say the base business plus the midstream unit is worth $38 with $6 of value for the Utica acreage. It will be interesting to see how their estimates for the Utica acreage compare whenever there are some sales. They value the liquids area at $3 per share and the oil window acreage at another $3 per share. They break down the acreage into low, mid, and high ranges. In the liquids rich, the midrange value for the Guernsey acres is $10k, $7k for Carrol county, and $6k for Stark. The oil window acreage is valued at $2k.
    Those of us who have been following this for a few years now will note that these values are quite a bit lower than what other firms predicted and what management had hoped for. Someone will be right and someone will be wrong. I guess that's what makes markets.

  • marklibera marklibera Sep 5, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    len, why is it the govt's job to create jobs?

  • Reply to

    Estimated book value end of last month: $15.29

    by kansaskeith Sep 23, 2014 4:23 PM
    marklibera marklibera Sep 23, 2014 4:43 PM Flag

    No, the divy is not an approximation of the GAAP earnings for the quarter. Last quarter, they paid 65 cents but the GAAP quarterly earnings were $1.68.

  • Reply to

    Raising DCF for 2014

    by polygeo200 Aug 5, 2014 11:16 PM
    marklibera marklibera Aug 6, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    Price estimates raised to $90.

  • Reply to

    Dividend going forward

    by brent_di_giorgio Jul 22, 2014 10:19 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 22, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    You are wrong. Never trust Yahoo Finance info. Look at the EPD website where they show that in fact the distribution was adjusted for the 2-1 stock split back in 2002.

  • Reply to

    Ten year treasury note dont lie

    by jackhiller Jul 8, 2014 10:27 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 8, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    Well it doesn't lie in the longer run, but it is prone to fake moves at the hands of the robot traders. The question is whether the next economic stats will push the yield below the lower support around 2.47%. That level has held, more or less, on 4 occasions going back to Jun 2013.

  • Reply to

    Jobs report is potentially very misleading

    by jackhiller Jul 3, 2014 10:03 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 3, 2014 11:31 AM Flag

    Jack, you are right and you didn't even mention the stats that showed full-time jobs fell while part-time jobs increased. Then there is the birth-death model adjustments which added 121k this month. But as I predicted, the 10 yr rate initially rose from this headline and ran smack into resistance at the 200 dma at 2.69%. We will see if the market really believes the jobs report indicates a strengthening economy. WMC is holding in there considering the headline news.

  • Reply to

    MLP's selling off hard

    by chuck11262004 Jul 30, 2014 1:03 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 31, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    That plus several went ex-date. Many have been on a tear, so some normal profit-taking is to be expected.

  • Reply to

    Fed speak to scare off the carry trade

    by jackhilr Aug 22, 2014 11:43 AM
    marklibera marklibera Aug 25, 2014 10:46 AM Flag

    Jack, I think you give the Fed too much credit. Past history has shown that they don't always know what they are doing. When they released the Fed minutes from 2007, it showed that many members didn't know the extent of the subprime mortgage problem. Their forecasts have been notoriously bad. The reasons for not raising rates are just canards. That doesn't mean that they won't keep rates low, but it shows their reasons are just smoke screens.
    First, back in 2007, the debt was already huge (over 10T) and that didn't stop the Fed from raising rates to 5 1/4%. Consumer debt levels were at historic highs back then too and we were running $400b deficits because of the wars. Second, most of the debt is in the mid-range maturity of 5-10 years. Only 1.8T is in bills. While raising rates would increase debt service, the greater risk is if inflationary expectations were to resurface and cause longer rates to rise. In fact, as long as the Fed keeps rates ultra low, the politicians don't have to make any tough choices on spending or taxes and they know it.. Long rates don't seem to be increasing anywhere in the world even though deficits are exploding, so there is a disconnect at this point between debt levels and interest rates, and that's because of deflationary pressures. Finally, as you said, the Fed can't do anything to solve the demographic and structural problems. Their remedy -- low rates -- only causes higher asset prices and more malinvestment and more debt. They complain about high leverage, but they never raise margin rates, something that is in their control.

  • Reply to

    Looking for a dividend increase...

    by mrock3754 Aug 6, 2014 12:35 PM
    marklibera marklibera Aug 14, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    Dont' know. NYMT is not like other mREITs where they give you the core earnings which can be used to approximate the dividend. Because of all of the securitizations and CLOs, it is hard to see how much regular cash they are generating. I could be wrong but because they generate a lot of gains, I would think that they would continue with the regular dividend level and pay out as a special dividend at year-end if required to meet the REIT test.

  • Reply to

    Forget AWLCF, SDRL, UAN....

    by rbgambler99 Sep 10, 2014 3:48 PM
    marklibera marklibera Sep 11, 2014 10:38 AM Flag

    Gambler, if you are expecting a correction, why do you think that the momentum stocks like Yhoo, aapl and BABA are going to get spared? In a correction, the stocks that have risen the most, tend to get hit hardest. Granted there may be one last push up before the switch flips (if it does in fact flip).

  • Reply to

    O/T Out of YHOO

    by huffdaland Sep 17, 2014 10:19 AM
    marklibera marklibera Sep 17, 2014 1:24 PM Flag

    There's a Barrons article with the math of the sum of the parts on Yahoo. Regular business plus their cash and Yahoo Japan is worth $16 plus $6 for the BABA shares net of taxes that they are selling in the IPO =$22. They will still own BABA shares worth between $27-30b (at $70-80 per Baba share) = $27 per yahoo share before taxes which could be as much as 35%. So that's $49 total. The article is about tax-efficient waysfor yahoo to spin off the BABA shares like Liberty Media has done for some of their interests.
    So the regular business (minus the cash, BABA and Japan) is valued at $8 and has EBITDA at 772mm, meaning it is selling at about 10 times EBITDA. Competitor AOL trades at over 7 times.
    Even if BABA shares go to $100, that would only be another $7+ in yahoo value (before taxes). Based on that, Gambler, your hopes are a little high. But enjoy the ride. Just remember "pigs get fed, and hogs get slaughtered."

  • marklibera marklibera Sep 17, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    When considering govt statistics, it is always helpful to remember those great words from Mark Twain: "there are statistics, damn statistics and lies."

    On the CPI, it's not so much the products and services that are captured, but the "adjustments" in the name of "product quality improvement" that are factored in keep the reported prices down.

    Finally, there is a difference between disinflation and deflation. As long as the stock market stays up, there is no way the Fed reconsiders the taper decision.

  • Reply to

    Still waiting for the run up!

    by a0002604 Sep 18, 2014 12:14 PM
    marklibera marklibera Sep 18, 2014 12:40 PM Flag

    Dividend should be declared in the next couple of days. I bet after today's close.

  • Reply to

    SFL is at $17.77

    by madmax19471952 Sep 22, 2014 1:40 PM
    marklibera marklibera Sep 22, 2014 2:04 PM Flag

    I think it is too early to buy anything that is selling off. SFL broke its 50 dma and its 100. It may be getting painted with the same broad brush as its sisters, SDRL and NADL, but there's no need to try to be a hero and catch a falling knife. Even temporary oversold conditions can become even more oversold.

  • marklibera marklibera Sep 23, 2014 4:58 PM Flag

    I doubt it. The whole market is weak and particularly e&p's because of the weakness in oil. They will have proceeds of $162mm which is $3.375 per share and they still own their interest in UEO. One downside is that they could have a sizeable tax gain which they won't be able to offset with a 1031 exchange unless they buy an interest in another midstream unit. Also, just to spite you, they will probably award bonuses based on this sale and they we will have to listen to you complain again for 3 more years.

  • Reply to

    Raising the divi

    by jackhilr Sep 23, 2014 4:17 PM
    marklibera marklibera Sep 23, 2014 4:48 PM Flag

    Jack, the 10 year continues to fall after having run smack into resistance last week at the 200 dma. It is now right about where it was at the end of Q2 and heading south.

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