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Inergy, L.P. Message Board

marklibera 285 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 20, 2014 9:54 AM Member since: Aug 14, 2007
  • Reply to

    sdt is move higher tomorrow

    by rajoilprasad Jul 31, 2014 5:19 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 31, 2014 5:28 PM Flag

    No that's the price they received. Production was down from 62 to 53 on a volume basis (that's 15%) and it wasn't the result of some weather excuse. The next distribution is going to 25 cents if you assume an 11% production reduction (I'm not included any price impact -- they 10 cents more for gas this last quarter). If it is valued at a 25% yield, the units will trade at $4.

  • Reply to

    HIgher payout next period?

    by danageorge21 Jun 9, 2014 8:41 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 31, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    Well there you have it. So much for falling for the "weather" excuse. 11% reduction in production (on an MBOE basis) despite no "weather" problems. I was wrong about the sub units converting for this distribution. They convert for the next distribution and will reduce it further.

  • marklibera by marklibera Jul 31, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    I made a mistake on the sub units. They don't convert until the next distribution. That will take the next one below 26 cents. This is going lower.

  • Reply to

    TVIX and TZA up big today!!

    by rbgambler99 Jul 31, 2014 2:42 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 31, 2014 3:29 PM Flag

    Gambler, there was always risk that we would get a selloff. The difficulty has been trying to predict the size or when support would hold. In previous times, by the time it was clear that we had a selloff, it was almost already over. Makes it hard to put an inverse ETF position on because the time decay eats you. I agree with you on rates. We have been having these little spikes on good economic news, then we get some soft news. I'm looking to add some WMC and more closed end muni funds (thankfully I didn't bet on a GDP miss) and some MLPs. Fall will be a different story as the funds might lock in some year-end profits, plus QE will be over.

  • Reply to

    MLP's selling off hard

    by chuck11262004 Jul 30, 2014 1:03 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 31, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    That plus several went ex-date. Many have been on a tear, so some normal profit-taking is to be expected.

  • Reply to

    RRD pay 6% divi I am liking it

    by madmax19471952 Jul 30, 2014 6:40 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 31, 2014 1:49 PM Flag

    Sarge, I didn't say that. I said you need to look further into the trends of the business. If their net income is declining and their margins shrinking, then unless there is some temporary reason to explain it, you have to be cautious. As I remember, Donnelly was in the printing business (telephone books, financial printing) when much is going digital. Sometimes businesses transition from one type to the next generation. The trick is seeing if there is such a plan or is the company eating itself.

  • Reply to

    Breaking bad

    by marklibera Jul 31, 2014 10:00 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 31, 2014 12:16 PM Flag

    See what happens when you chase overbought stocks like AAPL? They are not immune to selloffs, and in fact, since they are overowned by most funds, end up getting sold for liquidity. Now if I could only convince my wife of the merits of watching RSI levels.

  • Reply to

    Breaking bad

    by marklibera Jul 31, 2014 10:00 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 31, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    Keebon, there's so much red on my screen, I didn't see that. Many MLPs have some nice corrections. MMP is down 8 points from its high. EQM is down 16. As always, mind the RSI's before you leap.

  • Reply to

    Breaking bad

    by marklibera Jul 31, 2014 10:00 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 31, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    Stagg, I'm just teasing. See my post on the AMNB board. While a selloff or correction seems bad because our account values go down, it does produce some opportunities to buy.

  • Reply to

    IS THIS A WARNING SIGN...???

    by staggman99 Jul 31, 2014 10:15 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 31, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    Stagg, you make many good observations. There are plenty of reasons why the market is selling off, but let's separate out the economic fundamentals from market/company reasons. First, throughout this advance, the S&P has stayed in an uptrend channel. Whenever it gets to the top of the channel, it has corrected down to the midpoint represented by the 50 dma. When it has breached the 50 dma, it has declined to the bottom of the channel, but for the most part has stayed in the channel. The range of the channel has been consistently about 100 points or so. I have not looked at the other indices and if they are breaking down, the S&P may follow. Many articles have compared the charts of the high yield bond index to the S&P and proffer that the decline in high yield leads to a correction in the S&p.
    As for individual stocks, many were overextended and the good earnings were already priced in, so pullbacks are normal. Here again is where chart analysis could help. I only wish I was better at it. The question is whether these pullbacks damage the technicals. The weakness with technical analysis is that it doesn't tell you which supports absolutely positively will hold, only where the supports are.
    As for the economy, you are correct that the economy is not as strong as a 4% GDP or 6.5% unemployment number may suggest. There are many structural problems that still exist. There have been many articles about some of the issues (for example subprime car loans and covenant light loans) that were prevalent at the last crisis, but we went a couple of years before those problems flushed through the banking sector and the economy and caused a market plunge. For now, the market is not the economy, and corporations are adept at cost-cutting, debt refinancing, and buying back stock. Money flow is still chasing stocks.
    To me, the big question is going to be how the market reacts to the end of QE and the first rate increase whenever that comes.

  • Reply to

    Breaking bad

    by marklibera Jul 31, 2014 10:00 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 31, 2014 10:42 AM Flag

    William, my crayon draws to S&P 1915/1925 which would still be within the uptrend channel.

  • Reply to

    Friendly advice (and smarter)

    by a0002604 Jul 31, 2014 12:03 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 31, 2014 10:16 AM Flag

    Before you jump to the conclusion that the market thinks the Fed is going to raise rates or that the 10 yr rate is blasting off, lets see what actually happens to the 10 yr. After spiking LAST May, it has been in a range between 2.45% and 3% (actually 2.8% seems to be the upper limit). One, first estimate of GDP does not make a series of strong economic numbers. But I agree, that there may be a better entry point on WMC (but don't be ridiculous about $10).

  • Reply to

    Friendly advice

    by jackhiller Jul 30, 2014 9:40 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 31, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    Wrong Ray. There won't be a cut in MTGE's dividend. The number to look at is not the taxable income number, but the 72 cent spread and dollar roll income. They can and will continue to pay 65 cents.
    MTGE is up just a bit, but I expect it to fad like AGNC did yesterday. But at some point, this rise in 10 yr rates is going to peak and may make for a better entry point.

  • marklibera by marklibera Jul 31, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    Well Stagg did it again. Lots of things breaking down. We won't know yet if this is the start of the much anticipated large overdue correction or if this is just another mild pullback that tests the bottom of the trend channel.

  • Reply to

    RRD pay 6% divi I am liking it

    by madmax19471952 Jul 30, 2014 6:40 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 31, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    Sarge, this is where you have to be careful with some high yield stocks. Some companies without any growth just start paying out more and more of their cashflow. In essence, they become almost self-liquidating. Sometimes they start issuing more and more debt so that they can continue to pay the dividend. You find this in companies whose business is in decline from new competition or new technology. Ptiney Bowes comes to mind. Usually they end up cutting their divies, sometimes to pursue new growth strategies which ends up being good for the stock, but usually after a decline. Bottomline, you have to believe in the business to want to own part of the business.

  • Reply to

    OT: Iron Mountain

    by marklibera Jul 30, 2014 1:16 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 31, 2014 9:40 AM Flag

    doneby, as you may know from my postings, I try to study charts to find patterns. While they are sometimes hard to find and sometimes contradictory, they seem to be more reliable than other metrics. The problem with charts is that correlation doesn't mean causation, or in other words, is the chart a predictor or anticipator, or is it a backward reaction to fundamental news.
    Looking at the S&P chart for the last year, it is in an upward trend channel of approximately 125 points in range from top of the channel to bottom. Looks the same for the 2 yr period. The index has stayed in this channel. Sometimes it has gone sideways for a while and then breaks to a higher level, but still within the same channel.
    You have heard all of the reasons for why a correction is probable. But with everyone expecting one, it doesn't come. The charts show that there is still room to move up to the top of the trendline.
    I continue to look for opportunities without chasing things that have already moved up, but I'll also sell some things if I have a profit.

  • Reply to

    next dividend

    by rajoilprasad Jul 28, 2014 12:36 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 30, 2014 6:20 PM Flag

    The components of the distribution are production, price of commodity and number of units. Production has been in decline and there are no new wells. Nat gas prices declined from the winter spike. The number of units that will share the distribution will increase because of the end of the subordination period. This should be no surprise as it has been disclosed. But one never knows whether the market has already factored it in or whether some yield chasing algorithm thinks the distribution is fixed.

  • Reply to

    ot: Sarge, At&T

    by bayman667 Jul 29, 2014 8:49 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 30, 2014 1:28 PM Flag

    Frontier and Windstream used to pay high yields and many chased them because of that. I think they both ended up cutting their dividends, which is a lesson why it is important to research the sustainability of the business line that produces the income that pays the dividend. On the other hand, these rural carriers used to be in areas without much access to wireless, cable and satellite. Don't know if that is still true.
    On a separate note, I looked at AMT a few months back (a REIT for cell towers) after a Barron's article. Still going up. Wished I bought some.

  • Reply to

    Friendly advice

    by jackhiller Jul 30, 2014 9:40 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 30, 2014 1:20 PM Flag

    Ok, then watch MTGE when it reports tonight. The point was not to compare exactly similar mREITs, but to compare the market reaction to the stock price after a better than expected quarter. BTW, AGNC bought shares in a bunch of mREITs, so they are not exactly a pure-play agency mREIT either.

  • marklibera by marklibera Jul 30, 2014 1:16 PM Flag

    Saw an item on Iron Mountain (IRM) the big file storage company. They are converting to a REIT and will announce their dividend schedule with today's earnings. They have a presentation on their website with the metrics of all the different REIT sectors. Basically, they are trading at 11 times AFFO and most of the REITs trade at higher multiples. Self-storage REITS trade at 22 times AFFO. They may pay a dividend of a bit over $2 per year. At a 4% yield, that would equate to $50. All the REIT funds would likely add it. The stock popped at the end of June and is now no longer overbought. Could see some appreciation when the funds start buying it.

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