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Inergy, L.P. Message Board

marklibera 242 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 30 minutes ago Member since: Aug 14, 2007
  • Reply to

    next dividend

    by rajoilprasad Jul 28, 2014 12:36 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 28, 2014 4:26 PM Flag

    should be out tonight. I bet 32 cents.

  • marklibera marklibera Jul 27, 2014 9:16 PM Flag

    The pattern on CHKR has been to begin a "dividend run" some 4-6 weeks before the announcement (next due in mid Aug). It is a little like musical chairs as most quarters the stock has fallen back after the ex-date. For the most part, the "traders" are computer programs. So I don't think this means that there is some new good news but just the normal quarterly pattern. I will note that back in the spring many were proclaiming that the spike in nat gas prices would hold (and propel CHKR upward) but I read that nat gas is back down under $4, but the rises are newsworthy and the decreases ignored.
    Also, it was pointed out previously by another poster that CHKR is short oil, and based on my reading of their derivatives in their SEC reports, I believe the same thing. Most investors in these royalty trusts probably think royalty trust means "long oil" so they buy when oil prices go up. The subordinated distribution protects the distribution so they don't even bother to read the 10-Q that discloses the loss.
    SDT was due to report their next distribution, the first one without their subordinated level. It should be significantly below what their last distribution was. Yet that stock was up last week. The market is efficient in the long run, but in the short run, investors don't always appreciate the weakness in their investments.

  • Reply to


    by staggman99 Jul 23, 2014 10:31 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 25, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    I own the ATLS/ARP/APL group, EPB and ETE. But full disclosure for those that hate to deal with K-1's, if you own ATLS, you have to report its holdings in APL, ARP and ArcLogistics and another entity separately, even if you also own positions in ARP and APL. So for my positions in ATLS, ARP and APL, I have to report 7 K-1's.
    Similarly if you own ETE, you have to report separately its ownership in ETP, RGP, and SXL.
    Is it worth it? I have over a triple in ETE, a double in each of APL and ATLS and the yield on cost basis is in double digits for each.

  • Reply to


    by bacon2bacon Jul 25, 2014 11:13 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 25, 2014 1:18 PM Flag

    Now if they could only get rid of Zacks. TheStreet, Wall St Cheat Street and Motley fool. but then they would probably charge us.

  • marklibera marklibera Jul 25, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    Why is the price appreciation part unjustified? With MLPs, the market pays for distribution growth. That's why the MLPs with the higher yields but no growth do not have much price appreciation while those with higher growth/lower yields have the best returns. You may not think it is justified, but it is what the market thinks that counts. An example of this is EPB. When KM announced that their distribution would be flat back in March, the market took 10 points off of the stock.

  • Reply to


    by edwardkeefej Jul 25, 2014 7:48 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 25, 2014 10:16 AM Flag

    Sarge, I have owned the entire Atlas complex -- ARP, APL and ATLS, but they have lagged their competitors. There is certainly potential to catch up to the rest of the sector if they can execute. Either they execute or someone will come along who can bring about that execution. Seems like a no lose situation, but you can wait for a long time for either the better execution or a buyer to materialize, and there is no guarantee that either will happen. The downside is that the Cohen's are buyers instead of sellers and they overpay for acquisitions which keep them from executing (some said they overpaid for some of their acquisitions at APL).
    Let's see how the market reacts to yesterday's distribution increase at ATLS.
    Most of us have a limited amount of funds so these choices can get difficult especially when you see some stocks increasing at good rates while others remain stagnant waiting for a catalyst..

  • Reply to

    Interesting IDR deal

    by keebon Jul 24, 2014 8:52 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 25, 2014 10:02 AM Flag

    Keebon, I don't follow the marine MLPs, maybe because of my past bad experience with dry-bulks. I note that CPLP has had a nice chart over the last 2 years. As for the IDR deal, you can bet that the deal is to benefit the general partner but that doesn't mean that the MLP won't also benefit in the short term. The GP is going to push to get to that high IDR level which is at a quarterly distribution of 29 cents, which is some 25% higher than their current rate. The questions are how long does it take to get there and how does that compare to the distribution growth at other marine MLPs.

  • marklibera marklibera Jul 25, 2014 9:19 AM Flag

    Well of course they are going to pay the distribution because that's what the subordination level is all about. As long as they delay finishing the amount of wells that they were supposed to drill, the subordination level stays in place. But keeping the sub level in place means that CHK continues to get a zero distribution on its subordinated units (because the old wells don't earn enough to pay the subs) which can't be what they planned when they created this trust. At some point, CHK is going to want to get some distribution, but at current production levels, they are only going to get a distribution if they finish the wells and convert to common units. Once their sub units are converted, then there are more total units and the per unit distribution amount will be less (because the new wells are not making up for the decreasing production on the old wells). Interestingly, CHK is carrying these units at a $7 value (you can find this in CHK's 10-k), but the market doesn't seem to realize this.
    A possible comparison is to watch SDT. This next quarter for SDT will be the first in which its subordination level ends. They should announce their distribution today. Last quarter, they paid 42 cents on 21mm units, but will have 28 mm units to pay this quarter. If my math is correct, their distribution should be reduced to 31 cents. Let's see how the market reacts to this reduction. Maybe it's priced in.

  • Reply to


    by edwardkeefej Jul 25, 2014 7:48 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 25, 2014 8:32 AM Flag

    Ed, ATLS finally resumed some distribution growth, but the increases at APL and ARP were disappointing. If ATLS was priced like the premier GPs like WGP, TRGP, ETE and WMB (i.e. sub 3% yields) it would trade over $70. I understand they had to rebuild coverage at both APL and ARP. Cooperman keeps pounding the table on ARP but it is still yielding over 11% while every other e&p MLP is heading toward 8%. Meanwhile if APL traded like MWE, it would be $50 instead of $36. One analyst on last quarter's APL call said their plants in the Permian were worth as much as the whole company. I think the Cohen's have to do something. They should be a seller instead of a buyer. I'm holding because I think a deal comes.
    Meanwhile my switch of some APL for MMP resulted in a 16 point or 30% gain.

  • Reply to

    Back on a growth path

    by bosox_pats Jul 24, 2014 9:06 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 25, 2014 8:15 AM Flag

    Just imagine if this could be priced like some of the premier GP's (like TRGP, WGP, ETE, and WMB) with sub 3% yields.

  • Reply to

    ETP increases dist. MLP sector just rolling along.

    by bobdbeck Jul 24, 2014 12:14 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 24, 2014 5:31 PM Flag

    Bob, you may want to borrow Stagg's Total Return calculator to compare ETE versus ETP. Or just look at the charts. My cost on ETE is around $17 (a mere triple) while ETP is up about 30-40%. I think we bought around the same time (I bought ETE and ETP around the same time, but sold all of the ETP and held some ETE). My yield on original cost is now around 8% while the yield on your cost of ETP is about the same.

    At the time I bought ETE, the yield difference between it and ETP was about 4%. Over 5 years, that's 20%, but ETE has outperformed on share price by some 300%.

  • Reply to


    by helmetguru123 Jul 24, 2014 11:20 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 24, 2014 2:45 PM Flag

    Went to Oahu and stayed on the North Shore. great time. Tried to learn how to surf.

  • Reply to


    by helmetguru123 Jul 24, 2014 11:20 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 24, 2014 1:41 PM Flag

    Sarge, MPW and PBT are apples and oranges. I don't think you can really compare the two as they are in different sectors. PBT is a royalty trust so depletion is an issue. Some of the old royatly trusts have dates or other triggers when they terminate. it's distributions tend to fluctuate with the price of the commodity, which is good when global strife juices the price of oil. On the other hand, MPW can grow its dividend by acquiring more properties and by the increases in rents. I'm surprised the MPW hasn't rebounded more, but that may be because investors had shifted into more cyclical names like hotel and industrial REITs where a stronger economy may help. With evidence that the economy could slow, investors could shift back.

  • Reply to

    ETP increases dist. MLP sector just rolling along.

    by bobdbeck Jul 24, 2014 12:14 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 24, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    Bob, the MLP announcements are rolling in. Here are some:
    APL raised 1 cent.
    ETE raised 2 cents.
    CMLP flat.

    Huge percentage increases at WGP, TRGP, PAGP and MMP.
    Just to give an idea of the leverage associated with GPs. ETP's increase was 2 cents on a 93 cent base, while its gp, ETE raised 2 cents on a 36 cent base.

  • marklibera marklibera Jul 24, 2014 9:47 AM Flag

    The previous posts that you mention that talked about "Capital Losses" were basically an attempt to determine what an investor's Total Return was if they had purchased the stock at the IPO. They tried to measure the dividends received over this time against the appreciation/depreciation in the stock price (i.e. capital gain or capital loss).

  • marklibera marklibera Jul 24, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    You might want to take a look at the charts to see how MMP has compared to KMP over any period. I think the difference over 5 years is some 300% (based on Yahoo charts). That 4% difference in yield (which by the way is the difference today and not a difference in original cost basis if one had purchased 5 years ago) doesn't seem to make up for the difference in stock price performance.

  • marklibera marklibera Jul 24, 2014 8:55 AM Flag

    The better run MLPs are able to put together business plans that lead to distribution increases which lead to stock price increases. So far CMLP has not been able to deliver on the distribution increases. They just announced another flat quarter of no increase.

  • Reply to


    by jbcguy Jul 23, 2014 3:44 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 24, 2014 8:52 AM Flag

    The transaction had an effective date of April 1, so those number should be included in the 2nd quarter.

  • Reply to

    Are WE all happy

    by bobdbeck Jul 23, 2014 11:58 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 23, 2014 1:08 PM Flag

    bob, I finally followed you and bought some for my wife yesterday before the close.

  • Reply to

    Dividend going forward

    by brent_di_giorgio Jul 22, 2014 10:19 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 22, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    You are wrong. Never trust Yahoo Finance info. Look at the EPD website where they show that in fact the distribution was adjusted for the 2-1 stock split back in 2002.

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