My mistake, but still there's quite a difference between the 3 I mentioned unless the market has figured out what the future distributions are really going to be.
So let me get this straight. All of these posts about trading Apple options combined with watching the technicals was about 4 options and a couple of hundred bucks? That's like posting about my money market dividend for the month. Funny how the lack of magnitude of the trade was omitted until the position went the wrong way. Somehow the 17% or 60% or whatever was "in the wood" doesn't sound so impressive when put in dollar terms.
Huff, since DH has me on ignore, maybe you can ask him if he still owns his CHK preferred since he has mentioned CHK twice in the last 2 days. DH lectured Keebon about how he was very negative on nat gas since it was $7-9, but he also told Vin not to worry about prices with income stocks, so it may be instructive to see which of his own advice he followed.
The airlines have been doing well and someone mentioned them so I thought I would take a look at the charts. I looked at the chart of Southwest (LUV) and Delta (DAL). LUV is down 10 points from it's midwinter highs and the chart is down. It is bouncing after having hit a low in July. Delta has peaked 5 times at or around 48 and went down under 40 in early July before rebounding to 45. On a longer term chart, it looks like it is rolling over. I am often dead wrong especially when it comes to trying to read what the charts are saying. but these don't look like stocks that are merely "correcting." With oil going lower, one would think that the airlines will bounce, but I would watch those bounces to see if the stocks resume their upward trends. Even though the fundamentals are much better in the sector, these stocks are up a lot. LUV is a 9 bagger since late 2012 and DAL is a 5 bagger.
As others have discussed, the market seems to have been led by a smaller and smaller number of names and sectors. You wonder if people are going to pile into the sectors that have outperformed and thus cause a top.
I have no positions in either, but my brother-in-law did buy LUV at $5.
But if we get to the point that they need that 75mm to pay the next 6 months of distributions, it is not going to matter as the market would surely see that the distribution was going to get cut in month 7.
With such a glowing outlook on Apple, one has to wonder why DH ever sold any share of it and why he bothers to play options before earnings season. If Apple truly is the stock to never sell, then why ever sell since by definition he has said there are no better alternatives. The usual defense is that owning one stock doesn't provide diversification or it doesn't provide enough income, but if all the other choices are worse, then by diversifying, aren't you lowering your potential return.
Further, I didn't realize that IBM was in the smartphone business, but that's DH for you. He worked at IBM (and did he mention that he knows Tim Cook) so he knows everything about everything. One wonders why he bothers to hang around on these boards. But I'm forgetting that it is to teach all of us who didn't work at IBM how dumb we are.
Funny the guy who doesn't care about paper gains and losses or wealth building, spends an awful lot of posts telling everyone about every profit he books and how his losses don't matter. If he didn't care so much about reporting the daily results, then why doesn't he just keep this personal info to himself. The people who are most full of themselves don't seem to realize it.
Looks like this is flushing out here. Not recommending trying to find a bottom because even when this is oversold as it has been since June, it has kept going in a straight 45 degree line down. But today's action looks like either someone is getting a margin call or liquidating. Of course, with the earnings report weeks away, who knows what other bad news is lurking.
Huff, to be clear, my post last night was not directed at you (or Sarge) You often share your option trading acumen with the board and your posts are not boastful in the least. When something doesn't work out, you usually admit it. Besides, you usually spell out the risk/reward for your trades. On the rare occurrence that one of your trades doesn't work out, you don't have to tell us how the rest of your portfolio is doing or how much wealth you have or how you are an expert in international finance who knows Tim Cook.
Sorry you were offended, but I find it a little strange that you felt personally attacked, yet when others have personally attacked me, your outrage was absent.
I'm looking at Europe and Japan. I've owned a Wisdom Tree ETF for Europe and am trying to find a fund for Japan. Many big dividend companies there, but not high-yield ones.
Sarge, I want to clear the air with you on my post on the sfl board on aapl. The post was not meant to be directed at you (or Huff.) You have expressed your opinion on aapl and I have often times posted some different views just for you to consider. For the record, I own a small amount so it is not about me being short or bearish on aapl. You clearly have had several winners lately so I am not trying to lecture you on what you are doing.
Many of us will "bet" on a stock and sometimes it doesn't work out and we have to eat crow. We all have had to do it.
And like clockwork, here is the post from DH with the update on his account status and the mention of one of his stocks that is doing well. The guy can never admit that a call didn't go his way without trying to save face with something off topic.
Hey, we all get some wrong, and usually when we do, we admit it and try to recognize what we didn't see.
The fact is that DH made a very public call on Apple before their earnings and he got it wrong at least for the reaction to the earnings.
I'm sure if Apple finishes flat or even up today, DH will be back with another post on how he got it right again (and how his account is back up to highs).
Vin, I sold some VNR common a while back. I didn't have much. We won't know until later on whether buying anything in energy right now was the right thing to do. Some on this board were quick to pronounce that the selloff in oil was over when prices had bounced in the spring when the refineries came back on line for the driving season. Everyone has an opinion on what the supply and demand dynamics will be.
But to me, it seems a bit early to be a contrarian in this sector even if you are buying preferreds. We know that selloffs in the weaker names usually impact the stronger names, whether this is a result of people selling the stronger liquid names to meet margin calls or the workings of all of the funds in this sector. good luck.
I've been trying to craft a response to a couple of posts including one of yours.
As for ETE, it has caught up with some of the other MLPs. Goes to show you that when a sector is being sold off, even the best names get sold. ETE, EPD, PAA and MMP are usually known as the best names in MLPs, but they are getting hit. Even as I posted often about various MLPs, I had a nagging feeling that the MLP outperformance was going to come to an end. There was just too many IPOs and new funds and ETFs in the space, and history shows that whenever that happens, that is a sure sign that a top could be near. Luckily, I sold several of my MLPs at the beginning of the year, although I would have been better if I had waited for the bounce. Now, for the ones that I still hold comes the "Clash" decision: should I stay or should I go.
Gambler, I love your posts. Unlike some of the Alfred E. Newman's, I've seen that investing can be difficult as a bull market gets old.
I am by no means an expert on market history, but one theme that seems to occur throughout most bull markets is that people chase stocks (in both directions). People will chase income stocks because they need income when other alternatives are slim, and Wall Street will accommodate the chasers with all sorts of products. People will also chase stocks that are going down because the talking heads have beaten into our heads the silly "blood in the streets" argument. If everyone is a contrarian investor, then by definition, there are no contrarians. There is an old saying that when everyone owns a stock or sector, there is no one left to buy it.
Right now may be one of the most difficult times for investors. The choice seems to be to chase sectors that have already put in a good performance or to try to time the bottom on some sectors that are going down and may have further to fall. I don't have the answers, but I do know that at the last market tops, there was hardly anyone saying that the top was in. Of course, it doesn't help that throughout this bull market, there have been several people saying the market was going to crash. Like with anything, no one bats 1000.
Fun fact, I actually gave a deposition in the securities fraud case against CHK. They ended up winning that case which goes to show you how hard it is to win a securities fraud case.
More importantly, as I recall, DH used to own the CHK convertible preferred and it would be instructive to know if he bailed out on it and when.
I'm a bit amused that DH takes some of these articles so seriously. The "article" was from TheStreet and everyone knows they aren't trying to predict, project or report anything. They are just trying to get clicks from people like us.
Just saw the headline and the afterhours trade. What a shame! Of course, tomorrow it could be up.
Can't wait to see the explanations of what happened.
Wow, 35 to 75 in Feb, then corrected down to 50, then another run to 75 (in 3 months) and now has given back 20 points in the last month. Looks like it may have found support and may be ready for another run. I know this sector has been all the rage.