Stagg, we already determined that Total Returns are subjective to when you pick the date to measure it from. How is that Total Return data for ARLP or for SDRL or AWLCF working? Earlier you said my opinions were not ok, but I guess you mean only your opinions are worthy of consideration because they are accompanied with a bunch of old, stale data..
Stagg said he didn't buy SWFT, but I found his post (he probably conveniently forgot about it). There are several other posts from the December to January timeframe when the board was discussing how far oil would drop and which stocks could benefit from that drop. Stagg mentioned SWFT several times. He also mentioned ARLP again during that time frame. Here is the excerpt:
I feel it is a no brainer than transportation stocks will benefit from lower fuel prices, even if they hedge price their fuel it is always just a percentage of their est. use...
There are a lot of different ways to play the lower fuel prices but, at this time, I like XTN and SWIFT...XTN is a transportation ETF and SWIFT is a trucking company that seems to be on very strong come back trail...that said,
Maybe Stagg never bought SWFT or ARLP, but it seems to me that if you discuss a stock and pump it like Stagg did, but then change your mind, you have a responsibility to tell everyone that you changed your mind.
Once again, the record speaks.
Stagg, you say you "never lied to anybody" but here you are on this board saying that I never post any research or data or disclose my holdings when I have pointed to several instances when I have. That's a lie that you continue to repeat. Just because you keep repeating it, does not mean it is true.
It may not be the useless research or stale data that you post, but I often share what I read when I find that the board would find it useful. Plus, it's not my job to do research for the board or share my personal stats with anyone.
Kbon, maybe its just the ones that Stagg is pumping. I pulled the 18 month charts of PSEC, TICC, KCAP and HTGC. TICC went from $8.8 to $7.18; PSEC went from $9.8 to $7.74; KCAP from $7.80 to 6.18 and HTGC from $15.50 to 12.80. The point is that many are done although PSEC may have declined more. Selection does matter, not just picking the ones with the highest yield. Obviously, there are dozens of BDCs and this is not a BDC board, but the ones that seem to be the most discussed here, have not done well.
Stagg, another lie. I gave everyone TEGP and IRM. I mentioned PSEC only because Gambler mentioned it, but you felt you needed to butt in. If you had listened to me and others on SDRL you would have saved a bunch. Now I will have to find the post on SWFT which you were pumping. After pumping SwFT and ARLP, you never came back and told the board that you didn't buy them. I asked you to stop posting about LIINE because you had nothing to contribute other than you told everyone to sell it. Just more blather and little additional facts to benefit those who may still own it (which I don't, having sold LNCO when oil started turning down).
Remember Stagg, my post was in response to repeated lies by you about what I post about.
"There is no direct correlation between yield and risk." Well maybe not 1 to 1 correlation, but this statement shows that the poster does not know how to measure risk. Plenty of articles show that high yield stocks have total returns less than lower yielding stocks. Lets just look at two examples. SDRL had a high yield and it's return has not been too good. A stock that drops from 4o to below 15 would fall in the high risk category. On the other hand, WMC's yield is much higher than most of comparable mREITs and would probably be considered at the "extreme" end, yet it is doing ok when measured against others.
Further, the poster Factoids has written some very good articles comparing MLPs bond ratings with their distributions and required rates of return, demonstrating that link between yield and risk.
kee, TICC has had a nice bounce, but it is approaching RSI 70 and other resistance levels. I have seen this movie before with PSEC and KCAP and a few other BDCs that have been in downtrends. Maybe people were buying TICC to capture the divy and will book their gain and bail once they capture the divy.
Glad it worked out for you Helmet. (Contrary to some posters who like to lie, I do give compliments to posters). Averaging down can work out for a stock that is in a general uptrend and is just correcting or digesting its gains. Looks like TCAP is in that kind of uptrend. It's when a stock is in a downtrend (like when SDRL was going down and Stagg was arguing with everyone how it still had good color) that you have to be careful about averaging down to avoid throwing good money after bad. Most stocks that suffer a decline do find a bottom eventually unless there is really something fundamentally wrong with their business.
Now if you can only tell me when it's time to average down on HTGC for its turn.
stagg, you are a liar. First, on PSEC, I turned negative on it over a year ago wh.en I sold it around $11. My comment was directed at Gambler, whose skin is a little thicker than yours and who doesn't need to have his ego continuously stroked. Gambler can dish it out and take a negative comment about one of his picks (unlike you who fought me when I turned negative on PSEC -- don't make me pull out the history of your posts).
Second, I already established that you only mention the stocks that are up at the time you post. Today you didn't mention that MLPL is down. You never mention SWFT which has been down since you bought it (and I know because I bought it too. You denied recommending ARLP until I found your old posts in which you were pumping it.
Third, I frequently have mentioned my holdings and buys and sells. In fact I went into my reasoning in great detail on IRM and just recently on what I am thinking about WMC. You just can't remember what I post about, because I do not pump my winners every single day that they are up like you do. Do you not recall my discussion on my recent buy of TEGP or ARI? Do you not recall me mentioning closed end muni funds? There are many posters on this board who don't feel the need to brag about their holdings or their returns but you think we are in competition with each other
Stagg, you say we should work together on this board, but you don't seem interested in any views that don't agree with yours. That's why you fought with me on SDRL and posted this response when I mentioned PSEC. You mentioned stop loss orders, but other shared my view, but you don't attack them for that.
So now we have a post above in which you say that you "don't get mad" followed by a second post which attacks me in which you say you don't want to pick a fight, with lies about my posting history. I'll let the board determine who is lying and who is picking a fight, and continue offering my opinion on whatever I like whether you like it or not.
Gambler, PSEC is a weak sister. I don't know what's wrong with it, but it makes a move to its 50 dma and then reverses. Other BDCs are doing the same. Might make for a good trading vehicle, but people get bullish each time it makes a move higher only to be disappointed when it doesn't break through. Stagg gets mad when I point out its bad performance and when he "forgets" to mention when it declines and only mentions the stocks that are up.
Many of the MLPs that I follow are selling off a bit. Don't know whether it is because of oil production numbers or fear of a good jobs number that will produce an increase in long rates and more pressure for the Fed to raise the Fed funds target.
Jeff Gundlach and another bond guy were on CNBC and neither sees the Fed raising the Fed funds target this year, but they did see long rates rising. So while everyone is taking comfort that stocks can't sell off until the Fed raises rates, it may be the rise in long rates (which makes it more expensive to borrow to buy back stock) that proves the straw that causes a stock market decline.
Stagg, in case I wasn't clear, I would buy into a WMC spo if one came, but maybe not immediately. It usually takes a few days or weeks for the market to absorb the shares issued in an spo, depending on the amount of shares offered and the company (NRZ's spo didn't experience this type of absorption period). I highlighted the risk which includes missing the upcoming dividend of about 65 cents versus the typical decline in share price of some 4-6%.
WMC has had a nice run since I bought last year and as their ex-CIO has described on their board, they have a portfolio of IO's and inverse IOs that contribute some 3-5% of that 18% dividend yield that makes them different from many of the other mREITS. But the market can have times when it ignores those facts.
Plus the jobs number comes out Friday and that could set off a market decline.
Stagg, I don't use stop limit orders because of how they work (as describe in many articles) For example, if WMC is trading at $15.30 and you put a stop limit at $15 and they announce an spo, the flood of sell orders may cause the market maker to move the bid ask right to $14.50 and your limit order may not get executed. Another risk is that there are algorithms called stop limit hunters that see where the limit orders are and manipulate the stock price down to take out the limits and then the stock bounces.back. A stock limit is just an order and there is no guarantee that it has to be executed if the stock gaps down.
But I'm happy to have others chime in.
stagg, the issue with stop loss orders is that in a decline the price could blow right past your order, and it will never get executed. We know that mREITs have to continually do spo's to raise money to grow their asset base and we know that they don't usually wait long when their stock starts to trade over a certain % over book value.
I like WMC and I pointed out the pros and cons of trying to trade this short term move. If I do decide to sell (and that decision is closely with today's move up) and they do an spo, I would buy back.
Plus, Friday is the jobs report day and if there is a stronger number, rates could pop higher and all interest sensitive stocks could get whacked.
So according to DH, the market is some kind of self-correcting mechanism that can sense overvaluation and that portfolio insurance or ETFs, leverage and credit default swaps and margin accounts would never turn a routine correction into a bigger decline, because the buyers would jump in. Yeah, just like the 2008 crash didn't stop until the Fed started QE and the SEC outlawed short selling on financial issues. Any even if a decline would produce a nice buying opportunity, does that mean everyone should keep buying now because at the worst the market will keep rising and a correction will only bring us back to the current level?
Most here have never experienced a secular bear market, but they have occurred. Why is it different this time?
WMC is up a little bit this morning and is approaching overbought territory with the RSI at 68. They (meaning the underwriters for the next spo) may try to push the stock up over$15.50 so that they can do an spo even though the next divy will be declared at the end of June and paid in July. There's no assurance that they will do an spo, but usually when an mREIT gets over book and they haven't done an spo for some time, they will pull the trigger to get some cash to invest in more assets. Higher rates will also give them more opportunities to invest in.
If you sell, the risk is that there is no spo and you miss the next divy. If you hold, you get the divy, but you the stock might decline some 4-6% for the offering. I don't know what I am doing yet, but am leaning toward selling if the price gets over $15.50ish.
Gambler, I sort of agree, but I think the Fed uses jawboning instead to try to curtail the stock market bubble. The real reason that they want to try to raise rates is so that they have room to cut them when the next recession occurs. They would rather not have to resort to QE to jumpstart the economy the next time that we have a recession. Remember, the Fed also likes to count the bull market as one of the limited successes that they had that was a result of their monetary policy (chiefly QE) even though the "wealth effect" mostly was to the benefit of the top 5% and was skewed heavily to the top 1% and above.
Gambler, I think you put to much credence in the Fed's jawboning. I do agree with you that they very much want to return to a normal rate structure just so that they can say that have returned to normalcy, but I doubt they even know how to make that happen in the current environment.
The market certainly has cooled a bit even with the small increase. Depending on which chart you look at, you can still see an upward sloping chart, or you can see one that is starting to go sideways or at least slow the rate of increase. The transports are clearly showing that the economy is not getting stronger. As some commentators have stated, the bull market does not have to end in a bang, but it could go out with a whimper.
It's amazing what some people post without seeing the irony of what they write. "People see what they want" including focusing only on a 1 year chart of the Dow. Why focus only on a 1 year chart and not the last 7 years? If one believes that Treasuries are in a bubble, it is hard to believe that stocks would be safe considering that most of the rise in stock prices have come from companies issuing debt to buyback their stock. If rates should rise from a decline in stock prices, it's hard to imagine the economy and the stock market not being affected. Pension funds would use such a rate rise to sell some stocks and move to bonds at those higher rates, since the economy would likely slow if rates rose and corporate profits would also be affected from any slowdown.
The fact is that in our history there comes a point when corporate profits and corporate margins peak and stocks become overvalued. That doesn't mean we get a crash or a financial crisis, but a regular old-fashioned bear market, like we get every 7-10 years. Those insisting that this time is different seem to be seeing what they want to see.
Pale, I'm just looking at the chart. It could still start to find a bottom as the RSI is now oversold at 25, but I might wait until they announce their next dividend come July just to be sure there is nothing going on with the fundamentals.