I missed the distribution announcement last night. They missed the subordination threshold again and actually had a lower per unit amount. Production was lower again in all segments by almost 15% in oil, 20% in NGLs and close to 15% in gas. Gas and liquids prices were higher, but that couldn't even save them. It probably hangs around this level and may even accelerate into the ex-date. Then I think it tanks again to prior lows.
Stagg, anytime some type of Wall Street product gets too popular with the masses, that inevitably is a tell that it will tank. While the following are not "products," the theme is the same: when something gets too popular, that usually means that it is priced for perfection and that there's no one left to buy. We have seen this with the royalty trusts, inverse ETFs, mREITs, BDCs, leverage loan funds, biotechs, internet stocks (I realize I am mixing investment products and stock sectors). By all means, ride the wave as long as you can, but mind the technicals and don't get too greedy going for grand slams in every at-bat.
I don't get it. They guide to AFFO of 9-11 per quarter. STAG, a comparable industrial REIT is trading at 16 times AFFO. 16 times .40 =$6.4.
If this doesn't start to approach $7 soon, I bet someone starts to talk about putting it up for sale.
yes and no. Many stocks are weakening and the blow ups are occurring in the yield-chasing sectors like mREITs and BDCs. Many flocked to the BDCs who were to benefit when rates rose. Whoops. But there are several MLPs and GPs that are outperforming: EPD, MMP, TRGP, ETE and WGP. Yield chasing usually results in pain.
Lots of earnings etc. this morning, but also wanted to point out one of Ed's favorites, which is PAGP which has had a nice run. PAGP is the gp of PAA which is one of the best MLPs over the long term. PAA reported a quarterly miss so it and PAGP are down this morning, but are sticking with their above average distribution growth projections. I think PAGP is projecting a 14% growth in the distribution. May want to put it on your screen.
Again, growing distributions by gp's lead to outstanding price increases (see TRGP and WGP).
William, I have owned it since it was spun out of ATLS a few years back. While the yield and rising distribution has been nice, the stock price has done nothing (mostly down). At some point, the distribution increases have to result in a higher stock price otherwise it just makes it difficult for them to buy more properties if they have to use 50% stock with the stock trading at a 11-12% yield. While the yield is above average for the sector, I think the continued spo's benefit ATLS the most.
Yeah Bob, I am holding off on WMC and instead added some PSEC. Between WMC, PSEC and ARP's spo, there are only so many stocks that one can "average" down with. Thank god for TRGP, WGP and MMP which have absolutely killed it.
WMC missed big time and is likely to get crushed this morning, possibly below $14. Just goes to show you when everyone loved it back in January that you always have to be weary that these mREITs can miss if they zig instead of zagging.
The news however is not all that bad. Remember that GAAP earnings don't mean as much to mREITs and that earnings reports are the past and the future is what is important. They reported a low book at quarter end of March but said that the book is close to $15 now, reflecting the recent drop in rates. I think the next divy will be about 55 cents which is down from the previous quarter.
I think the lesson of mREITs is clear. No matter how good their previous record, they always seem to mess up somewhere down the road. Keep that in mind when you hold the next market darling.
If the selling gets overdone (under $14), I might nibble but only so that I can unload my position later on without having to come all the way back.
Gambler, Javalin is run by ARR. I think they were trying to copy the AGNC/MTGE setup and have ARR be the agency mREIT and JMI be the nonagency mREIT, but it looks like JMI still has a big agency %. Leverage is on the high side near 8. Generally, if rates rise, the agency mREITs will get hit but he nonagency mREITs should outperform. With the recent decline in rates, the agency mREITs have come back alive and the nonagencies have also done well. I think the nonagencies are pushing out the curve on riskier credit products, but as long as the music keeps playing they can keep dancing. You wouldn't think both the agencies and nonagencies could both outperform.
I have WMC, NYMT and MTGE (leftover from last year). They are all trades. I don't view them as stocks that add long-term capital appreciation. If you get the interest rate move wrong, the decline in the stock price wipes out the divy.
They didn't even wait for the earnings report to be digested. I might have to add some ARP just to lower my basis. With all of these acquisitions they have done, you would think this starts to pay off soon.
stagg, the market is cyclical with an upward bias (probably because we "count" in depreciating dollars as opposed to in gold or in inflation-adjusted dollars). There are many indices that have not recaptured past highs and numerous stocks that are still below their all time highs. The list of outperforming stocks is constantly changing with past outperformers (leaders by total return) being replaced by new leaders. Today's winners could become tomorrow's losers. The street doesn't just run one-way.
Stagg, Todd Harrison of minyanville likes to say that it is "the reaction to the news that is more important than the news itself." There are lots of companies that reported good earnings, but my point is that if the stocks are not going up on that news, then maybe that good news has been priced into the stock. In my experience, stock prices don't go down only when bad news is reported. Many stocks reach an "inflection point" when the news becomes "less good" before it becomes bad. Not to pick on you, but as an example, when SDRL was hitting highs last September, it probably didn't have a bad report, but right after it hit a new high, it started going sideways until Nov when it broke down. I doubt the news on SDRL changed that drastically from Sept to Nov. My question is, is the overall market in the same kind of pattern that SDRL was from Sept to Nov, when it was going sideways but starting to break down.
I'm not saying that I think the bull market is dead, but a 10-15% correction still hurts especially if you are considering adding money at this point.
It usually happens after I read a Jeff Cooper article, but he makes some good points in his recent article on the technicals. The Russell rallied up to resistance and has now broke through the 200 dma. Many charts are looking bad, most notably all of the glamour stocks, but for us, several of the BDC companies. This news about the SEC challenging PSEC's accounting treatment could likely spread to many BDCs. Guilt by association. While the first decline in the BDCs was related to their expulsion from certain indices, many have rallied but still have a downward sloping pattern. MAIN, TCAP, HTGC and HRZN all have bad patterns. Remember, the play on BDCs was that they were supposed to benefit if interest rates rose, but that has not happened. Meanwhile, many MLPs have turned in great performances with fundamentals to match, but historically this sector has a practice of weakening in the May period. I'm often wrong on trying to predict the direction of the market, but with all of the good earnings that were reported, you would think we would have day after day of market records. Keep an eye on any holdings that have good reports but then give up their earlier gains. That can't be a sign of strength, but maybe is a sign that people are selling in May.
Helmut, this has to be one of the most frustrating stocks. It seems to be doing everything right on the business side, yet the stock price seems hemmed in near $13.50. Was hoping for a breakout. I am starting to wonder if this is a sign that the medical property REITs are fully valued.
jk, I picked some up in the spo. Everyone loved WMC when it was selling at a large premium to book and when rates were rising, now rates are falling and the premium is not so large. I am somewhat concerned that the dividend will be reduced again and that could cause some retail selling. As for the chart, it appears to have found support like it did from Dec to Feb before it jumped up to $16. I am not holding this for the long term but playing for the rise into the dividend, unless things change on the interest rate front and it looks like rates break below support.
Even the SD trusts were up today. I think that is a fake out rally that will collapse. We'll see what CHKR's distribution announcement says about production. It's difficult to play the puts as the premiums are high. The past history of declines probably has affected the volatility that gets priced into the puts.
Bud, did they overpay? $135mm for next year ebitda of $9mm puts the multiple at 15. Not sure if that is market for pipelines.