Dividend got cut in half from 65 cents to 30 cents mirroring a similar decline in earnings. If you roll the divy forward (which is not necessarily a projection because it is a variable pay), it comes out to yield 17%, which is down from the over 30% in January.
Funny yahee hasn't picked up the earnings report in their news, but the stock is not declining which probably means that it might have already been priced into the stock when the stock declined from the mid-teens (when it was first mentioned on this board) to $7 today.
The spot rate has ticked up but is still under $20k and their average for Q1 was $38k, so it's going to have to go up a lot to get to that average for Q2 to produce another 30 cent divy for Q2.
They did mention that the effect of opening the Panama Canal was uncertain.
I would keep an eye on that spot rate to see if a seasonal bottom has really been reached. It may be a better risk reward now with the results out and the divy cut, then it was in December when it was pumped as a 34% yielder with no risk of a cut in the divy.
Bob, the oil market is being driven by the different weekly reports. One day it's up because of a decline in rigs and the next day it's down because of a build in inventories (and vis versa). One day there's rumor of a meeting of producers, the next day it falls apart. One day the temperature is colder than normal, the next it is hot. Who really knows when the supply and demand finally balance out.
As for the stocks, it looks somewhat like rotation as many of the energy names got beaten down too far. But when do those who participated in their runup, takes their profits and rotate out to the next too beaten down names?
Way to go Captain Obvious. Two weeks ago DH was telling us the technicals were bullish and now they are not. Ya think? Now he is warning us about the limits of financial engineering. For someone who was in the tech industry you would think he was familiar with all of the big tech growth stories that eventually moderated.
Apple the stock had a great run and if they produce another blockbuster product they could easily have another great run, but until then it probably goes sideways.
It's not just the current spot price that banks look at. They look at the entire futures curve in a "price deck" and they probably have already put together their book over the last few weeks.
You are reading this all wrong (what a surprise). This sounds more like a make-whole to make up for the fact that his stock went down the tubes. The cash is payable now, not after he serves the next year. He's the CFO and he probably got hosed by Cohen into taking so much stock when he signed on. Cohen probably told him that ATLS was going to pay that 55 cents per share on the common and he bought it hook, line and sinker. You would think that if he was confident in the stock, with it trading so low, that he would double down, but I guess he learned his lesson.
But don't be surprised if the Fed comes to the rescue again with a no more rate hikes forever pledge. Then DH can tell us how the market goes up because of emerging markets or corporate earnings.
Trading down. Probably finds support and I doubt it goes lower than the low 90's if it even gets that low because of the buyback. But while cheaper than it was today, probably not enough of a reason to step in and buy it without some better news on their next products. There is a little bit of a head and shoulders, but I think the buyback keeps the stock price from falling too far. Probably takes the S&P down because of the weighting it has in the index.
And like clockwork here is the coward DH to punch and run behind the ignore button, name calling while attempting to act like he is a saint because he would never point out if anyone made a bad call never mind if someone posted something that mr. Know it all didn't agree with. What happened to that kinder gentler DH who wasn't engaging in negative attacks because of his health. I guess that doesn't apply to taking pot shots at me. Now look I got poor sick DH upset that he just had to put his two cents in again and remind everyone what a bad poster I am to dare challenge anyone's view(read DH's view).
Sure they are Stagg. We don't care how well you are doing because we are not in competition with you. and no one has the same financial situation or risk tolerance as you do. You can bragg about your winners, but you can't escape your losers and the list is growing. Posting 1 month Total Returns does not make you Warren Buffet or Jimmy Buffet.
Well if I kept anyone out of AVACF, which Stagg was pumping until I brought it up, then I considered that a contribution. You actually were in it and lost money and probably would have stayed in it if Stagg kept pumping it.
Next up is Avance, another one of your pumps that u would have kept pumping had I not shed some light on it. Last Week you bragged about a one day gain on the Brazilian fertilizer company without stating its total return since u bought it. It's called selective disclosure and you are the master.
But last week you were bragging how well CLPL was doing for you and making fun of "naysayers." So let's add CLPL to list of high yield stocks that have not turned out well.
Well they bought the convertible preferred shares in ATLS last year before the &%$ hit the fan, so that's what it says. This is not a new purchase as you seem to imply. ATLS owns the GP interest in ARP and that is still going to be worth something when ARP restructures its debt.
Really how misleading are you trying to be?
Another misleading post (not your first time). The Cohens (along with Cooperman) bought these convertiible preferreds last year (not today as you suggest). They converted them to common. I seem to recall that Cooperman had converted his earlier and then dumped the common. I haven't pulled the terms of the convertible preferred, but maybe they had a time limit to convert. At any rate, this may mean nothing and you as the poster have the duty to be more forthcoming.
Good for you JK. I welcome your posts. It's always good to discuss new areas and new names I think the main difficulty with some of your picks is that they need more explanation. It seems you come at these names from a technical view but yet there seems to be a growth reason that is causing you to expect them to move. Don't be afraid to expand on your posts. There's a fine line between discussion and pumping. We are seeing more and more new posters and the discussion has expanded well beyond SFL, shippiing and high yield stocks.
Many of the major indices are weighted toward the well-known names that we all know, which also happen to be the some of the most expensive and overvalued stocks. So mutual fund managers can still stay invested in names that offer better value at current levels. The net effect is that the big averages could decline as mutual funds rotate out of the overweighted names in indices. DH is fond of saying that the market goes up over the long term, but it also has regular periods of decline which are caused by selling of the names that are overweight in the averages. The concept of Expected Return is a key component to how institutional investors invest and by most measures the Expected Return is close to zero (and it may be negative) for the next several years.
I would probably avoid both until they have restructured. At present, there is probably little equity value until they restructure their debt. Many e&p MLPs are going to be forced to restructure so the ones that don't will have too high a debt burden when compared to the ones that do restructure it.
When you buy a lottery ticket, at least you know the odds and the ticket price. With the common in many of these names, you don't know the odds. My experience is that the common usually gets hosed and many times so does the preferred. The bonds probably make out better but you have to know which ones and what the right price is.
Finally, I don't know the reputation of the management team running VNR, but the Cohens who run ARP are not oil and gas people. They are financiers who learned how to syndicate tax shelter investment partnerships. Even though I made money on a rebound in their midstream unit APL, they almost blew that up.
We talked about CEQP yesterday. It's digesting some of its big gain yesterday and possibly making for a good entry point as the dividend is now more secure and provides a double digit yield with the chance for further stock price gains. However, an article on s.a. warned about possible adverse tax consequences if you are opening a new position now. There is likely to be gain from their sale of assets to the joint venture and previous cancellation of debt income from buying back discounted debt, which may offset the income received from the distribution. Longer term holders may have losses to offset these gains, but a new holder may not get the benefit of those. It might make sense to wait until the new j.v. is closed before establishing a position. How partnerships establish tax basis for their unitholders is a mystery. For some MLPs, if you buy any time during the month, your tax basis is established at the 1st of the month.