Len, there are plenty of reasons to be bearish if one cares to acknowledge them.
1. China is headed for a hard landing.
2. Glencore and the other trading firms and banks exposure to them.
3. Earnings have likely peaked.
4. Sovereign wealth funds like Norway's are starting to sell, reversing the inflows from the petrodollar.
5. Technical. The market rolled started to roll over in July. There can be violent rallies in the middle of bear markets due to short squeezes and the current rally looks like it rallied right up to resistance. The ETFs and HFTs will exacerbate any selling, just like they exacerbated the bull market run.
6.High yield spreads are blowing out. It started in the energy sector but is spreading to other high yield sectors.
7. The US economy is slowing. Watch the Atlanta Fed data.
Retail investors by nature are optimists and often ignore the signs that the market has reached an inflection point, partly from their own optimism but also from the great Wall Street promotion machine. Wall Street never calls a top in stocks because they don't want to #$%$ retail and jeopardize their assets under management. Instead, you always hear the slogans to "buy and hold" and "no one can time the market" yet history shows that bear markets come fairly regularly.
Gambler, good luck with your NMM, but I seem to recall this very same argument with ARR. In my view, it is the trap that income oriented investors fall into. Same applies to PSEC and a number of other high yielders. If one isn't going to consider a chart when one buys a high yield stock, then why not just buy the highest yielding stocks and see if it works out. One could buy ARP with a yield of 40% or any number of MLPs with yields over 25%. What could go wrong if paper losses aren't counted?
Gambler, on Glencore, they announced a cut in zinc production and Rio Tinto immediately announced an increase in their production. This means that the price of zinc is not going to bounce as stronger companies take production away from the weaker hands. Same thing for oil. Any curtailment by US shale producers will be filled by Iran or the other countries because they need cash.
Good move that you booked some profits.
kee, I offer the lesson that should have been learned from those who owned SDRL and who bet with the board that they wouldn't cut their divy when they said so. Many CEOs will say anything the market wants to hear and then when things change, offer the excuse that things changed and "no one saw this coming."
I don't own NMM but since DH loves it, by definition I have to offer the "other" side which he always seems to ignore. First, the problem with any stock that has a chart like NMM is that it is going down and no one knows where the bottom might be (unless you can go back several years to see if the pattern is repeating). To me it looks like NMM bounced and ran right up to resistance at the 50 dma (a bit over). Second, DH says so what if they cut the divy, but how many stocks cut their divies and then bounce up like that is good news. Divy cuts invariably lead to more selling. Plus sometimes one cut leads to another cut later on depending on the business. Third, as with all stocks, you don't "earn" the entire dividend in one quarter and with most stocks, the stock is marked down by the market maker on the ex-date. Most of us aren't interested in what our annualized return looks like based on extrapolating out one quarter's worth of divies. We want sustainable divies and at least flat stock performance. So why chase something which is still in a downtrend?
The last earnings release, this is what they said: Book value per common share of $6.82 at June 30, 2015 as compared to $7.03 at March 31, 2015 and $7.07 per common share at December 31, 2014. This is different from what the numbers calculated by your formula from the 10Q, but the difference may be explainable by the fact that the 10Q includes variable interest entities (basically the securitization vehicles). Even though the VIE are required to be included in GAAP financials, they may not represent actual equity that NYMT can get.
You should realize that the high yield spreads have blown out since June and that the book values are likely to be adjusted downward. When you are dealing with financial companies that in most part get to pick the model that derives the "value" of their financial assets, be careful about placing too much reliance on book value in a trailing SEC report. All the banks had higher book values going into the financial crisis and how accurate did that prove.
Reasons to be bearish:
1.China: They are headed for a hard landing and are selling Treasuries which reverses flows.
2. Glencore and other commodities traders. These are the potential AIG's of this time, with huge amounts of debt from their trading operations. The Bank of England is now making their banks disclose their exposure to these companies. If Glencore gets downgraded to junk, watch out.
3. Sovereign wealth funds are selling. This is a reversal of the petrodollar recycling into equities.
4. Earnings have peaked. Companies have squeezed all they can mostly using buybacks, but the high dollar is squeezing them. Analyst firms are finally starting to reduce S&P estimates.
5. High yield spreads are blowing out. It started with energy junk bonds, but has spread to other sectors. Credit always leads equities.
6. The economy is slowing. The Atlanta Fed has cut their GDP estimates again.
7. Technicals. The market started rolling over in the summer. There can be vicious bear market rallies which makes everyone complacent again. All of the ETFs and HFTs can exacerbate selling (as they have exacerbated buying).
Reasons to be bullish:
1. After 4 rounds of QE, the Fed isn't going to let the market go without putting up a fight.
The divy isn't safe until they get coverage over 1.0. Not sure if they new acquisition is going to get them there. They will keep it the same for this quarter as Walker said it was important to him personally, but the market knows that it is going to get cut if their coverage doesn't improve.
Sarge, have you not learned anything from what I have taught you? SWKS broke down in July and failed at the 50 dma. 50 dma crossing over the 200 dma. It could go back to the 50's.
kee and Gambler, both of you should realize that you are tempting the market gods by celebrating your good trades. So many posters have done the victory lap and have then gotten creamed later (me included). We won't know if that was the bottom for a while. Congrats that you both stepped up and bought, by now comes the hard part, whether to book those gains, which represent several years of divies or to hold on and potentially lose them. It's not an easy decision.
Motley Fool is an expert? Ha Ha Ha. Next thing you will say Cramer is a genius and Zacks is a first rate analyst firm. I do hope your investment strategy doesn't involve following their picks.
As for being right, Motley's article conflicts with ARP's own SEC filings, so either Motley is wrong or ARP is lying? I'll go with the SEC filings, but you can't even find those, nevermind understand them.
Congrats on your trade. I think you should mortgage the house and max out all of your credit cards and bet it all on ARP.
Gambler, these VIX related vehicles are very difficult to play. I have been wanting to buy some inverse ETFs, either on the Russell, S&P or the inverse biotech or oil ETFs, but have not yet. It seems that by the time you see that the trend has flipped and the market is starting down, these inverse ETFs have already surged and it's too late.
I am also keeping an eye on NUGT. If and when the Fed goes to NIRP and QE4, that should surge. It's already moved up from below $30 to 43.
Still right at the 50 dma. This hasn't been above the 50 dma since May, but it may have some wind provided the Fed keeps talking and China or Glencore doesn't blow up Next stop could be $9 because there might be some shorts on the other side of the 50 dma that would have to cover going into the distribution announcement. But it is going to have a hard time getting through $10.50 without a good acquisition announcement or good coverage.
So the question is what are you going to do with that gain, which is equal to almost 4 years of divies? Are you going to take some off or continue to roll the dice, before KMI reports. There is no doubt that MLPs have bounced and thankfully I still have some. But let's wait until they report and give some guidance before we declare alls clear.
stagg, he's exactly right. The other countries, Iran, Venezuela etc. need the money and they will fill in the supply and keep prices low. They will make up the shortfall in price by cutting programs to their populations. The biggest news item was that Norway's sovereign wealth fund is selling. There is going to be an increasing supply of stocks being sold by all of these sovereign wealth funds and that is going to push financial asset prices lower unless the Central banks come in to mop up that supply. The financial media is not going to mention this because they don't want to "scare" retail out of the markets, but this is how cycles turn.
I don't know Gambler. Clearly Russia is playing the Saudi card to try to get them to reduce production, but if they reduce, won't that just lead to all of the others picking up that supply? I just saw a headline that the Saudis may be reducing expenditures, perhaps on their rich subsidy programs for their population. In the long run, this is going to cause them problems because their population is going to turn against the govt, but govt's never change unless they are forced to. The other factor is that all of these oil rich countries who were recycling their oil dollars into equities through their sovereign wealth funds are now going to be selling equities to replace that flow.
The long term problem is that the petrodollar is in danger, which of course is what history tells us -- every country that has had a reserve currency has lost it through excessive printing and trying to defend their empire all over the world.