Helmut, not meaning to slam you but you initially mentioned MPW several months ago, so to be fair, you have to measure its return from that point, not from the beginning of the year. MPW was as high as $17 last year. I did not chase it but waited until it was oversold, but MPW has been a frustrating stock to own as it is doing the right things fundamentally but the stock price has not done much. One's perspective on any stock can vary depending on when you purchased it. Those who bought MPW at $17 may be more frustrated.
Another negative article on SDRL from Barrons. Geez, you would think this stock was named Facebook or General Motors. There have been more stories and comments about SDRL in the last 2 months than probably the last 5 years. Who knew it was so closely followed.
Saw a news item that the drought in the western US is having an effect on beef prices. After running up and becoming overbought, COW has now backed off to its 50 dma. Anyone ever play this ETF?
JK, it reminds me of the scene from Animal House. Blame can be assessed at both parties, who are both wholly owned subsidiaries of crony capitalists, but that obscures the fact that this entire rally has been built on easy money and is bound to blow up at some point. To think that we could have a slow return to "normal" (whatever that is) is folly. Anyone who is familiar with the history of finance and monetary policy knows it all ends the same way. It's just the timing that is different.
Stagg, we have all made the error of confusing a stock with a company. A company can be a great operation, but it's stock could be overvalued (and vice versa). The fundamentals never tell you the inflection point when the sentiment is changing on the stock, but the technicals can help you determine when it is overvalued or when it has bottomed out.
They say never fall in love with a stock and never get too confident in your past investment performance as the market is the great humbler. Just when you think investing is easy, the market proves that it is not.
Ed, I'm waiting for Antero's midstream IPO which should come in May or June and hopefully with a good price if we get a nice selloff. Also, MWE is sitting right on support and that could give way leading to a good buying opportunity.
Ed, I have been waiting to add some closed end muni funds, but they also might get hit despite the plunge in Treasury yields just because they tend to be illiquid.
Bob, I agree except with respect to timing. The way these pullbacks typically play out is that the highly leveraged names (biotechs etc) get hit first, but the selling spreads to the quality names because they are more liquid and have to get sold to meet margin calls, hedge fund redemptions etc. But you are right that once this downdraft is finished there will be opportunities in the quality companies with good yields. Just don't jump in too quickly thinking they are immune to selling pressure.
There is almost no way to know for sure whether a stock has reached an inflection point other than by trying to decipher the technicals. Rarely do they ring a bell that sentiment is changing on a stock and the analysts are always late (both in removing buys and adding buys -- they are too busy getting their big clients out or in first before they publish to the rest of us).
MWE had a great rally in 2013. I never buy a stock hitting overbought levels (RSI over 70) because they invariably come back. But sometimes they break their upward channels so you need to pay attention. Clearly sentiment changed on MWE. At first the market was giving them the benefit of the doubt on the delay in raising the distribution by more than small amounts. Now the market is saying "show me." When they do come through, there will be plenty of time to jump back in.
Right now, MWE is sitting on support and with the general market getting weak as we head into May, I bet support breaks. If $62 breaks, next support is around $57, but if this market correction starts to snowball, it could see $52 which is where it broke out and retested in March 2013. I wouldn't add until the overall market stabilizes. Opportunities are made up faster than losses.
I am not selling here because selling an MLP causes too many adverse tax consequences to me, the yield is not bad and I do believe in the longer story.
And you just figured this out now? When it was going up day after day after day, based on nothing but QE, it was normal and not something to be worried about because you were winning. Welcome to the casino where the house always wins unless you go home early.
stagg, actually jk called it before that, but the pressures have been building for some time. I think we have a ways to go down and we could break through the previous support level. The fact that the bounce from the release of the Fed's dovish minutes did not hold for more than 1 day signals a weak market. We could go down a significant amount and still technically be in a bull market. Who knows whether it will be better to buy quality stocks that get hit or some of the momentum stocks that get absolutely pummeled. In the past the worst quality stocks seem to bounce back more because they get hit harder and because all of the hedge fund money plays those names, while the retail trade sticks with quality. I'm worried because we are going into May and last year we skipped the sell in May and go away, so we could make up for it this year by going down twice as much to make up. There is some type of crazy blood moon coming in a few weeks.
I'm usually wrong in predicting market declines, so to try to reverse recent declines, I am going to post about the market looking like it is going to crack.
The biotechs and go-go names are getting slaughtered and it isn't even May yet. If this thing gets snowballing, it could be rather violent and its doubtful that the Fed is going to be able to reverse the taper. Be careful trying to buy falling knives.
It has been a monster, but if you look at a chart, it is still in an upward sloping channel. You can easily draw this "channel" on some of the charting sites like StockCharts. Occasionally it will get into overbought terrritory on an RSI basis as it did in Nov and Dec, but then it corrects and stays in the "channel." EVen with the recent spurt, it is still not overbought on a technical basis. Of course, we are approaching May and the "sell in May and go away" could effect all of the market. In addition, sometimes stocks will pause as they hit "round" numbers like $50.
I'm holding for now, but will see what happens through the summer.
I could be wrong about this, but I thought the designation "Final" is used when the partnership terminates and that is the last K-1. There have been instances in the past when an MLP had to amend their K-1's ( I think WPZ had some issue a couple of years back) but generally this is not like mREITs, BDCs and the like in which the characterization of a dividend or capital gain is changed resulting in an amended 1099.
Yes, buying on a pullback. But you did not say that in your first post. Timing is as important as selection. Just look at those who might have bought SDRL or SFL when they topped.
I own a couple of Ed's stocks, but they are not up as much as those numbers suggest. For example, TRGP was in the mid $80's at the beginning of the year and is now $101, and that is not a 93% gain as I calculate it.
Are these YTD gains annualized or is the YTD going back to the period starting 1 year earlier?
I thought YTD refers to the return from the beginning of the calendar year.
My calculation of the YTD gain in STAG also differs. Maybe those calculators that you use have assumptions built in (i.e. as to reinvestment of dividends, timing etc.) that explain these differences.
Broke under its 50 dma. Once again, in retrospect ,it appears that the RSI over 70 that registered in early March, followed by the cross of the MACD lines called the trend down.
Raising the divy is usually a sign that fundamentals are good and improving. That being said, last year this stock approached $31 into May and then went into free-fall falling some 8 points in 2 months. Could the market have already anticipated this good news on the fundamentals? Barron's already had a good story about HPT. The RSI is approaching the overbought level.
There is a certain amount of comfort buying a stock with improving fundamentals and a good yield, but too many times I have seen that the market has already priced that it. Same thing happened with your other pick, MPW, and that stock is still struggling to get past $13. Granted they are different companies in different subsectors.
Sarge, I don't know. It seems to me that all of these private-equity type stocks (BX, KKR, OZM etc) have already had nice runs over the last year. Looks like BX is a triple from their lows of a few years ago. Clearly, the yield is pulling in investors who have migrated away from mREITs. At the top of the last cycle before the implosion, BX went public, top-ticking the last bull market. I think it is just getting back to the price at which it came public.