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Legg Mason Opportunity C Message Board

marklibera 476 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 hours ago Member since: Aug 14, 2007
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  • Reply to

    buying more and more!!!!

    by phil_dabasket Mar 23, 2015 7:54 AM
    marklibera marklibera 4 hours ago Flag

    Yea, Gartman is no better than Cramer. Frequently wrong and frequently flip-flopping, all so that he can sell more newsletters.

  • marklibera by marklibera Mar 26, 2015 7:17 PM Flag

    Reduced slightly to 0.67 from 70 cents. This should have been expected as their core number was 65 cents last quarter. The book as of end of Feb was $14.46 if you give effect to the divy payment being subtracted. So it's fairly priced. It might bump a tiny bit going into the ex-date.

  • Reply to

    OT: Oil prices

    by dividendhunter Mar 26, 2015 2:36 PM
    marklibera marklibera Mar 26, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    good points except for the part of the bottom in March 2009, which would not have happened without the Fed starting Qe.

  • Reply to

    Depressing Market....

    by rbgambler99 Mar 26, 2015 10:06 AM
    marklibera marklibera Mar 26, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    Gambler, it is so ironic that whenever someone either mentions some stocks like the chip stocks, based on a Cramer mention, or give a comment on the Dow going up, that no sooner are these posts made, then the market does the exact opposite.
    This will probably turn out to be a minor correction and I think the move up in oil will be another chance to sell.

  • Reply to

    o/t Sold the SWKS

    by sarge198502 Mar 25, 2015 11:34 AM
    marklibera marklibera Mar 26, 2015 10:22 AM Flag

    Bayman, good luck buying the dip. A couple of days ago i warned that the chart looked bad despite the bounce.

  • Reply to

    OT: recent DOW chart activity

    by dividendhunter Mar 24, 2015 12:25 AM
    marklibera marklibera Mar 24, 2015 1:29 PM Flag

    Who looks at the Dow? Yes it bounced off its 50 dma, but it really has to take out its prior high around 18288 to keep the uptrend in tact. Some of the other averages have the same issue although the S&P is closer to a high and the Russell is in new high territory. There are other things to look at technically, like the oscillator and the summation index, which seem in neutral. And then there are the weekly charts which look to still be in uptrends. But if you look at the individual ETFs, a few sectors have rolled over. Cyclicals and healthcare still rolling along. We'll have end of the quarter window dressing this week and earnings in April and May. The battle, as it has been for a long time, is between a possible slowing economy (meaning earnings down or not up by as much) but less threat of rate hikes or growing economy with greater risk of rate hikes.

  • Reply to

    OT: More bad news to come for oil

    by marklibera Mar 22, 2015 6:30 PM
    marklibera marklibera Mar 24, 2015 1:10 PM Flag

    Kbon, Factoids mentioned that the interest rates on the bond prices of the better midstream MLPs are holding below the yield of their dividends, which is a positive note. Credit usually deteriorates before equity. Comparing bond yields and equity yields may be a useful exercise to determine whether a stock is starting to go south. The corporate bond market, while it may have wider spreads, may not be as susceptible to algos, HFTs, naked shorting and all of the other negative influences on equities that can disguise a deterioration.

  • Reply to

    Volume

    by jbcguy Mar 23, 2015 11:40 AM
    marklibera marklibera Mar 24, 2015 12:21 AM Flag

    Good discussion. Two points to add from some readings this weekend. First, an article mentioned that the production out of the Bakken is likely to increase this June due to a cut in the production tax for two years and a rule that drilling has to start on leases within 1 year. Had not seen that mentioned before. Second, another article compared analyst's DCF projections against historical projections and concluded that the projections (which the analysts get from management) historically have not been that accurate. Maybe this time is different and maybe the analysts will have a bit more scrutiny, but I would bet that disappointment is going to be dealt with more harshly than a slight beat ahead of expectations. Finally, the Marcellus is producing like mad and gas is likely going below $2. All of these bounces have been dead cat bounces.

  • Reply to

    j Cramer 4 horse men

    by sarge198502 Mar 23, 2015 6:34 PM
    marklibera marklibera Mar 24, 2015 12:07 AM Flag

    The charts on these look good with only NXPI looking real overbought. It looks like some of them are prone to 20% corrections. Some of these are doubles and triples within a year. I guess if you just mentioned them without saying that Cramer had mentioned them, it would be worth more investigation into their valuation and earnings expectations, but one just has to wonder if Cramer was the kiss of death.

  • Reply to

    OT: More bad news to come for oil

    by marklibera Mar 22, 2015 6:30 PM
    marklibera marklibera Mar 23, 2015 11:51 PM Flag

    Keebon, actually if you read some of the posts on the e&p MLP boards, there are several posters who think that $40 oil is already priced into these shares and that the distribution cuts are done. Plenty of people still hoping that the knife is falling. Factoids brings a slightly different view in what he focuses on and if you've read any of his work, which extends into BDCs and other income stocks, you can appreciate his diligence.
    Opportunities not taken are not the same as the loss of real capital. There will always be new opportunities. So while my income has suffered somewhat because of the divestiture of some midstreams ,my exposure is way down and I can see how this plays out. Not many people are expecting oil to snap back into the $80's in 2015. And nat gas is a whole other story as many are expecting it to go under $2. For the record, I am looking at WNR in the refinery space but it looked overbought. Also, for the record, I was out of SDLP at $22, or about 4 years of dividends ago. Eating a little bit of principal to replace lost dividends doesn't taste so bad compared to a 50% loss in capital.

  • marklibera by marklibera Mar 23, 2015 8:00 PM Flag

    Talk about bad luck. I bought some this morning. At least I didn't buy it for all my accounts like I normally do.

  • Reply to

    OT: More bad news to come for oil

    by marklibera Mar 22, 2015 6:30 PM
    marklibera marklibera Mar 23, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    Gambler, there is a poster on the i.v. board named Factoids who also writes for s.a. He dives into the data on DCF metrics and compares against analysts projections (which they just get from management) and bond info. He also compares against historical accuracy He has a knew article out on s.a. and based on the data that he is viewing says that people should avoid the e& p MLP sector for now.
    Many energy stocks are bouncing up today (a few e&p names were dropped from the indices last week which caused them to plunge). Some of the recent storage numbers might be temporarily revered as the refineries get busy making gas for the summer driving season. But all rallies in these names should be sold as they hit resistance levels.

  • Reply to

    Investment Strategy next 6 months

    by williamlebotschy Mar 23, 2015 4:56 AM
    marklibera marklibera Mar 23, 2015 9:29 AM Flag

    William and Stagg, first not all CEFs use leverage. Second, there is leverage in ETFs because you have to consider how the ETFs are being held by the funds that are using them. In this market with rates around 0%, the level of leverage is extremely high in almost all instruments.
    The battle between an improving economy vs the spreading of deflation continues. I think interest rate increases are still a ways off, as the Fed's own data shows a slowing economy. The GDP numbers will probably come in weak and inventory levels are high and not likely to be reduced. When businesses build inventory, that shows up as an improvement in GDP, but when that inventory is not turned into sales, businesses stop building inventory.
    So on one hand, the market is trading at high valuation levels, but on the other hand, the economy could be slowing. One would think that a slowing economy would jeopardize companies earnings (along with a higher dollar) and while this is true, a slowing economy takes the risk of an interest rate increase off the table. If rates stay low, then corporations can continue to buy back stock which has been the main driver of their increased earnings. And if rates stay low, then the use of leverage can continue to buy risk assets.

  • Hard to believe, but there may be still more bad news for oil to come. The storage situation has been discussed ad nauseum. The flip side to that argument has been that some of the refineries were on strike, the driving season is still to come and rig counts are coming down. But I just read a piece on a couple of points that I have not heard before as to why production may increase from North Dakota beginning in June. Apparently, ND is suspending a production tax for 2 years starting in June and also has some rule that drilling has to be completed within one year from when it starts. I'm not sure that this news has been discounted by the market.
    I haven't been following the tanker stocks, but assume they have been rallying as the demand for storage increases, leading to higher rates, but if oil prices decline even more and bring the futures curve down even more, I'm wondering if this could lead to even more dumping of oil

  • Reply to

    Pretty bizarre three days

    by griffin.mungus Mar 19, 2015 2:29 PM
    marklibera marklibera Mar 21, 2015 2:55 PM Flag

    And don't forget that Wall Street tells the Treasury what maturities to issue. There is a committee made up of the Primary dealers who "advise" the Treasury on their issuances.

  • marklibera by marklibera Mar 21, 2015 12:10 PM Flag

    The 10 yr is coming back down and is sitting right on its 50 dma. A few more weak economic data points and down it goes. mREITs rallied after the Fed. Nice move in ARI and WMC. WMC is due to declare their divy soon and report book value. Can they keep it at 70 cents?

  • Reply to

    slow stochastic

    by keebon Mar 20, 2015 12:09 PM
    marklibera marklibera Mar 21, 2015 12:00 PM Flag

    Looks like the slow stochastic on HTGC crossed over 20. It did this in January and ran up about $1.50 before topping out. Might be worth a trade to try out this system.

  • Since Kbon is now interested in the slow stochastic technical indicator, here is another good example. Around Feb 25, TSM was hitting a new high, but it was at the top of its trend channel. Not quite overbought by RSM metrics but the MACD was turning down, and it broke under 80 on the SS. Around Mar 9, it broke through its 50 dma but it found support. The SS went under 20. But then it turned up and broke through the 20 level, breaking through the 50 dma. From the time it broke through that 20 level, it has been almost straight up. But now since it is over the 80 level, you have to be careful if it should turn down below 80.
    Like the RSI, maybe the SS isn't 100% perfect, but in this case it worked.
    It's not only about buying the right stocks (which is hard enough), but also about buying them at the right time.

  • Reply to

    OT/MSB

    by jkprice Mar 20, 2015 3:13 PM
    marklibera marklibera Mar 20, 2015 3:30 PM Flag

    Why? did the price of iron ore go up? Did their shipments go up?

  • Reply to

    slow stochastic

    by keebon Mar 20, 2015 12:09 PM
    marklibera marklibera Mar 20, 2015 3:27 PM Flag

    Kee, I haven't gotten into it in that much depth. The theory that was offered was buy when the Slow Stochastic is rising from under the 20 level and sell when it is over 90 and declines to under 90. This is for stocks that are over their 50 dma, so no bottom fishing knife catching. With MIC, this buy signal was registered on Dec 15, but it may have made you sell much too quickly and miss a good rise since Jan.

LMOPX
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