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Targa Resources Partners LP Message Board

marklibera 298 posts  |  Last Activity: 54 minutes ago Member since: Aug 14, 2007
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  • Reply to

    OT: Turning green

    by marklibera 5 hours ago
    marklibera marklibera 54 minutes ago Flag

    Sarge, I got tired of listening to Gambler pump Yahoo so I decided to play along. I bought a call with a $43 strike for $2+ and sold a $48 call for 1+. I can make a maximum of $5 per option if Yahoo goes above 48 or lose the $1+ if it doesn't go above $43. It sounded like a good bet with Yahoo trading at $42 when I put the play on. It's only play money.

  • Reply to

    OT: Turning green

    by marklibera 5 hours ago
    marklibera marklibera 3 hours ago Flag

    I wouldn't worry about the yhoo trade. Better for it to rise after the Baba IPO then to rise before and then sell off on disappointment Based on a recommendation, I have a spread play where I bought Nov 43's and sold Nov 48 calls. I've never done spreads before so I hope it works out.

  • Just read 2 stories that are turning the markets green. First, WSJ Fed reporter Jon Hilsenrath is saying that the Fed is leaving put their language that it will be a "considerable time" before they raise rates, although in the press confernence that follows they will qualify that somewhat. It's pretty sad that trading decisions are based on two words in a Fed statement, but it is what it is. Second, China started a QE program.

  • Reply to

    OT: Yieldco's and fracking article from i.v. board

    by marklibera Sep 15, 2014 12:01 PM
    marklibera marklibera 8 hours ago Flag

    SC4, while the yields are on the low side, they are treated as return of capital for several years. Second, the article said they had 10-15% distribution growth rates for several years. As we have seen with the MLPs and particularly the GPs, it's the growth rate that matters the most. As for the power producers not honoring their contracts, these power producers are very large, investment grade entities.
    Anyway, it's just a thought for more due diligence. We always have to keep looking for new opportunities.

  • Reply to


    by rbgambler99 Sep 15, 2014 1:23 PM
    marklibera marklibera Sep 15, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    Gambler, who really knows what is driving the market on any one day. The Fed will speak on Wednesday and I don't believe they will raise the Fed funds target, at least based on the stats that they keep pointing to. But, some of the hawks don't see the need to continue these extraordinary measures (QE, ZIRP) after 6 years. A return to a normal Fed funds would be about 2% if it is supposed to track inflation. Perhaps this is a little temper tantrum that the big boys are having to warn the Fed not to raise rates. Nonetheless, as long as some of the economic numbers keep showing strength (and they have been mixed) the drumbeat for higher rates will continue at least until we get a stinker number. The 10 year rose recently (which accounts for weakness in mREITs) and is running into resistance. Pension funds are probably taking profits in stocks and buying bonds.
    The other wild card is the Scottish vote on Thursday.
    I would keep YHOO until the Baba offering comes. You've come this far, why not see it through. Stops just tend to get taken out from under you.
    I'm waiting for some buying opportunities and may even nibble at Keebon's SDLP if it gets oversold with RSI under 30.
    The 50 dma on the S&P is 1972 and the 100 dma is 1945. If we break the first, the second is support.

  • A couple of interesting items from the i.v. mlp board. Someone posted an article from S&P on how they rate "yieldco's." Yieldco's are somewhat analogous to MLPs in that they can be formed by a sponsor to take certain cashflowing projects. The yieldco company is not hampered by the MLP rules as far as the type of project and the geographic location so they are being used for renewables like solar and wind. The Yieldco company is an LLC and there is no k-1, and here's the kicker, the dividends are return of capital for a long period. The article mentioned two companies: NYLD and TERP. TERP just came public in July and so they haven't declared their first divy. NYLD pays about 2.6% While some may run from these because of a negative view toward renewables, the artilce said that the yieldco's usually have the right of first refusal to buy projects from their sponsor which leads to projected dividend growth of 10-15% for several years. In a correction, we might get a buying opportunity.
    The second article was a comparison of the flow rates of a couple of different oil wells that were drilled in the same areas by different companies using different amounts of water and sand. The later wells used many multiple amounts more of sand and water and achieved huge increases in flow of oil.

  • Reply to

    Undeniable Positives To Impact Economy

    by casadipace777 Sep 14, 2014 1:49 AM
    marklibera marklibera Sep 15, 2014 11:14 AM Flag

    Jack, I would love to see the stats on retired people that you use to conclude that they are not spending. Maybe those that are in the lower quintiles. But I am sure the story for the upper two-fifths is different. Even with the housing implosion and past stock market busts, many in these groups benefited from rising house prices over the prior 20 years and a rising stock market. Can these more affluent BB carry the load for the rest of their class

  • marklibera by marklibera Sep 15, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    IRM raised their dividend to 47.5 cents (1.90 annually). This is the first "new" dividend rate as a REIT. I expect the stock to be re-priced along the same metrics of other property REITs with a yield of 4% which would equate to around $47.50. Also all the REIT mutual funds will now be buying.

  • Reply to

    Well Mark

    by bobdbeck Sep 12, 2014 12:43 PM
    marklibera marklibera Sep 12, 2014 3:33 PM Flag

    bob, I posted that 6 hours ago. I'm hurt that you aren't reading all of my posts. Guess, it didn't matter in today's bloodbath. But there's still 27 minutes left for the plunge protection team to hit the buy programs.

  • Reply to


    by rbgambler99 Sep 12, 2014 1:34 PM
    marklibera marklibera Sep 12, 2014 2:00 PM Flag

    Gambler, well said. This is the bet as the 10 yr has risen to 2.6% The Fed speaks again next week. Last time rates moved up, they ran into resistance right at the 200 dma. The 200 dma is now 2.65%.
    WMC is getting hammered, part due to the market selloff and part due to the interest rate fear. They should declare their next divy in the next week. I'm expecting a slight rise. The yield is almost 20% at the current price. I have a bunch.
    It's definitely getting bumpy out there. Lots of stocks that don't have fundamental problems are getting sold with the ones that do.

  • Reply to

    Well Mark

    by bobdbeck Sep 12, 2014 12:43 PM
    marklibera marklibera Sep 12, 2014 12:49 PM Flag

    except for HCLP and OILT. Now that OILT was one to grab when it corrected down to the low 40's. Like many, I had it on my screen but couldn't pull the trigger.

  • HCLP is being added to one of the Alerian MLP indices and EQT is being added to another one. HCLP has been bouncing around like a pinball. Just as it looks like it is breaking out, it comes back under $65. Adding it to the index should get it over $65 and keep it there.

  • marklibera by marklibera Sep 12, 2014 8:52 AM Flag

    The market is kind of boring right now (unless you're watching SDRL tank, ba da bing!) so I saw a piece in Barron's about buying call spreads on Yahoo and decided to try it out. I've never played with spreads but if it makes Huff rich enough to travel around the world, then there must be something to it. If it doesn't work out, then I'm coming for Gambler.

  • Reply to

    SDRL----- down again

    by madmax19471952 Sep 11, 2014 11:50 AM
    marklibera marklibera Sep 11, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    This is another example of difficult choices in investing. We all like to think we have a long-term horizon and can ignore short-term fluctuations, but if that was true, then we would not spend so much time looking at our stocks each minute. Oftentimes, by the time we recognize that the trend has turned for our favorite stock, the damage has been done and it is too late to sell. With SDRL, I think the error was thinking that it had overcome the recent issues it was facing. Clearly it had not, but the reconfirming of the divy made some think that the worst was over (one has to always be onguard for false support by management such as announcements of stock buybacks without actually buying stock or immaterial personal buys or other pr related events, like appearances on TV shows.). The stock was overbought in June when its RSI was well over 70. That was the time to sell. Maybe easier said in retrospect, but if you have a system and stick to it, you can't blame it when the stock continues to goes crazy as there is no way to predict that kind of behavior. Sometimes you sell a stock based on good reasons like valuation and then it goes on to become even more overvalued, but you can't expect all stocks to become way overvalued and allow you to exit with a larger than normal profit.
    SDRL is almost oversold now and approaching support at $31. Below that, support is at $28. The question one would have to ask is if you feel the yield compensates you for the risk at this time. There's no harm in waiting until the picture clears -- either the stock finds support or fundamentals stabilize.

  • Reply to


    by bobdbeck Sep 11, 2014 2:06 PM
    marklibera marklibera Sep 11, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    bob, I read the s.a. article that you referred to in a different post. Here is my difficulty with that article. The article makes a big deal about the difference in the interest rate spread that NYMT has versus other mREITs like AGNC and NLY. But the trouble is that NYMT being a non-agency mREIT can use as much leverage. Non-agency mREITs typically only use 3-4 times leverage while agency mREITs use 6-8 times.
    Second, I could be wrong but I do not think a dividend increase is in the future (although I once said that any CFO worth his metal could find a penny or two if they had to). I think the s.a. article depends too much on the GAAP analysis. I'm no accountant, but I know that GAAP accounting, particularly for mREITs that invest in more complicated mortgage backed securities and use VIE's, can skew the earnings report.
    In the 2nd q, NYMT reported on its cashflow statement cash from operations of $16,497. They paid out $37,736 in common stock divies and $2,906 in preferred divies. They had a bunch of unrealized gains and other financings that contributed to their EPS. I think it would be hard for them to increase the divy based on unrealized gains.

  • Reply to


    by bobdbeck Sep 11, 2014 2:06 PM
    marklibera marklibera Sep 11, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    Not worried about an spo? They are due for one since it's been awhile.

  • marklibera marklibera Sep 11, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    Large companies are reporting record profit due primarily to stock buybacks and lower debt costs, although there are plenty of examples of large companies not doing so well. There are always mixed signals, just like on the inflation vs deflation debate.

  • Reply to

    Forget AWLCF, SDRL, UAN....

    by rbgambler99 Sep 10, 2014 3:48 PM
    marklibera marklibera Sep 11, 2014 10:38 AM Flag

    Gambler, if you are expecting a correction, why do you think that the momentum stocks like Yhoo, aapl and BABA are going to get spared? In a correction, the stocks that have risen the most, tend to get hit hardest. Granted there may be one last push up before the switch flips (if it does in fact flip).

  • Reply to

    Squirrely price action on WMC

    by masleym Sep 10, 2014 11:40 AM
    marklibera marklibera Sep 10, 2014 5:40 PM Flag

    Gracie, I'm glad you posed this question again because I have been searching for explanations. If the Fed clearly had no power to raise the Fed funds rate because of the large amount of excess reserves, then you would think someone with stature would call them out on it. But I have not seen anything. The NY Fed website does have a page on how Fed Funds is supposed to work and they indicate that the trading desk adjusts reserves to implement their targeted Fed funds rate. I think this means that the Fed would have to sell bonds to the banks (or reverse repo them) in order to reduce their excess reserves. They could also stop paying interest on excess reserves and thereby encourage the banks to put that money somewhere else to earn a better return. Of course, if they wanted to encourage the banks to increase lending then why did they do QE in the first place if they knew the end result would be higher excess reserves and no inflation. Something doesn't seem right. This goes to my argument that all along the Fed's primary goal was to let the banks fix their balance sheets (and avoid the deflationary collapse in the system) by giving them the opportunity to earn essentially risk-free money by earning interest on their excess reserves or by flipping Treasuries.
    What's interesting in all of this is that the Fed wanted lower interest rates to restart the economy, which they got, but now they want higher inflation which leads to higher interest rates which would seem to undercut the first goal.

  • Reply to

    OT: How about this APL

    by marklibera Sep 10, 2014 3:14 PM
    marklibera marklibera Sep 10, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    Stiefel raised the target price to $40. that could explain the move.

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