SBUX has had a nice run this year and is up over 20%, but it is now at the top end of its channel and overbought. They reported last week and went higher. I would expect it to consolidate its recent gains.
SBUX has started to transform into a dividend growth stock as they have been raising their divy by big percentages and will continue to do so, but the stock is selling at a high p/e ratio.
These boards are not just about pumping one's holdings or buying and holding forever irrespective of the changing circumstances of the company or of the economy or market. There are seldom any one decision stocks which are never meant to be sold. And it's not about thinking that one can run a company better than current management. Management is paid by us shareholders and while you can't blame them for every change in the price of oil or nat gas, they are paid handsomely to manage this company and that includes making the right decisions about hedging, debt levels, the right acquisitions and operating the assets that they bought using our capital.
You say you like the company and its distribution, but do you know the risk of the distribution being continued or eliminated, or how it stakes up to other similar stocks? Many posters on this board have offered their opinions on those topics with just a bit more details than a simple opinion of liking or not liking the stock.
Pale, I have traded it successfully before on the dips below the 20 level on the slow stochastics. It's basically in a slight uptrending range between the mid 70's and mid 80's. I might try to trade it again to see if this slow stochastic thing works again.
I remember that post about Goodrich and took a look. I decided to wait until things got worse. With the recent bounce in oil, that may not happen soon. I still think oil will resume its decline once we get through the spring season. I mentioned an article on the North Dakota tax incentives that start up in June, so we'll have to wait until then to see if the article was bunk or not.
yea, but Walker also bought in December in the mid $20's so I wouldn't necessarily base my decisions on following him. Plus he also said they would sell the Utica acreage for over $1 billion and that didn't happen either.
Nice yoy raise of 17%. EQM raised their guidance which should be good for the IPO of their gp. TRGP and WGP had good increases too, and I kinda wish I held onto both.
I could be wrong, but "sell in May" usually comes if the market has really increased in the Jan to April period. The market (using the S&P 500 as the base) hasn't done much since hitting a high in Dec, but the slope has still been up. Is this just a pause that refreshes or a sign that the market is rolling over? One thing is that with all of the alphabet soup --QE, ZIRP, HFTs and ETFs -- it's difficult to know if the old rules mean anything anymore.
What is clear is that money is starting to flow to other countries where the chances of higher returns are greater. The US market has more than tripled since its March 2009 low, so how much more can it go up, especially if it is trading near all-time high valuations. Sure, many US stocks are global so their earnings might still increase, but it is the rate of increase of those earnings (assuming that a high dollar doesn't actually hurt earnings which it has in some cases) which might matter more.
One thing that hasn't happened is that the decline in oil prices has not led to increased consumer spending, but the energy sector, which at one time was 12% of the S&P, has suffered. Since spiking in Dec, the transports are down. Are the rails bringing the Transport sector down because of expectations that oil shipments by rail will suffer?
The next 3 weeks are prime earnings reporting. We will see if the market thinks earnings meet the low bar
Bob, my problem with these types of articles is that they always seem to mention the company's hedge book as being good without necessarily describing it or comparing it to their competitors. Line was supposed to be protected by its hedges but then it turned out that they had also sold out of the money puts, which sank in value when prices dropped. All e&p MLPs are supposed to hedge, but MEMP is routinely mentioned as having the best percentage into 2016.
You would think that sophisticated investors would know the difference between distribution coverage which is based on their accounting numbers (although it is a non-GAAP term) and ROC which is a concept determined from their tax info (earnings and profits as determined under the tax rules).
I guess it was a tad bit premature to announce that everything was ok with corporate earnings and that the market would just continue to power ahead as if there was nothing to worry about whatsoever. Maybe it's just a Friday selloff and it will be easily overturned when some good corp earnings get posted next week. The good news is that the Fed isn't raising rates anytime soon so even if we get a mild correction, buyers will emerge once again, just at a lower level.
I mentioned CSCO after seeing their CEO interview with Charlie Rose. He mentioned that more and more of CSCO's business is in cyber security. The stock has had a nice run up, but I think it looks to be rolling over a bit and could retest the $26 area. It looks like that is the previous pattern for CSCO -- run up and then come back to the area from which it broke out before resuming an up. But that $26 must hold.
Apple just broke below its 50 dma after hugging that line for sometime. It too has a similar pattern that it showed before. Apple ran up to a high in Dec, but then spent the next 2 months going sideways to down, and even broke below its 50 dma before finding support. It could do the same thing again before finding support around $117. As I said before, the iwatch is not really a factor. That said Apple usually doesn't have any problem beating their earnings and the stock is still not expensive.
I stated before that KCAP chart looked like a loser when some were chasing its high yield and I was right. It could bounce since it has been hammered, but it must have sold off for a reason.
Two WSJ articles on oil production and one on the Fed not raising rates. One article pointed out that the oil production numbers and projections have been all over the place, but stated that if prices keep rising, more production will come. Seems like OPEC will fill any production decline from the US. While the article said that production slowed in the Bakken, it didn't mention anything about the North Dakota tax incentives that begin in June which may have the effect of raising production there.
The article on the Fed said that the weak economic data is making some Fed members rethink raising rates (what a surprise there). Of course that is going to be good for the stock market (unless you are banking on rates going up) as continued low rates should overcome any weakness associated with earnings misses, even if the earnings misses may cause a temporary pullback.
News item out that Saudi oil production increased to a record high. This bounce in oil is probably short-lived and due to some demand pick-up from the refineries getting back to work.
Ed, I bailed on AM, TRGP, WGP, MWE and a few others. I bailed too late after a lot of profit was given back and too early to catch the bounce, but at the time it looked like the midstreams in particular were clinging to estimates that were too high. I was hoping to re-enter TRGP, but now it has run up a bit on another article mentioning it as a takeover play. To me, it looks like it will hit resistance soon.
Getting ready to shed ARP. I now have lots of cash to buy both TEGP and EQGP (the gp's of TEP and EQM) when they come public. I never added back O.
If I recall the investors in BBEP bought convertible preferred (and probably shorted the common to lock in an arbitrage). There's a difference between liking the company as an investor higher up in the capital structure and liking the common stock where it was trading. But Pale you are right that often the worst positions stocks have the greatest bounce (at least initially) once their survival is no longer threatened.
Two problems here. The unemployment numbers don't seem to have these job losses factored in yet, but considering that the unemployment number is based off of a survey, it's not surprising. I'm not seeing the decline in production that people are referring to, at least looking at EIA reports. Just because the industry is laying off people does not mean that those wells stop pumping.
What is this decline in production that you speak of? I thought the production and supply were both still rising. There might be a blip of a decline now that the refineries are back up and preparing for driving season, but as the price rises that keeps production up. Then there is the North Dakota tax incentives that kick in in June.
On a chart of $WTIC, I see resistance around $55.
This rise in oil and the rise in e&p MLP prices is going to allow these companies to raise some equity to pay down their debt levels. That may take the pressure off of Fall borrowing base re-determinations and the threat of further distribution cuts for now. But how far can the stocks rally? I can't imagine their yields getting close to 12%. Maybe slightly under 15%, but no lower especially if hedging for 2016 doesn't improve. Meanwhile nat gas is still in the doldrums and could go lower still.