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Enterprise Products Partners L.P. Message Board

marklibera 317 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 11, 2014 3:21 PM Member since: Aug 14, 2007
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  • Reply to

    ot: COW

    by marklibera Apr 11, 2014 1:51 PM
    marklibera marklibera Apr 11, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    Yep, the old adage that if you are hearing about it on the news, the investment play is already over.

  • Reply to

    SDRL DOWNGRADED

    by staggman99 Apr 11, 2014 8:13 AM
    marklibera marklibera Apr 11, 2014 3:19 PM Flag

    Another negative article on SDRL from Barrons. Geez, you would think this stock was named Facebook or General Motors. There have been more stories and comments about SDRL in the last 2 months than probably the last 5 years. Who knew it was so closely followed.

  • marklibera by marklibera Apr 11, 2014 1:51 PM Flag

    Saw a news item that the drought in the western US is having an effect on beef prices. After running up and becoming overbought, COW has now backed off to its 50 dma. Anyone ever play this ETF?

  • Reply to

    OT: Market cracking?

    by marklibera Apr 10, 2014 3:11 PM
    marklibera marklibera Apr 11, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    JK, it reminds me of the scene from Animal House. Blame can be assessed at both parties, who are both wholly owned subsidiaries of crony capitalists, but that obscures the fact that this entire rally has been built on easy money and is bound to blow up at some point. To think that we could have a slow return to "normal" (whatever that is) is folly. Anyone who is familiar with the history of finance and monetary policy knows it all ends the same way. It's just the timing that is different.

  • Reply to

    SDRL DOWNGRADED

    by staggman99 Apr 11, 2014 8:13 AM
    marklibera marklibera Apr 11, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    Stagg, we have all made the error of confusing a stock with a company. A company can be a great operation, but it's stock could be overvalued (and vice versa). The fundamentals never tell you the inflection point when the sentiment is changing on the stock, but the technicals can help you determine when it is overvalued or when it has bottomed out.
    They say never fall in love with a stock and never get too confident in your past investment performance as the market is the great humbler. Just when you think investing is easy, the market proves that it is not.

  • Reply to

    HPT

    by helmetguru123 Apr 9, 2014 8:47 AM
    marklibera marklibera Apr 11, 2014 9:01 AM Flag

    Ed, I'm waiting for Antero's midstream IPO which should come in May or June and hopefully with a good price if we get a nice selloff. Also, MWE is sitting right on support and that could give way leading to a good buying opportunity.

  • Reply to

    OT: Market cracking?

    by marklibera Apr 10, 2014 3:11 PM
    marklibera marklibera Apr 11, 2014 8:58 AM Flag

    Ed, I have been waiting to add some closed end muni funds, but they also might get hit despite the plunge in Treasury yields just because they tend to be illiquid.

  • Reply to

    SDRL DOWNGRADED

    by staggman99 Apr 11, 2014 8:13 AM
    marklibera marklibera Apr 11, 2014 8:57 AM Flag

    Bob, I agree except with respect to timing. The way these pullbacks typically play out is that the highly leveraged names (biotechs etc) get hit first, but the selling spreads to the quality names because they are more liquid and have to get sold to meet margin calls, hedge fund redemptions etc. But you are right that once this downdraft is finished there will be opportunities in the quality companies with good yields. Just don't jump in too quickly thinking they are immune to selling pressure.

  • Reply to

    heading south

    by rjraecek Apr 9, 2014 2:00 PM
    marklibera marklibera Apr 10, 2014 6:47 PM Flag

    There is almost no way to know for sure whether a stock has reached an inflection point other than by trying to decipher the technicals. Rarely do they ring a bell that sentiment is changing on a stock and the analysts are always late (both in removing buys and adding buys -- they are too busy getting their big clients out or in first before they publish to the rest of us).
    MWE had a great rally in 2013. I never buy a stock hitting overbought levels (RSI over 70) because they invariably come back. But sometimes they break their upward channels so you need to pay attention. Clearly sentiment changed on MWE. At first the market was giving them the benefit of the doubt on the delay in raising the distribution by more than small amounts. Now the market is saying "show me." When they do come through, there will be plenty of time to jump back in.

    Right now, MWE is sitting on support and with the general market getting weak as we head into May, I bet support breaks. If $62 breaks, next support is around $57, but if this market correction starts to snowball, it could see $52 which is where it broke out and retested in March 2013. I wouldn't add until the overall market stabilizes. Opportunities are made up faster than losses.

    I am not selling here because selling an MLP causes too many adverse tax consequences to me, the yield is not bad and I do believe in the longer story.

  • Reply to

    Nice safe feeling

    by bleedingindividendhell Apr 10, 2014 2:27 PM
    marklibera marklibera Apr 10, 2014 6:14 PM Flag

    And you just figured this out now? When it was going up day after day after day, based on nothing but QE, it was normal and not something to be worried about because you were winning. Welcome to the casino where the house always wins unless you go home early.

  • Reply to

    OT: Market cracking?

    by marklibera Apr 10, 2014 3:11 PM
    marklibera marklibera Apr 10, 2014 6:10 PM Flag

    stagg, actually jk called it before that, but the pressures have been building for some time. I think we have a ways to go down and we could break through the previous support level. The fact that the bounce from the release of the Fed's dovish minutes did not hold for more than 1 day signals a weak market. We could go down a significant amount and still technically be in a bull market. Who knows whether it will be better to buy quality stocks that get hit or some of the momentum stocks that get absolutely pummeled. In the past the worst quality stocks seem to bounce back more because they get hit harder and because all of the hedge fund money plays those names, while the retail trade sticks with quality. I'm worried because we are going into May and last year we skipped the sell in May and go away, so we could make up for it this year by going down twice as much to make up. There is some type of crazy blood moon coming in a few weeks.

  • marklibera by marklibera Apr 10, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    I'm usually wrong in predicting market declines, so to try to reverse recent declines, I am going to post about the market looking like it is going to crack.
    The biotechs and go-go names are getting slaughtered and it isn't even May yet. If this thing gets snowballing, it could be rather violent and its doubtful that the Fed is going to be able to reverse the taper. Be careful trying to buy falling knives.

  • Reply to

    Taking Profits

    by rllsrl Apr 9, 2014 5:09 PM
    marklibera marklibera Apr 10, 2014 8:59 AM Flag

    It has been a monster, but if you look at a chart, it is still in an upward sloping channel. You can easily draw this "channel" on some of the charting sites like StockCharts. Occasionally it will get into overbought terrritory on an RSI basis as it did in Nov and Dec, but then it corrects and stays in the "channel." EVen with the recent spurt, it is still not overbought on a technical basis. Of course, we are approaching May and the "sell in May and go away" could effect all of the market. In addition, sometimes stocks will pause as they hit "round" numbers like $50.
    I'm holding for now, but will see what happens through the summer.

  • Reply to

    Is K-1 Final?

    by hobbycat01 Mar 24, 2014 6:13 PM
    marklibera marklibera Apr 9, 2014 4:57 PM Flag

    I could be wrong about this, but I thought the designation "Final" is used when the partnership terminates and that is the last K-1. There have been instances in the past when an MLP had to amend their K-1's ( I think WPZ had some issue a couple of years back) but generally this is not like mREITs, BDCs and the like in which the characterization of a dividend or capital gain is changed resulting in an amended 1099.

  • Reply to

    HPT

    by helmetguru123 Apr 9, 2014 8:47 AM
    marklibera marklibera Apr 9, 2014 1:05 PM Flag

    Yes, buying on a pullback. But you did not say that in your first post. Timing is as important as selection. Just look at those who might have bought SDRL or SFL when they topped.

  • Reply to

    HIGH YIELDS FOR THE FAST TRACK...!

    by staggman99 Apr 9, 2014 10:36 AM
    marklibera marklibera Apr 9, 2014 12:59 PM Flag

    I own a couple of Ed's stocks, but they are not up as much as those numbers suggest. For example, TRGP was in the mid $80's at the beginning of the year and is now $101, and that is not a 93% gain as I calculate it.
    Are these YTD gains annualized or is the YTD going back to the period starting 1 year earlier?
    I thought YTD refers to the return from the beginning of the calendar year.
    My calculation of the YTD gain in STAG also differs. Maybe those calculators that you use have assumptions built in (i.e. as to reinvestment of dividends, timing etc.) that explain these differences.

  • marklibera by marklibera Apr 9, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    Broke under its 50 dma. Once again, in retrospect ,it appears that the RSI over 70 that registered in early March, followed by the cross of the MACD lines called the trend down.

  • Reply to

    HPT

    by helmetguru123 Apr 9, 2014 8:47 AM
    marklibera marklibera Apr 9, 2014 10:43 AM Flag

    Raising the divy is usually a sign that fundamentals are good and improving. That being said, last year this stock approached $31 into May and then went into free-fall falling some 8 points in 2 months. Could the market have already anticipated this good news on the fundamentals? Barron's already had a good story about HPT. The RSI is approaching the overbought level.
    There is a certain amount of comfort buying a stock with improving fundamentals and a good yield, but too many times I have seen that the market has already priced that it. Same thing happened with your other pick, MPW, and that stock is still struggling to get past $13. Granted they are different companies in different subsectors.

  • Reply to

    o/t BX--Blackstone is over sold

    by madmax19471952 Apr 9, 2014 9:35 AM
    marklibera marklibera Apr 9, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    Sarge, I don't know. It seems to me that all of these private-equity type stocks (BX, KKR, OZM etc) have already had nice runs over the last year. Looks like BX is a triple from their lows of a few years ago. Clearly, the yield is pulling in investors who have migrated away from mREITs. At the top of the last cycle before the implosion, BX went public, top-ticking the last bull market. I think it is just getting back to the price at which it came public.

  • Reply to

    Pretty funny post on new IPO for GasLog:

    by bobdbeck Apr 8, 2014 9:05 AM
    marklibera marklibera Apr 9, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    How much of their business is subprime auto loans? Plenty of stories about how much of the new car loan business is subprime.

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