Nice pick if you got it. Looks like one of their buyback programs finally kicked in. But the next trip down might not be good. Everything is a short term rental from here out.
I go on vacation for one week and what happens.
Seriously, this was all very predictablye, not in the match that eventually lit the fire, but the dry grass that has been around the forest for a few years now. And just like the redwoods that I saw on Saturday, nothing grows to the sky forever.
I don't know whether to hope for a crash to provide a safe(r) entry point or whether to hope for a bounce so that I can sell any remaining positions.
That's absurd. Are you suggesting that they would pay for it with preferred yielding close to 20%? Unless the Price to EBITDA of the acquisition is less than 4 times or a 25% yield, they would be overpaying because their currency is priced so poorly. Stop dreaming and face reality that these guys don't know what they are doiing.
Well if he did, why did he buy it much higher. Why didn't he wait to buy his full position at $2. Why didn't he wait until they suspended the distribution. He was hoodwinked into believing the ATLS distributon projections, which were revised downward 4 times.
The entire market cap is less than $450mm. I think they have $500mm on the credit line plus the $60mm in cash. There's no acquisition at these prices that earns as much as buying back stock, but Walker still wants his divy since he is down almost $15 on his Dec purchase.
Looks like the stock has stopped going down. Goes ex-div tomorrow. Stock is $11.74 as I post, so if the market maker marks it down 31 cents tomorrow, that would be right around the 50 dma at $11.41, so depending where stops are placed, there could be some additional movement lower. Wells issued a good report on it and sees $14-15.
When and if that happens, there will be plenty of time to jump in, probably from a lower point. It's not going to jump 10 points in one day on that news.
vin, I don't own KMI, but I think you are right to consider selling, but only after it stops bouncing up. I have had to make this selling decision in too many stocks this year and it is always much more difficult to find the exact point to sell when you have a stock that has plunged like KMI. We know stocks can get oversold and bounce, but sometimes the bounce doesn't occur until it has declined more. KMI is bouncing and it's first test is right here at the level just under $34. After that, the resistance is at $35. There will be resistance all the way up and we don't know which resistance level will hold. One technical metric to look at is the slow stochastic which is rising and is now 52. If that starts to turn down, then I would sell. Otherwise, keep holding until the slow stochastic gets to 80.
I wouldn't be too quick to buy KMI back, at least not until mid December. It is likely to be a big tax-loss selling candidate, so the selling pressure will resume starting in Nov. And of course, this October may be volatile. good luck.
Well, I admit it was difficult because everyone including the analysts were so upbeat and management almost guaranteed a Utica deal would be done and the acreage was worth more than $15k per acre. There was a poster named Johnny Trader and he called it correctly, not only about the Utica deal not getting done, but also about the stock falling off of a cliff technically. But that's the point about knowing management's record over a longer period of time. Back then, I had no reason to think Walker was dreaming of pie in the sky. Now, I have the benefit of having learned that lesson.
Well then let's look at it. There's a table in the earnings release with the EBITDAX but it includes the discontinued operations for 6 months which came in at $16mm (almost 100% higher yoy). So subtracting that out, you get $91mm and the DCF is similarly reduced to 36mm. They paid out distributions of $50mm. What's that coverage ratio come too? Looks like 0.8 to me.
As for people being too negative, there are always some Alfred E. Newman's on these boards who keep looking for the unicorn. I only wish there were a few more negative posters back when they were failing to sell the Utica acreage.
You are confused. ATLS has suspended its distribution until 2016. So he has not been getting paid on his ATLS holdings(after the effective date of the spinoff).. I think he does own some ARP units and some of the preferred units in ATLS, but he's mad because they promised a large distribution from ATLS and then suspended it.
ken, two problems with your argument. First,is that ARP is primarily a nat gas company. (And that argument is used by its defenders every time ARP goes down with the price of oil). You say there is a finite amount of oil, yet in the last 5-10 years, look at all the new shale basins that have been discovered, and that's not even including the rest of the world and the Arctic. Maybe not infinte, but finite doesn't mean expiring in the next 3 years or by the time ARP has to deal with its debt covenants. I agree with you that no one knows where the prices will be because of geopolitical events, but we do know that there are tons of supply that come out each time the price jumps a bit. You can blame it on fear and panic, but debt is real and the ability to comply with the debt covenants is a real risk. The bankers gave them a pass until next year when the covenants get stepped down.
He's a unitholder. I don't think that gives him any rights to change the GP or the GP's management. He may be about to find out the definition of roach motel.
Ed, I'm back in WGP but now underwater. Made a nice profit last year and they still raised their distribution 37% yoy. Thought it would get a bounce, but now I'm watching it closely.