kee, I think they did an offering back in Nov or Dec before the merger closed. If you read the mlpguy blog, you will see that many MLPs are doing spo's and bond offerings. There is an old saying that "you raise capital when you can, not when you need it because it might not be available when you really need it."
As for management competence, they have been real good operators of their business. I've listened to a few of their calls and they are straight shooters (in contrast to the ATLS guys). But I think even the best operators didn't see the plunge coming in commodity prices. Not sure why you think there should be a class action suit against TRGP. If anyone deserves to be sued its the ATLS spinoff for projecting their distribution at $2.20 and then changing it TWO WEEKS after the merger. That stock is going under $5 with another reverse to follow.
Not in front of the Fed. While if you bet right, you could be a winner (with any stock) if the Fed decision goes right for stocks, but why take that chance (unless you hedge)?
As I said before when I booked my profit in TRGP, I liked the company, but I thought that their guidance was based on commodity prices that were too high. I would rather wait to see if they hit their guidance or miss. Misses are punished more severely than hits are rewarded.
As for the ETE takeover, that's another lesson in not letting taxes have too much influence on your investment decisions. I had over a double in less than 1 year, but it would have been taxed at my ordinary rate and put me through the ACA additional tax on investments threshold. I had to get to November for long-term treatment.
Many think TRGP could be acquired at some point, probably when we get through this cycle, but it could also by a buyer of MWE.
I could be wrong on TRGP and miss a bounce, but I am ok with that.
And Zacks is iffy at best. I don't know why people post Zacks or Cramer recommendations like they add to the discussion. The real investors on this board, know the #$%$ from those who are just trying (in vain) to be relevant.
First, you have no idea what my assets are. And no, Stagg, you can't verify your assets on a message board unless you foolishly posted your tax return and financial statement with your real name. Besides the point, it doesn't matter. Investing is not a competition between individual investors. It is you who resorts to pulling out his ___ to measure. Typically 3rd grade bully action.
Unlike you, I don't come to these boards for adoration I have views to offer and some relevant experience, and I have learned from others who post more relevant info than just recapping Cramer or Fast Money.
As for getting out of nat gas and oil, many of us made that mistake. But your arguments were not persuasive at the time, and I note that if you were so sure, why didn't you short the sector? The only point you kept making over and over again was that you didn't like LINE (which I avoided until their SEC dispute was resolved -- but why let the facts get in the way when you can make accusations) and that you owned MLPL because you couldn't deal with K-1's. If you are so smart, why can't you do your own taxes?
One common thing among posters on these boards is that we all have had the experience of holding a stock too long. I try to offer ways to avoid those mistakes and you offer what you offer. BTW, I did sell TRGP, WGP, MWE and APL, all with gains, but not because of anything you said. And I did cut my losses early in SDLP, AM, CMLP and HCLP, but not because of anything you said.
So get off my back Stagg, and go rent a room with Sarge where you can be like the chipmunks Chip and Dale and pat each other on the back.
Kee, two points. NRZ is a mortgage REIT that specializes in excess servicing. Second, they also own a portfolio of consumer and other loans with their investment in Springleaf. In the Q3 earnings call, they mentioned a huge re-securitization transaction in which they booked a huge profit. Consumer and nonagency mortgages do better when the economy is growing (people getting jobs can pay their bills and use more credit etc.).
However, the market can make the mistake of treating all REITs and mREITs the same when reacting to Fed announcements, even if certain of the subsector in this sector actually perform better when rates are rising. But such overreactions can create buying opportunities.
Finally, no one walks on water and the guys running NRZ did have a near death experience with NCT when the financial crisis came. So you can't just blindly follow anyone.
Merovingian, welcome to the board. I mentioned ARI a couple of weeks ago when they did their spo. Looks like it is finally digested. At this point in the cycle, commercial usually starts to outperform residential. But the wildcard is that the Fed could spook the market Wednesday. The stock has a great chart.
Kee, maybe you misread what I wrote. The 2 areas with the greatest inflows are Western European stock AND bond funds, so yes it would be a good time to buy a European stock fund. I bought the Wisdom Tree Hedged European Stock fund (HEDJ) a few weeks back and mentioned that over the weekend. in my post "Europe and Japan."
I think it's too early still JIm, unless you are just playing for a technical bounce. The Fed decision on Wednesday could cause gyrations either way in the market. Some e&p MLPs are being dropped from the Alerian indices so they are selling off, but they could get a bounce when this selling abates. Spring is coming and that is likely to cause a drop in nat gas prices, but before driving season causes an increase in demand for oil. April is borrowing base redeterminations for many e&p firms, but many could skate by. I think the Q1 earnings report should shed more light on where they are going.
Maybe its better to play options instead. Calls are probably cheap and puts are probably expensive.
Just saw a nice chart on zero hedge that shows the flow of funds into the different world stock and bond indices going back over the years and including to date for 2015. The top 2 inflows are into Western European stock and bond funds. Big loser is Emerging market bond funds. Funds are flowing out of US equities, but still in to US bonds and high yield bonds at good paces.
Now if they only published a chart that showed the returns on these different indices we could see the correlation between fund flows and returns.
Yep. Real risk it goes under $5 and then they have to do another reverse split, which only invites more shorting.
Stagg, you are the only poster that I have made sarcastic remarks about. Most of this thread is about responding to your attacks on me, with facts.
This whole dispute started when I (and others) challenged you on SDRL, your ceaseless pumping of your holdings and bragging about your finances which can't be verified on a message board.
Bob, another example of why you can't take every article or mention on TV as gospel. This guy is obviously talking his book so that has to be considered in the overall evaluation. But sometimes these stories can move a stock (and create an opportunity)
kee, the hard part when someone challenges one of your holdings is that the normal reaction is to get defensive and let your ego take over, making you impervious to the risks that are being pointed out. Sometimes your decision can be the right one, but your timing is off, or sometimes your timing is on, and you get fooled into thinking that the stock is a good pick when really it was a general market increase that was the reason for the increase in the stock.
Stagg, now who is making things up. For the record, I followed many of the posters on this and other boards into LINE, and PSEC. Keebon is the first one who mentioned SDLP and Bob was high on NADL. But that's the risk that I keep pointing out -- its called confirmation basis and keeps investors from making the scrutiny that is needed because they feel the safety of others and yes I have fallen into that trap too many times because so much of investing can be emotional. Everyone has some stock that has not worked out and most readily admit it. As for the royalty trusts, I was an early investor in PER, CHKR and SDT, but then I realized these high yield vehicles were destined to go lower. Luckily I got out at much higher levels and bought puts several times. Ask Rogers how many posts I have made on the CHKR warning about that and not to be enticed by the high yield.
Stagg, I was the general counsel for a publicly traded company so don't tell me about working in high levels of finance. That doesn't make me a better investor than anyone and I have never claimed otherwise, but it has exposed me to some things that a farmer may not know.
And here you go again with the inconsistencies. Now you are defending SDRL? The stock is down 75% from where you were pumping it. Now who doesn't know the difference between profit and loss. The only energy stock that I think Sarge owns is KMI and I have never owned that or recommended it so where do you get off saying he followed me into it?
And you are guilty of injecting poiitics into these boards with your constant talk about ethanol subsidies (or mandates as you like to pretend there is a difference) and your tirades against companies for moving jobs overseas, for not paying what you think are high enough taxes and for not paying enough in wages (unless it's a company you own).
And then you claim that you don't name call or attack me personally. Holier than thou.
Kee, I first heard of APL on the old Fording Canadian Coal board where a poster named Sport first mentioned it after they had mentioned they were going to restart their distribution after having eliminated it due to a hedge disaster. I think Vin, DH and Bob all owned it in the low teens. We enjoyed several years of rising distributions and at least a double if not a triple in share price. Someone on the APL board mentioned ATLS and the leverage they had as the gp and owner of the IDRs. ATLS then spun off ARP and retained the gp and IDRs in ARP.. ATLS had a great run from $11 to the mid $50's with rising distributions, but there were some investors who remembered how it came to be that APL had to eliminate their distribution in the first place and expressed their concerns with ATLS management. But because MLPs were hot and paying high yields, the operational underperformance at both APL and ARP got buried in the euphoria. I think Wells stopped covering them because they were conflicted out as an adviser and underwriter.
It goes to show you that when things are going well with a stock, that is the time to be more vigilant and heighten the scrutiny.
A Neuberger Berman Fund: Adding Gains, Curbing Pains
Relevant portion below:
“We’re shorting things that look more expensive than their peers and face competitive threats,” says Kantor.
One such stock is Consolidated Edison (ED), which Kantor began shorting last March, following a fatal natural-gas explosion in New York City’s East Harlem. The stock, which was trading at about $55 a share prior to the explosion, didn’t suffer after the event and recently was trading above $60. But Kantor doesn’t think Con Ed is out of the woods. “If they’re found responsible, that will put them in the penalty box with regulators,” he says, noting that similar tragedies have resulted in years of repercussions for other utilities, such as PG&E (PCG) in California.
Exactly Bob. One just doesn't know what they will say, as oppose to what they will do. Either way, there is potential for an overreaction and an opportunity.
Stagg, there is a fine difference between pumping and recommending a stock and I am sorry that you don't understand the difference. Let me explain it to you as I see it. I would define pumping a stock as continually posting about a stock without offering any new information about the company's fundamentals or technicals, operations or valuations or other reason for why someone is buying or continuing to hold the stock. For example, many investors like to post that a stock is going to pay out a dividend, but it is a common reaction for a stock to decline after the ex-date, usually by more than the dividend paid. Many mREITs issue spo's when their stock prices get above a certain amount over their book value. Some novice investors don't know this and could make the mistake of following someone into a stock only to see it decline. I hate to keep coming back to it, but you insisted that SDRL had "good color" and I criticized you because that term is amorphous. A reader might have thought that you had analyzed SDRL's balance sheet and their book of business, but you missed entirely the violent change in the energy sector and it turned out that SDRL had very "bad color." Gambler made similar comments to you all during SDRL's decline. Just recently you criticized managements who are paid too much, but when I offered that many holders of PSEC criticize that management, you had no response to that specific issue.. Further, how many people followed you into that Brazilian fertilizer company because you are a farmer and they thought you understood it, You yourself later confessed you thought it might be a scam.
I have said it over and over, the mistakes many investors make is falling in love with a stock and not seeing the risks that others may see and appreciate. No one can become an expert in every stock, so that's why it takes others to point out POSSIBLE risks.