Ed, ATLS finally resumed some distribution growth, but the increases at APL and ARP were disappointing. If ATLS was priced like the premier GPs like WGP, TRGP, ETE and WMB (i.e. sub 3% yields) it would trade over $70. I understand they had to rebuild coverage at both APL and ARP. Cooperman keeps pounding the table on ARP but it is still yielding over 11% while every other e&p MLP is heading toward 8%. Meanwhile if APL traded like MWE, it would be $50 instead of $36. One analyst on last quarter's APL call said their plants in the Permian were worth as much as the whole company. I think the Cohen's have to do something. They should be a seller instead of a buyer. I'm holding because I think a deal comes.
Meanwhile my switch of some APL for MMP resulted in a 16 point or 30% gain.
Bob, you may want to borrow Stagg's Total Return calculator to compare ETE versus ETP. Or just look at the charts. My cost on ETE is around $17 (a mere triple) while ETP is up about 30-40%. I think we bought around the same time (I bought ETE and ETP around the same time, but sold all of the ETP and held some ETE). My yield on original cost is now around 8% while the yield on your cost of ETP is about the same.
At the time I bought ETE, the yield difference between it and ETP was about 4%. Over 5 years, that's 20%, but ETE has outperformed on share price by some 300%.
Sarge, MPW and PBT are apples and oranges. I don't think you can really compare the two as they are in different sectors. PBT is a royalty trust so depletion is an issue. Some of the old royatly trusts have dates or other triggers when they terminate. it's distributions tend to fluctuate with the price of the commodity, which is good when global strife juices the price of oil. On the other hand, MPW can grow its dividend by acquiring more properties and by the increases in rents. I'm surprised the MPW hasn't rebounded more, but that may be because investors had shifted into more cyclical names like hotel and industrial REITs where a stronger economy may help. With evidence that the economy could slow, investors could shift back.
Bob, the MLP announcements are rolling in. Here are some:
APL raised 1 cent.
ETE raised 2 cents.
Huge percentage increases at WGP, TRGP, PAGP and MMP.
Just to give an idea of the leverage associated with GPs. ETP's increase was 2 cents on a 93 cent base, while its gp, ETE raised 2 cents on a 36 cent base.
The previous posts that you mention that talked about "Capital Losses" were basically an attempt to determine what an investor's Total Return was if they had purchased the stock at the IPO. They tried to measure the dividends received over this time against the appreciation/depreciation in the stock price (i.e. capital gain or capital loss).
You might want to take a look at the charts to see how MMP has compared to KMP over any period. I think the difference over 5 years is some 300% (based on Yahoo charts). That 4% difference in yield (which by the way is the difference today and not a difference in original cost basis if one had purchased 5 years ago) doesn't seem to make up for the difference in stock price performance.
The better run MLPs are able to put together business plans that lead to distribution increases which lead to stock price increases. So far CMLP has not been able to deliver on the distribution increases. They just announced another flat quarter of no increase.
You are wrong. Never trust Yahoo Finance info. Look at the EPD website where they show that in fact the distribution was adjusted for the 2-1 stock split back in 2002.
Upstream: ARP, EVEP, BBEP, VNR, LNCO, AR(not an MLP), warrants and preferred on MHR (not an MLP)
Midstream: APL, MWE, EPD, EPB, WPZ, MMP CMLP
GPs: ATLS, TRGP, WGP PAGP
Frac sand: HCLP
stagg, I haven't heard much about NSLP. There's been a ton of MLPs that have come public in the last year and the sector has really caught fire. I'm not sure it's because investors are on board with the energy boom or if they are just chasing anything with yield that is not related to mortgages or lending where a surprise hike in interest rates (like last year's taper tantrum) may have scared some away. Doing a quick look, it looks like NSLP's fields are mostly in OK and not in one of the "hot" shale plays like the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken or Marcellus/Utica. However, one of their presentations mentioned a high % of liquids in one of their recent acquisitions. It is the high liquids concentrations that are benefiting explorers.
I have so many MLPs and so many e&p MLPs that it would take a lot for me to invest in another unless I got rid of one of the ones that I own (BBEP, VNR, EVEP -- I also own some LNCO). Some have commented that prices are getting a bit lofty in the space, so that may mean that NSLP has some room to catch up.
Good luck if you invest in NSLP. I'll have to keep an eye on it.
Stagg, I'm back after a weeks vacation.
As I said, I was initially attracted to the oil and gas MLP sector because of the growth prospects and the yield. I've learned a lot from many of the postings on the i.v. board and the many company presentations. There are lots of ways to play the different shale regions and the different subsectors. Liquids are being moved overseas and chemical companies are building plants in the US to take advantage of the cheap and plentiful natural gas. This is a long-term story.
The one issue is that the stocks with the best prospects have been bid up and aren't cheap.
I've read some good things about MEMP. They just closed a very large acquisition of some 900mm so they will need to raise a significant amount of equity and term the debt out. Most MLPs try to use a mix of 50/50 debt and equity, so by that metric they would need to raise some 400-500mm. At $22 per share that's some 18 mm shares. The current spo is about 8.6mm shares. I think the need for equity is going to weigh on the shares for a bit of time. Some think that they will announce a dividend increase soon, but I wonder if they could afford that now with the new share issuance.
William, this offering has been anticipated as MEMP made a 800-900mm recent huge acquisition that they put on their credit line.. I would have expected that they would have needed to raise some $400mm in equity and the balance in debt (most MLPs try to use 50% debt and 50% equity to fund acquisitions). I could be wrong because I don't follow this that closely, but I would expect that they still need to raise another 200-300mm in equity after this offering.. Looks like they had about 60+mm shares prior to this spo, so that means at least another 10 mm shares to go. The possible future issuances may keep a lid on MEMP shares in the short term.
Other posters have been very positive on MEMP and this acquisition.
Stagg, as we have seen over the last few years, it is very difficult to try to time a correction. However, that doesn't mean that they won't come. But with so much money floating around, it usually is something out of left field that sparks the correction. Today, it could be the problem with a bank in Portugal. Of course, the answer to solve this problem, will be more money thrown at it by the world's central banks. There are seasonal things that can cause corrections, like the need for funds to book profits so that their bonuses can be paid, illiquidity that occurs in the summer when trading desks are thinner and most importantly, the trading computers that do most of the trading all of a sudden reacting negatively.
Remember back in 1987 when the crash was caused by "portfolio insurance" that was supposed to prevent a crash?
We could get a little bumpy here. IMO, the news out of Portugal points out that nothing has been fixed. The banks in Europe are still insolvent and nothing has been done to fix the problem other than driving the price of European debt up so that their banks could make a profit trading it. Did everyone see the yield on the Spanish 10 yr was around the same level as ours? Yea, Spain is in the same shape as the US.