Rates are going to drop. Agency mREITs should benefit unless the whole market goes down. Is this the news that finally causes the market to correct as we head into the end of the quarter with everyone up and looking to take some profits?
It will be interesting to see the action in the BDC's. They had quite a run before the disruption of the removal from various indices, but have recently bounced back up. My speculation was that money was rotating out of mREITs and into BDCs because of the expectation of higher interest rates and the belief that higher rates meant greater lending opportunities (i.e. from a growing economy). But what happens if we don't get higher rates or a stronger economy? Will money rotate out of BDCs and back into agency mREITs or somewhere else? I always get a little jaundice when multiple investors "discover" a new sector and proclaim it the new-new thing with no downside risk.
Vin, my thoughts exactly. Although to be fair, it is probably still somewhat early in the LNG game (maybe 3rd inning). But the sector is not exactly unrecognized. So the stocks will go up just because the money will follow their % increase weighting in the indices. Subspecialties will develop just like we used to think of MLPs as mostly pipelines and then upstreams and midstreams grew.
There is a lot going on with energy as a result of all of the shale activity that has been going on for several years now. Today there was news about the exportation of condensate and there will be companies who will benefit from that (initially PXD and EPD, but maybe APL as a beneficiary of PXD's drilling).
I don't see how you get there. ACMP is carrying their 49% at about 500mm (from 2013 10k). That makes the whole thing worth $1b. Say they pay a 20% premium. That's $1.2b. EVEP's share is 252mm. ACMP would have to pay almost triple for EVEP's % to be worth $600mm.
$252mm would not be a bad price for EVEP (I'm not counting what Cardinal is worth). In previous presentations/conferences, they said it would be worth about $5 per share a few years down the road. Nice, but I still wish they could sell some acres. Then you would see a real pop.
helmut, I can't help but wonder where theStreet and Wells (with regard to HTGC) were when both of these took a tumble in March. Seems like that was the time to be reiterating buys. Maybe they did and I just missed it. Meanwhile just as MPW starts to make some progress, it gives most of it back.
Bob, there's been some discussion about MWE and the MLPs in general on the MWE board and on i.v. The two thoughts are that many if not all the MLPs are moving up because of the recent merger mania involving WMB and the TRGP/NGLS being in play and because two new MLPs funds were recently formed and have about $1 billion to invest in the sector. I bet that we haven't heard the last of the big acquisitions.
I'm wondering if the Cohens would consider an offer for the APL/ATLS/ARP complex. An analyst on their last call suggested that APL's Permian Basin assets were worth more than the entire company.
I'm going to put my contrarian hat back on for a second. This is starting to look like a blow-off top to me. It resembles past action -- the frenzy surrounding IPO's and merger mania. Vin and Bob surely remember the action in the dry-bulk sector. How many LNG and other marine type stocks have come public and have had parabolic moves? And it's not just boats, but frac sand MLPs and other "high-growth" MLPs. It always starts with a legitimate fundamental rationale -- in this case the need for energy infrastructure be it midstream or LNG, combined with the chase for yield. Personally, it's hard to not buy, especially when you witness things like EMES (frac sand) double in a couple of months, despite maintaining an overbought RSI throughout the entire rise. Greed over fear. The end of the quarter is Monday. As with all blow-off tops and parabolic moves, you just don't know when it ends. I should listen to my own advice and start selling and stop chasing, but the pull is just that great.
Gambler, the WSJ used to publish a list of all closed end funds each Monday which listed the yield and premium/discount to NAV. They may still have a list. Also, there are several fund families that offer this product: Invesco, Nuveen, Blackrock, Putnam. Most have a tab on their websites for their closed-end fund offerings. Here are some: VCV VMO VGM VKI VKQ IIM MUH PMM PMO.
A couple of points. The better yielding funds are leveraged (taking advantage of the Fed's low rates). The Yahoo numbers for yields etc. are not accurate. Best to go to the dividend announcements and calculate the yield yourself. Most of the sponsors provide the NAV on their websites, but the exchanges also post the NAV, usually by inserting the letter x before and after the symbol (it will come up on Yahoo Finance if you try). Many funds are selling at near 10% discounts to NAV. Most pay monthly. There is also a closed end fund website (I think its sponsored by Nuveen) that details the amount of undistributed income for each fund and other stats. You have to watch out to make sure a fund isn't paying out more than it is earning in interest, otherwise there is risk of a divy cut.
I bought a portfolio of these for my mom several years ago and mostly held them. Many of them had great runs from 2011-2013 with annual gains of 20% plus. They typically pay out cap gains in Dec so the charts have some declines due to that. They topped out (watch those RSI levels) at the start of 2013 when it looked like rates were going to start to go higher and gave back many of their capital gains, but started back up at the beginning of the year. With the Fed on hold, if the economy weakens, these could turn in another good year, but because of the leverage if inflation heats up or the Fed mentions raising rates, they will decline. In retrospect, I should have taken the gains back at the end of 2012.
No, its ^BKX, the KBW bank index (sometimes called the Philadelphia bank index, but I don't know why). I think you have to put either a $ or ^ in front of the symbol. Minyanville's Todd Harrison frequently mentions it in his writings as a barometer for the economy. in general, with the rationale that the banks can't do well unless the economy is doing well.
Gambler, I am a proponent of trading positions in the mREIT sector. To me, the ex-dates and frequent spo's whenever they trade at a large premium to book value, give one the chance to be opportunistic. I don't think the time is like it was a few years back when the mREITs just went up and up.
I am waiting to pull the trigger on selling NYMT. Ex date is Thursday. Maybe everyone has caught on to the game as it is only up 3 cents today. On the otherhand, I think I might hold WMC into the ex-date. My gain so far on WMC is about equal to the upcoming dividend, but WMC's is trading at a discount to its peers and below book. I think their divy was a surprise and investors might trade into it and out of the previous outperformers (like NYMT). Also, rates look like they are more likely to surprise to the down side than to the upside (at least right now). At current prices the yield is over 17% while most of the sector yields 13%. I also don't expect WMC to do an spo since they did a large one in Q1. It will be interesting when the Q2 GDP is reported, as a miss there could force rates down toward 2.0%. I have also bought some closed end muni funds yielding close to 7%.
Apples and oranges. ACMP is a midstream and has a high distribution growth rate. EVEP is upstream and has zero distribution growth. However, the upstreams like LINE, VNR and BBEP, have been going up lately. Probably a little of the oil price increase due to the Mideast and the sector getting some attention because the yields in the midstream have gotten low because of recent price advances. There has also been news in the Utica with Aubrey's firm buying more acres.
Sarge, look at the 3 year chart of the BKX (the Philadelphia bank index). It has had a nice run from a bottom in 2011 near $35 but looks like it might be topping and rolling over. It looks like it fell out of the nice upward slopping channel and looks to have formed a small head and shoulders pattern. That doesn't mean it can't recover and get back into the channel, or that it just goes sideways for some time. However, I would think that banks need rising rates and a strengthening economy to profit further and it doesn't seem like we have that, otherwise the 10 year would be going higher.
Stagg, STAG has had a tremendous run, up from $10 in 2012. It may be consolidating its gain. If it can continue to raise its dividend, then the stock price should continue to go up.
However, Wells Fargo had a report on REITS and many of the metrics were near all time highs. Maybe you can find out what the historic high metrics were for STAG and see if it may have some gas left. I think we might see some mergers in the REIT space as that gives the acquiror a chance to buy a large amount of properties and use their stock as currency.
Gambler, I've owned it for a few years. It paid a good yield and was going along well until KM announced that EPB's distribution would be flat, then it dropped over 7 points. There is some speculation that KM may eventually merge it into KMP, but the premium would be negligible. EPB does have a pipeline into Elba Island on which an LNG facility is being built. Overall, I'm disappointed with the drop in price and no growth, but the yield is pretty good and there's is the wild card of LNG. But as I have said over and over again, MLPs are not just about chasing the highest yield.
If WMC can stay above $14.75, it should make a run to $15.25, where the gap down started. At that level, it will still be yielding over 17%.
Unlike NYMT, which isn't running up yet into the ex-date next weeki, WMC probably has less risk of an spo. I might hold WMC after the ex-date since the quarterly report should be positive. Let's see where it goes.
One can never tell when the investment banks are talking their book or giving cover for the Fed. So then the Fed should admit that it is wrong and that their QE can't increase aggregate demand and produce their 2% inflation, but instead, they will say that they just need to keep at it. There is no wage inflation from demand pull (didn't you suggest that ACA would cause cost-pull inflation?). But prices are up for food. Health care and insurance. But if the stats don't measure those or include clever offsets, then I suppose they don't count. Gold bounced off the mat so someone thinks differently. Not saying we go to 4 or 5% inflation, but over 3% for a quarter or two, and those Fed funds futures are going to start to move up. From 0.25% to 0.50% is a 100% increase.