stagg, one more correction. The main driver for the price of a stock is the EXPECTED profit or loss, as the market tries to anticipate. This is why mREIT stocks react so quickly to changes in the 10 year because the market knows that increasing rates mean lower book values. The market doesn't have to wait until the quarterly report is published some 30 days after the quarter ends to see that rising rates negatively effected book value. They already know that relationship.
rogere, I use Turbo Tax and even with it, entering multiple K-1's can be a bear. But it is essentially a data entry task, although this year Turbo Tax made some changes that complicated it. The posters on the investor village board for MLPs had some great suggestions for the workaround for sales and this year I was able to electronically file my return. I also understand the problems with trading MLPs, but note that you don't always get a K-1 if your trade is completed with the same month (or the K-1 may have a bunch of zeroes). But that's another reason to use options, especially if you are just trading the pre-distribution runup and the post ex-date collapse.in these defective trusts like CHKR. The larger problem is that as CHKR's problems get more disclosure and more people figure out that the "yield" is really deceptive, you may not get yield-chasers pushing the stock up in order to take advantage of an overpriced stock. A PV-10 value of $6 still did not drive the stock price down much, so I guess there's still hope that the yield chasers drive it up to $11 or $12. For now, the better collapse play may be SDT as they near the end of their subordination period.
stagg, I share some of your views on the K-1's even though I use Turbo tax. There is a lot of good help on the investor village board MLP group on how to navigate through. Turbo Tax made some change and if you had a MLP that you sold, you had to do a workaround. I too am a little frustrated with the performance of some of my MLPs, but they keep paying and most of the distributions are tax-deferred.
I will mention (and brag a little) that TRGP (which is not an MLP, but is the GP of NGLS) has run from $76 to $97 since November and WGP (which is the GP of WES) has gone from $36 to $47. I mentioned both of these at the beginning of the year. ETE has also been on a tear. The market likes the GPs and their double digit distribution growth. It is not always about high-yield, but about high-growth in distributions.
Keebon, even with 11 k-1's, including ETE which reported 5 separate K-1's and ATLS which had 5 additional ones, I am still looking at MLPs (although I am considering switching out of a couple). A poster on investor village mentioned EMES which markets fracking sand. Current yield is 7% and the projections are good for a large increase.
I agree on the possibility of an spo with NYMT. Even though they just did one back in Jan, since they have a low stock price, their spo's don't typically raise that much money. Anytime the stock of an mREIT is trading over 110% of book, they are at risk for an spo. Remember, most mREIT management firms get paid on total assets so it is in their best interest to increase in size. That and the fact that it is trading over RSI 70 tells me to wait to buy. Remember, the Wall Street firms leak like sieves and everyone on the street knows who has the assignment for the the spo.
Bob, WMC cut their dividend and announced their book is in the low $15 range. They probably do an spo soon since they are still trading over book. It's had a good run and people are probably taking their profits to buy after the spo.
AI announced an spo but the offering is under book value (not accretive). I have not looked to see if they post an "economic value" instead of GAAP book value. With the possibility of rising rates approaching, the nonagency/commercial mREITs will draw invest funds from the agency mREITs, at least until the economy slows and the Fed reinstates QE.
Gambler, you were warned about ARR. It wasn't me, it was the chart that told you it had stopped going up and was ready to crack that support at $4.20. How many months of dividend have you lost? That being said, if the 10-year does not break through 2.80% on the upside, the agency mREITs could come back into play. I think Yellen put a scare into mREIT holders. Also, WMC is starting to decline. It cut its dividend and its book is in the low $15 range. It is also a risk for a spo, but its followers love it even though it will probably continue to cut the dividend (reminds me of the cult following of AGNC circa 2012). You just have to do some basic math. Spread times leverage equals yield.
Biotechs have been in a bubble so it is only normal for there to be a selloff. Almost every publication was talking about their bubble, plus my wife just bought a biotech fund, so the intermediate top has to be in. There was a good article today comparing biotechs to the past bubbles in dot.com and homebuilder stocks. They still have a way to go to reach the levels that those sectors reached before popping, but that's a risky bet.
stagg, I apologize for making you think I am beating you up. I like to point out the other side of some of your conclusions. There are limits to the color (key statistics) that you often cite. First of all, those are PAST statistics about performance that occurred in the past. A company could improve its performance in the future and its statistics will improve. The market is often about anticipating these changes. The performance of good performing companies can level out or turn down and vice-versa. Fundamental statistics are not predictors of future performance. Susan used to say "return to the mean" and in most cases that is what happens both with stock prices and with a stock's earnings, margins etc. Investing would be much easier if it just involved picking the stocks with the best current stats. To be fair, some companies are consistent performers or are adept at recovering quickly from downturns. This could be the case with SDRL now that it has declined some 25% in the last 6 months. But when the stock was selling at $46, its high return on equity did not tell you it was going to decline 25% and that it was time to sell.
Sarge, the beauty of these message boards is that it gives an investor access to many different eyes and ears. Most of us don't have the time to study every report on every stock and to learn about all the different sectors. I personally have learned about many different sectors and stocks that are not normally discussed in the financial media or TV from the generous posters on many boards. And these boards can serve as a useful community to chat with people from different backgrounds who we may not have come across except for our mutual interest in stocks. The boards are free to everyone to post whatever they want, but we have seen how they can deteriorate (when discussions get too political). Many readers object to the "Off Topic" posts because they come to these boards to read about a particular stock, but the fact is that there is just not enough news about a particular stock every day so many of us use these boards to discuss many different stocks and the market in general. For most of us, our goal is to invest more wisely so that we can make more money.
My weakness (besides being opinionated) is for braggards, especially when nothing we post about our individual performance can (or should) be verified. Your investment performance has nothing to do with my performance, and you and I are not in competition. However, I can learn from your knowledge or experience. I started to utilize technical analysis concepts in my investing primarily as a result of postings from a poster on the TCK board. Unfortunately, this poster had the very annoying habit of giving us a day-by-day, minute by minute update of his portfolio value and each stock that was going his way (while not mentioning any of his losers). To me, one can learn from others' mistakes as well as others' successes, and more importantly from the decision making process. Investing is hard and those who say it is easy would not be posting on a yahoo message board to tout their picks.
stagg, to be fair, you should mention that while STAG is up today and up over time, it is still down from its high. While it's nice to put on the rose colored glasses and only post about your daily winners, these types of posts don't really serve a purpose and only sound like bragging or worse yet, like pumping. Yesterday, you were bragging about SDRL, (STAG was down yesterday) and today you are bragging about STAG (when SDRL was down). The other day you were bragging about WMC and saying they kept the dividend basically the same, when in fact they cut it from 90 to 70 cents which is still a cut despite the recent stock dividend of 10%. Similarly, bashing a stock like LINE and the oil and gas sector without also mentioning the success of other oil and gas stocks is also pointless unless you are trying to make the point that the entire oil and gas sector is overvalued. There are other stocks in that sector that are doing fine. For sure, LINE has its problems and its recent decline may be due to a recent downgrade by JP Morgan plus negative comments from Cramer, but it is also paying a 10% distribution.
Occasionally, we all like to pat ourselves on the back for making a good stock pick, but the daily price reports (only when the stock is going your way) are just bragging.
For example, you mention GRU, which has risen from $5.50 to $6.56 since Feb, but has a high around $7. Do you own GRU? When did you buy it, at what price and where do you think it could go to and why? Those types of comments would be helpful to other posters.
stagg, I think you are tempting the trading gods. I have to challenge some of your statements. First, comparisons to other people are pointless. Many of us have enjoyed nice gains in this bull market run, but we can't lose sight of the fact that we are lucky enough to have assets to put at risk in the stock market. I'm not sure you meant to point out the correlation, but the stock market has risen largely on the back of ultra-low interest rates and Fed QE, which has damaged people living on fixed incomes who depend on bank interest that can't or shouldn't be put at risk in the stock market. The question is whether those conditions will continue or whether the stock market will be able to continue to rise if it no longer has the tailwinds of lower rates AND QE. We will see come the Fall.
The historical fact is that stock market gains come in cycles -- its gains are given back, or shifted from sector to sector. The stocks that gained in the dot.com boom and bust probably are not the ones leading in this rally. The Teslas, Twitters and Facebooks and 3D printer stocks have taken the place of the dot.com stocks of yesteryear and the parallels are too scary. Dot.com "eyeballs" have been replaced with "viewer pages" and tweets. But this market rally has benefited many stocks, not just the fad stocks. Look at the chart of something like MON and you will see that it traded as high as $140 a few years back, dipped to $40 and is now $115, so one can make money buying and selling at the right points in the cycle.
You say "when the economy gets better" but who is to say that it will get better. At another time on another board, we had the discussion of whether the US is just like Japan and whether it will continue to have a subperforming economy.
You say investors who have not made lots of money must be doing everything wrong. But what if their timing is just wrong, like buying SDRL at $47 and watching it sink to $33.
You have to be a holder as of the close of business on the record day. Trades are settled 3 days after the record day, so I think you are asking whether one could trade in and out of the stock day before the ex-date and still get the dividend (trades on the record date won't settle until 3 days after).
UBS was the joint lead manager on their last offering. Now, was the upgrade the quid pro quo for the last offering or to get the next assignment?
Sounds good except for the part about low risk. What if they disclose more production problems and can only pay 40 cents this quarter? Do you think the price will hold up? Remember that they warned back in August that they could have such problems, so it is not far-fetched. The less risky play is to buy puts around the dividend announcement. Least amount of cash at risk for greatest percentage and absolute return possibilities. Can easily earn the "distribution" just from the ex-date drop in the price. To be fair, it is not all that easy as you have to contend with wide spreads on the puts and timing is everything.
Don't know who this is. He doesn't give any fundamental reasons for why anyone should invest in this trust, other than its "a buy and hold stock." Nothing to explain the almost 50% drop since it was issued. Yeah, this is the definition of a pumper -- someone who says to buy a stock with no reasons.
Owning a convertible bond is equivalent to being long the stock (i.e. if the stock price increases, your bond increases in value and vice versa). The convertible bond owner is thus exposed to anything that would cause the stock price to decline. To protect against such decline, they can either buy puts or short the stock, but buying puts would cost more money. Shorting the stock brings in sales proceeds, so in essence they collect the bond premium without having any money at risk (i.e. Buy bond for $100mm, sell stock short bringing in $100mm in proceeds and collect 3.75mm bond interest with no money at risk.) Since the bond and the short stock are in the same account, they are not likely to get a margin call because the changes in each position should balance out.
And here you were thinking that institutional investors buy convertible bonds because they believe in the company.
NRZ reported earnings yesterday and declared their quarterly dividend of 17 cents. After an initial sell off due to a slightly lower core earnings number, the stock is back up. The ex-date is next week. I know this may be getting too cute, but here's what I am thinking. NRZ has filed a registration statement with the SEC several months ago and you have to believe they are close to doing an offering. The stock will decline on the ex-date by at least the amount of the dividend (last Sept, it declined by about 30 cents). The stock is at the highs but not yet oversold in RSI terms. If this gets over RSI 70 in the next couple of days, I am thinking of selling (maybe on the day before the ex-date) and buying back when they do the offering.
The downside is that I don't get the timing correct, but the upside is that instead of just getting 17 cents from the dividend, I squeeze out 40 or 50 cents from the swing.
robert, you recognize the pattern that the trapped longs like rogere and grgsvll can't seem to grasp. The stock is in a long decline. Yes it bounces up into the dividend run, but if you don't sell the shares that you bought at the low points, you end up with losses on those shares. The articles just spell out the deteriorating performance that trapped longs don't want to acknowledge.