wow. I bet the same thing can be said about some of the storage center REITs and many of the health facility REITs. However, if you look at a longer term chart, there have been times when names like this will go sideways for a period as the stock digests its growth. DLR went from 47 to 70 in 2014 but then spent 2015 going sideways before resuming its climb starting in December. I bet there are some Fibonacci levels that held during that sideways period that could have given confidence that that was a good entry point.
There are a lot of stocks like this that pay good divies and have growth, but we seldomly talk about them.
Of course it isn't true. You should always double-check any yield info as the info usually is not produced by yahoo -- they just get a feed from one of these service providers and Marisa probably uses one of the cheaper providers that doesn't provide instantaneous updates and instead give stale info.
You might remember that one of the first signs of ARP's/ATLS's impending decline was when Cohen started to play fast and loose with the dividend projections for the post-TRGP deal on the ATLS stub. When the TRGP deal was first announced, Cohen said that ATLS would pay an annual divy of 1.10 (the stub of ATLS was trading at $9 when the TRGP deal was announced but declined to $3 at one point, so the $1.25 would have been a huge yield -- that is what probably suckered Cooperman in to buy ATLS). But within a month, they cut that projection to 1.10 Then when the stub ATLS shares couldn't meet the NYSE listing requirements, they had to do a reverse split, so the divy was adjusted to 55 cents. They filed an SEC report at the end of Feb with that projection while at the same time ARP was preparing to cut their distribution due to their debt problems. ATLS knew this and they lied in their SEC report. The cut at ARP resulted in ATLS suspending their divy until May, but when May rolled around, they said it was suspended for all of 2015. Of course, with the ARP distribution cut and no IDRs being paid from ARP, ATLS had no money to pay a common distribution. This is why Cooperman had the infamous blow up on ATLS conference call. He thought he was getting a 30% yield on a misunderstood "stub" and instead got shafted by Cohen. Now he can't buy himself a new toupee.
Saw that this ETF from WisdomTree just came out. They write in-the-money puts on the S&P. I know some have been successful in writing puts as a way to generate income. Not sure if it's worth the added income to be writing puts at the market instead of out of the market, but that's where professional management comes in.
DH must now be looking at the chart of oil. I'm looking at $wtic on stockcharts. Last year around this same time, we saw a rally from 45 to 60 and as I recall DH made a similar "bottom" call. Maybe that rally had something to do with the end of refiners maintenance and the change over to making gasoline for the summer driving season. At any rate, this recent rally had a greater percentage increase (from mid 20s to 41) but ran right into the 200 dma. The 50 dma is at 34.57. The 50 dma is turning up, but I would think it has to hold to be able to say that the low's in Feb were it.
There are many factors influencing the daily price of oil, including the Fed, changes in the US dollar and the USD/JPY cross. The Atlanta Fed just reduced their Q1 GDP estimate again to 0.4% so growth is still weakening.
Sell! Just kidding. HTGC made a similar run before in Dec which took 3 months and then promptly gave it all back in Jan. MACD looks to be at the level where it tips down with the stock to follow.
I'm still holding my ill-timed purchase. I think Kee is right that the BDCs have been holding up with the junk bonds. HYG is still holding above 80 and is actually showing an uptrend after the big rally from Feb. We'll see if that can continue or if earnings reports creates a reversal.
Gambler, this is what s.a. had on it when Baird downgraded it:
The firm cuts its 2016 EBITDA and distributable cash flow estimates by a respective 26% and 31%, and sees Q4 2015 results down Q/Q, partly because Q3 results were inflated from a $1M contract settlement.Baird expects DCF/unit of $0.31 for Q4, which would equate to coverage of 0.76x; ample liquidity likely offsets immediate threats to distribution viability, though long-term this environment likely would not support a continuation.
Even if you didn't see that, the technicals on this stock were suspect for other than a trading position. At the end of Jan, it ran from $5.50 to 10.50 and right into resistance below the 200 dma, and then came all the way back down to $6. Then it did the same thing again. Those are great trading swings -- greater than any quarterly dividend.
The underwriter dealer for the offering is Anthem which is a subsidiary of ARP. Go figure, they couldn't even get a real underwriter to pedal this junk. Hey, maybe that is how they are going to survive. Hire their underwriter sub to sell off parts of their business.
I think they said on their call that they were expecting the divy to go down. They have plenty of coverage at over 5 times right now, and more cash than the market value of the company, but the stock seems to move with all the noise surrounding oil. It's now down from its recent bounce to $4 and the 50 dma is at $2.90 and getting closer. If that doesn't hold, you could easily see this testing lows. So I view the risk/reward as a 25 cent divy versus $1 down in share price, which to me is not a good bet. Of course, all of that could change if there was a production freeze (which I think is doubtful).
There was also some discussion of the cross default provisions with SDRL which if resolved favorably could boost the stock.
Be careful if they own any Allergan, which was tanking after hours after the Treasury issued a crackdown on corporate inversions.
Stagg, this is about the future. In the near future, it is very likely that AVACF will cut their divy because of the lower spot price that they had in Q1 compared to that last year. The market usually (but not always) reacts harshly to divy cuts (unless it was widely expected), but judging from your pumps, you were not expecting a divy cut when you first started pumping this. I guess you are in the camp of thinking that the market has already digested the risk of a divy cut. You could be right. But clearly, the better post in December would have been to acknowledge the already deteriorating spot index, and then in Jan thru March when it became even worse, acknowledge that there was big risk of an UPCOMING divy cut. Instead, you recommended the stock on the AVACF board and to payback at the end of March. While AVACF may not be a "core" position for you (and no one knows how big a position that is -- your initial position could be 10 share or even less), you did not differentiate between "nibbling" at it or buying more, until much later when you revealed it was not a core position.
As for the research, I did not just look at the declining stock price or the chart of the declining spot index on AVACF's website. I actually reviewed their past dividend announcements to see what the average spot rate was during that time that produced those divies in an attempt to see how the spot rate effects their revenues and earnings. I didn't just pick out the past (large) yield from Yahoo and proclaim that that made the stock a good buy, like you apparently did.
Picking winners is hard, but avoiding big losers is equally as hard and as important, and something you just can't dollar cost average away. If a pick goes sideways, that's no big deal, but if something like AVACF loses 50 or 60% that is a big deal, especially if it could have been avoided by looking at the trend in their business that was pretty well established when the you first mentioned AVACF.
I really don't know which way this market goes. While we all know the reasons for it to decline (oil, bad corporate earnings, some poor economic stats etc.), I could also see the possibility of it going sideways to slightly down before rallying into summer. That's what happened before in previous cases when the market finally succumbed to a bear. But you are right that there are slim pickings to commit new money. Ed might be on to something about money rotating into drugs. clrodrick also mentioned some covered call option funds that are still at decent discounts.
Those still crazy enough to be interested in AVACF should note that their website now shows that their spot index for their charters has dropped to $18301 after being in the $21k range during March. This is down from the peak of $48k in January 2016 and down from the average for last year's Q1 of $64,832.
Some posters have been pumping AVACF because it previously paid some high dividends, but these posters have not looked at the correlation between the spot rates and the amount of divies paid by the company over the year when the spot rate has been falling off of a cliff. Last week they even said in another posting that rates may have stabilized, but I guess they were too busy to do more research and provide a follow-up now that the spot index rate has dropped again (by another 15%).
We have seen that some companies can get creative when it comes to maintaining divy levels because they know a certain amount of their investor base chases high yields so you never can tell how big a divy decline is coming. Also, when spot rates bottom out, many momentum investors will jump in to a stock trying to catch the bottom and the eventual upturn in future divies, but as with the BDI index, it has become more difficult to know that the bottom is "in" in these shipping rates. At least AVACF publishes their rate right there on their website.
My view is that there is still substantial risk in this stock, as there was back in December when it was trading at $13 and the spot index decline was already well underway. But some pumpers of the stock have said that I don't do any research.
Gambler, on MORL, this is one where you really need to know the history of the divy payments. From just looking at the dividend history on yahee, it looks like there is quite a bit of variation in the divy amounts - for example, it paid less than 4 cents in Feb and March, but 72 cents in Jan. Further, it looks like the big payment months are Jan, April, July and Oct, which probably coincides with the quarterly payments on the mREITs that make up the index that this tracks. I bet this schedule is well known among those playing this and they jump in to ride it up before the declaration.
Of course, this is also going to move with the Fed.
Have you looked at that chart? almost straight down since last April, probably because of fear of rising rates. Got a nice bounce off of lows in January, but seems close to resistance. Does not appear to have any options to hedge your capital.
Just for comparison sakes, EVEP just got their borrowing base cut from 625 to 450 or about 28%. EVEP has much worse hedges than ARP, but they also had a much lower draw on their credit facility since they had paid it down to zero when they sold their last midstream unit and just used it when they bought properties from their sponsor last Fall (which was a horrible purchase that they paid too much for and just ended up writing down)
stagg, once again pumping on the days one of your holdings is up while ignoring when it is down and ignoring the overall decline since you started mentioning this when it traded over $13. You also must have missed that that gain was on a puny 1,100 shares traded, which is below its 6000 average.
Again, you make no attempt to be balanced or to explain the risks of investing in this now when the risk of an earnings miss and divy cut is YUGE. Of course you also missed that when it was at 13.
Don't get me wrong, there is a place for bottom fishing and on some of your picks you have done ok with it, but so many you missed entirely. You should sue Gambler for the use of his name because you really are a HIgh Yield Gambler.
stagg, the real research I did on AVACF is what enabled me to question whether your recommendation of it was wrong. It seems that you haven't done any research to see how the huge decline in spot prices is going to effect their ability to maintain their divy, but then again that is your track record -- you never saw divy cuts coming in SDRL, NMM AWLCF NYMT etc.
Stagg, no one else on these boards posts daily updates about their holdings. You are the only one who does that. People like to celebrate a success, not to brag, but to let others know why they are deciding to continue holding or why they sold or bought more. There are plenty of posters who probably have 10 times as much money as you and you never see them bragging about their good fortune. Didn't your mom teach you that bragging about your money is wrong?
I don't have to mention others' holdings that are doing well, because they already know they are doing well and they don't need my affirmation. Your comments are so telling -- is that why you pump your holdings because your life is missing affirmation and this is the only place to get it? Besides, who keeps track of what everyone is holding. The only reason I can criticize your debacles is because you keep mentioning them every day. Hint, if you stop talking daily about your holdings, I won't have anything to criticize you about. But when you keep exposing yourself and keep making erroneous statements, you are going to get called on your bad calls.
As for Total Returns, stick SCG in your calculator from 1975 and stick VCV in from 2011.
Stagg, did you see Gambler get upset at DH when DH challenged Gambler about his TVIX trade? Why is it that everyone else can take criticism but you can't?
I just received an update to my 1099 from Fidelity. The classification of HTCG's dividends had changed. From the i.v. board, a poster points out that the final updates are not due to the brokers until tomorrow, so anyone planning on doing taxes this weekend should check their tax reports online to see if there were changes.