stagg, a couple of thoughts. First, Nov is typically a seasonally weak time for MLPs (I haven't tested that but read about it on the MLP guy blog). Second, any time there's a new ETF, they have to go out and buy stakes in the MLPs which of course forces up the price in the MLPs. Once this demand subsides, the stocks may decline. Third, there has been some disappointment in a few of the better MLPs. MWE got creamed the other day. Fourth, there have been a lot of spo's and ipo's leading to too much supply. That supply will have to be absorbed.
As I understand MLPL, it doesn't own any MLPs but tracks the Alerian index, probably with futures which allows the leverage. I believe the distributions are taxable as bond interest.
Wrong. Lucky to get $3.20 in divs and share price around $7. How is that a 40% return? Another yield hog about to be slaughtered.
You may get a bounce if this ever stops going down. That has been what the pattern has been. But this year's divy has nothing to do with next year's divy and unless you can go back in time, is irrelevant to your future return. You are confusing current divy with Total return. If they cut the divy next year, which is likely, the stock price will react downward. So bottomline, you might get $1.60 in distributions and suffer a principal loss.
Wish I kept my puts. I only made a 100% return for holding 2 weeks.
Jamisher, let's not have Yahoo try to "fix" any more message boards. They seem to be having more problems than HHS with the health care exchange.
This stock has not returned 19% this year. It started out around $17 per share and paid about $2.40 in dividends, but is now trading at $10.58. That's about a 23% loss. Further, that 2.40 divy is not guaranteed and is likely to be reduced when the subordination level comes to an end. But keep believing you are getting 19%.
Wrong. Nov 19 is the RECORD DATE. See in the quoted passage where it says "unitholders of record." The ex-date is two days before. You have to own the stock on the record date which means you have to buy it T+3 in order for the trade to settle by the Record Date. This is a common error made by many novice investors. When in doubt, look up the answer.
I am trying to help investors understand that these are defective instruments to own. I have fully disclosed that I own puts and have put the same strategy on for the last two quarters. Before you start casting aspersions, you should at least know what you are talking about.
Why would anyone hold just to get 66 cents when the stock will drop by that amount tomorrow. The market sometimes provides a graceful exit. Unconvinced? Look at the action in SDT. CHKR not as bad as SDT? You really want to bet on that? The same programs/hedge funds/algorithms that are killing SDT/SDR/PER are going to look for a new target tomorrow and guess what's in their sights?
Except the 10 year is not at 0%. Fed funds is and Fed funds did not rise to cause book value losses. The 10 year could get to 3% if the Fed loses control of the bond market. Why would the 10 year go over 3%? If the primary dealers want rates to rise, they will rise. Note, at the recommendation of the primary dealers, the Treasury will begin selling floating rate notes in Jan 2014. The primary dealers want rates to rise so that they can sell floating rate notes that they buy from Treasury.
helmet, full disclosure, I bought some Jan 15 calls on WMC when the taper didn't happen. I did not want to tie up large sums of capital, hoping to "earn" the dividend without having to have that capital at risk. WMC's Q3 report was somewhat of a disappointment however. The stock is finally rebounding, but I don't think the mREITs will stage a large rally. it doesn't matter that short rates will stay at 0%. What is important is the direction of the 10 yr and whether the Fed has lost control of it. There are many arguments why the economy will stay weak and why the 10 yr rate should decline, but only if the Fed can keep control. I have mentioned before that the primary dealers have convinced the Treasury to issue floating rate notes starting at the end of Jan, which to me means that the dealers want rates to rise.
Or more selling due to more stop losses being hit. I just sold my Dec puts. Bought at 81 cents, sold at $1.85. Beats trying to collect a phantom 20% yield.
Your mistake was not to sell when the divy announcement came out. What didn't you see? I have been writing about this pattern in post ex-date declines. Why did you think it would be different this time? Selling now risks compounding your initial mistake. The RSI is now in oversold territory. Look and learn how to read a chart. Use stockcharts .com. This may bounce eventually, but it is not coming back to where it was. To get comfortable with your loss, look at it as an asset in that it lowers your taxes. Then next February look at the chart and buy some puts before the next announcement. Learn and adapt or die.
jamisher, fact is that there isn't enough to talk about on SFL. Most posts not having to do with SFL are clearly denoted as "OT" so that people like you can skip over them if they choose. We discuss many other stocks on this board because the posters who visit this board have similar interests in dividend paying stocks and other opportunities. It's also a classic chicken and egg problem. How would we know to go to a different message board for a stock mentioned here if it wasn't mentioned here in the first place?
Perhaps you could contribute something about the stocks that you own or follow since none of us would ever know you if we had to search for your opinion on some other board. Instead of just taking, why don't you try to give a little.
I had sold Jan 67.5 calls and thought I was going to have to roll out yet again. I think I rolled out 2 or 3 times this year waiting for MWE to go sideways or issue an spo. Also covered my EPD calls, but a little too early.
Many of the MLPs had nice runs without hardly a rest and they were due.
vcan, think you are right. The only way to try to get even is to play puts before the divy announcement. These trusts usually run up to the divy announcement and then sell off large after the ex-date. This quarter many brokerage firms issued sell recommendations almost simultaneously with the announcement so there wasn't much time to buy your puts. Even after the divy announcement, sometimes yield chasers still buy. That is what is happening with CHKR which goes ex on Friday. You have to watch the resistance and trend lines before buying your puts. The next time SDT reports, they will have a new PV-10 and probably some impairment. A great opportunity to take advantage with puts, but you have to buy them at the right time.
It has been a loser not just for those who bought at the IPO price but for anyone who bought close to $14 during the last year. The only way you made money is if you bought it after the decline after the ex-date and sold it before the next ex-date.
Why is today a good entry point? The low is under $11.25, it is still not oversold with the RSI at 36 and the news was actually worse than the last time it reached the low.
Dan Moore who wrote a positive artilce on each of PER and SDR after their recent plunges in share price, still is negative on SDT.
How many times do I have to be the debbie downer? I am going to start keeping a running list of stocks recommended on this board when their RSI levels became overbought (over 70) and when their charts went parabolic. Being over 50, I know it's easy to forget, but doesn't anyone remember what just happened with the refiners? Remember RNF and CVI and WMC from earlier this spring?
HTGC may be a great stock that we think no one has noticed because it isn't talked about, but the market makers and algorithms and HFTs all know how to "read" an RSI over 70. I'm not saying HTGC is going to fall apart but any third grader can take a crayon and draw the beautiful trend channel that it has and see that it has gone through the upper end of the channel by a lot. At least wait to buy it until it falls back into the channel.
The SD trusts, SDT SDR and PER are all down about 2-3% today AFTER deduction of their latest distribution for today's ex-date. Dan Moore has authored articles on all of these trusts with more positive comments on PER and SDR than on SDT, so PER and SDR may get bounces when all is said and done. I sold my puts on PER and SDR with a nice gain. Many probably didn't catch his article on CHKR that was issued during the day when the stock was $13.50 and Yahoo has an annoying habit of junking up one's portfolio page with stupid motley fool and zacks articles. Moore's article on CHKR showed up under the summary CHKR page, but it is clearly having an effect which is always the risk with these trusts.
The ex date for CHKR is Friday and there appears to be support around $12.50 that is poised to give way when the distribution is deducted. $11.50 then comes into play.
Saw some possible reasoning for the decline. Nationstar missed their earnings badly. Speculation that there will not be as many sales of MSRs as originally predicted. Many new buyers of MSRs as several mREITs (like AGNC) have announced plans to form subs to buy MSRs.