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Apollo Global Management, LLC Message Board

markusgzee 1446 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 minutes 49 seconds ago Member since: Dec 28, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Corporate honesty

    by pooroldfred57 7 minutes ago
    markusgzee markusgzee 2 minutes 49 seconds ago Flag

    first off corporate, honesty = oxymoron
    second, what are you talking about??

  • Reply to

    EIA report in 5 minutes

    by unclespeaking 6 minutes ago
    markusgzee markusgzee 3 minutes 52 seconds ago Flag

    10.3m barrels

  • Reply to

    EIA report in 5 minutes

    by unclespeaking 6 minutes ago
    markusgzee markusgzee 4 minutes 22 seconds ago Flag

    yesss!!!!!!!!!!! huge build.

  • NEW YORK -- American Airlines' capacity increase numbers for 2015 are misleading because they include a one-time event: adding seats to 221 Boeing 737-800s, President Scott Kirby said Tuesday.

    The event put downward pressure on passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM), he said.
    "In November and December we did 221 aircraft, put 10 more seats on them," said Kirby, speaking at a JP Morgan investor conference. "We created all those ASMs we didn't sell. I think we will close that gap as we move forward."
    Added available seat miles pressures PRASM, a common airline industry metric, because the seats must be sold at prevailing levels to maintain PRASM.
    Kirby said Delta (DAL - Get Report) , Southwest (LUV) and United (UAL - Get Report) are also putting more seats on aircraft this tear. "2015 has a one-time effect," he said. "2016 will look a lot different."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    LUV Numbers

    by markusgzee 54 minutes ago
    markusgzee markusgzee 26 minutes ago Flag

    did DAL update their fuel expense estimate. seems like companies are playing games with the monthly's, reporting only what they feel like.

  • Reply to

    LUV Numbers

    by markusgzee 54 minutes ago
    markusgzee markusgzee 33 minutes ago Flag

    $1.90 for now is my number, let's see what fuel does the rest of the month.

  • Reply to

    LUV Numbers

    by markusgzee 54 minutes ago
    markusgzee markusgzee 39 minutes ago Flag

    yes indeed they do.

  • Reply to

    soft numbers from dal

    by mongolianswampstopper 4 hours ago
    markusgzee markusgzee 53 minutes ago Flag

    haha. now i have seen it all. goodluck with that!

  • markusgzee by markusgzee 54 minutes ago Flag

    they estimate $2 a gallon for Q1
    Also, Prasm growth of +6-7% remains in-line

  • markusgzee markusgzee 15 hours ago Flag

    bar was raised to high, hence my past beeeetching about quoting that 5B

  • markusgzee markusgzee 15 hours ago Flag

    i like the way you think!

  • Reply to

    JBLU/UAL

    by markusgzee 23 hours ago
    markusgzee markusgzee 17 hours ago Flag

    you got it figured right.
    Also, yes i got that you meant it would be tempting to gamble, which is why i made the point of saying you don't have to use the margin. should have been more clear on my part.
    25k is the minimum for a pattern day trader account (etrades at least). That's cold hard cash they want.

    I wouldn't do just 25k since it would put you right on the line of losing that 4x if you close below that 25k. so a higher amount would be more ideal if you plan on trading, so that you can be open for business the next day and not get shut out from one bad day if you happen to finish with less than 25k from starting at 25k for example. basically a cushion. if you finish below 25k, they will cut you back down to 1x until you bring the account back up to 25k at least, either through your stocks appreciating or just simply adding cash, if i remember correctly. i had this happen a few years ago when i started, that's why am advising a cushion to avoid it. maybe you have way more to invest, i don't know. just going off their minimum.

    As far as being spooked and selling, how is that different from a regular account? That is on the individual, not the account type. you would lose that same 5k no matter which account you have.

  • Reply to

    JBLU/UAL

    by markusgzee 23 hours ago
    markusgzee markusgzee 18 hours ago Flag

    why do people say it like it's a dirt word lol. can someone explain this to me, or are trader's just generally despised as I have seen on this and other mb's before.

  • Reply to

    Lazy API has not reported yet

    by unclespeaking 19 hours ago
    markusgzee markusgzee 18 hours ago Flag

    same here. lurking and waiting on VA

  • Reply to

    JBLU/UAL

    by markusgzee 23 hours ago
    markusgzee markusgzee 18 hours ago Flag

    everything you said was correct. However, there is no rule that says you must use up the full 4x or 400k to trade. While the option is there, by no means do you have to use it that way. The extra buying power will allow you to execute more than 100k of that cash, before the 3 day settlement. That's all.
    for example, using your 100k and 4x:
    you buy 50k worth of stock A on a monday. you decide to sell it on tuesday for a quick profit. you can then buy 100k worth of stock again on that same tuesday right after without waiting. using cash and not margin, limiting your exposure. It just allows you flexibility if you are disciplined. If you play with that other 300k, which is not yours, that is dangerous and i don't advocate that.
    i do have to pay a few bucks a month for margin interest (peanuts), depending on how much i trade due to that gap in settlement dates, but am not exposed to the market over my cash amount, or the 100k in the example. I would rather pay the extra couple dollars to enjoy the flexibility, and it really is only a few bucks. you don't even have to have all your cash in play, or even none and sit on the sideline for a bit, to have a pattern day trader account. I am not sure if there is a minimum amount of trades required though, as i am sure i easily surpass any number they might have anyway.

  • markusgzee markusgzee 19 hours ago Flag

    don't really think they will miss numbers. bullish traffic at Dallas Love Field, where VA already established 5% market share in 1 year, in an airport with growing traffic. These numbers is why VA has been on a rally and LUV is stalled, even though LUV traffic went up overall, they lost that 5% to VA. Am bullish on VA, just want it for a little cheaper :)
    AAL is disappointing plenty of us lately. I give it a pass for now due to the run it had from 2013.

  • markusgzee markusgzee 21 hours ago Flag

    imo i think it's not a bad entry point. their recent floor is only 10% less if everything goes bad, but their ceiling is higher with their high still being well above current levels. Am personally waiting for a dip back under 36 closer to 35 since i missed the current boat. will wait for the next one, although admittedly it might not get there. rather miss out on a few bucks then chase it and hold the bag if it dips. safer that way. goodluck with whatever you decide.

  • Reply to

    JBLU/UAL

    by markusgzee 23 hours ago
    markusgzee markusgzee 21 hours ago Flag

    what i take from that your statement is that on march 17 they will "return" the borrowed shares, or buy to cover. Wouldn't that create a short squeeze effect with all those covers?, driving up the pps? Not sure since it's supposed to be a conversion and not a typical short squeeze.

  • markusgzee markusgzee 21 hours ago Flag

    — Oil investors are making money buying and storing oil because of the difference between the current price of oil and the price for delivery in far-off months. An investor can buy oil at $50 today and enter into a contract to sell it for $59 in December, locking in a profit even after paying for storage during those months.

    This is the key here mo. It's what's been keeping oil price up despite the glut. How long can they buy contracts out into? and is that a bad thing? if many companies locked in oil under 60 for end of year, logic would dictate that with the continued oversupply the buyers will eventually dry up and that will get us back down to where normal economics would dictate.

  • markusgzee markusgzee 21 hours ago Flag

    (continued)...

    — U.S. oil production continues to rise. Companies are cutting back on new drilling, but that won't reduce supplies until later this year.

    — The new oil being produced is light, sweet crude, which is a type many U.S. refineries are not designed to process. Oil companies can't just get rid of it by sending it abroad, because crude exports are restricted by federal law.

    — Foreign oil continues to flow into the U.S., both because of economic weakness in other countries and to feed refineries designed to process heavy, sour crude.

    — This is the slowest time of year for gasoline demand, so refiners typically reduce or stop production to perform maintenance. As refiners process less crude, supplies build up.

    — Oil investors are making money buying and storing oil because of the difference between the current price of oil and the price for delivery in far-off months. An investor can buy oil at $50 today and enter into a contract to sell it for $59 in December, locking in a profit even after paying for storage during those months.

    The delivery point for most of the oil traded in the U.S. is Cushing, a city of about 8,000 people halfway between Oklahoma City and Tulsa at an intersection of several pipelines. The city is dotted with tanks that can, in theory, hold 85 million barrels of oil, according to the Energy Department, though some of those tanks are used for blending or feeding pipelines, not for storing oil.

    The market data provider Genscape, which flies helicopters equipped with infrared cameras and other technology over Cushing twice a week to measure storage levels, estimates Cushing is two-thirds full.

    Hillary Stevenson, who manages storage, pipeline and refinery monitoring for Genscape, says Cushing could be full by mid-April. Supplies are increasing at "the highest rate we have ever seen at Cushing," she says.

    Full tanks — or super-low prices — are not a sure thing. New storage is under construction at Cushing, and there are large storage terminals near Houston, in St. James, Louisiana, and elsewhere around the country that will probably begin to take in more oil as prices fall far enough to cover the cost of transporting the oil.

    Also, drillers are cutting back fast because oil prices have plummeted from $107 a barrel in June. And demand is showing signs of rising.

    While the Energy Department reported another enormous rise in crude stocks last week, up 8.4 million barrels from the week earlier, it also reported that diesel and gasoline supplies fell more than expected. That leads some to conclude that demand for crude will soon pick up, easing the glut somewhat.

    But many analysts believe oil prices will fall through the spring, before summer drivers start to relieve the glut.

APO
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