eat a D and go back to carrying the bags. heard you guys messed up bad in Miami leaving people bags while they flew off.
you know it all ae, so won't bother to explain the correlation. will leave it to your family to teach you around the dinner table, since that is where you get your news.
Only you would think anything you do is followed by others, i do not. who did i tell to do what exactly? I am not so delusional as to think anything that happens on this mb affects the pps. So basically i don't give a flying airbus what anyone on here does. it's their money. am sure everyone feels the same way. only your weak minded self would even respond in this type of way. issues! go talk to your psych about it.
Also, don't like talking to fakes with multiple id's so don't bother replying because i won't.
Anyone besides this schmuck wanna talk, will be around.
i get that and am hoping they make that number. that is my point. this could have been an even bigger tailwind, but now we, well i am, are sitting here wondering if jet fuel will be $2+ the rest of the year. still savings, but not 5B. The savings could have been just the gravy on top, but so much touting has lead it to become the main course. There is no logical explanation on the pps now and when it was similar back in may/june. less than 10% higher with 5B in savings? it's borderline a joke. am just waiting it out like ebola and hope the nonsense goes away. for now have to play with technical indicators since the fundamentals went out the window a while ago. People can talk lower prasm etc., but when your highest coast gets chopped by over a third and you only have 4 bucks in pps to show for it and not outperforming the others who do hedge, it's frustrating and it's a joke. Watching other stocks and the market indexes hit high's while we flounder is no fun. what happens when the market decided to correct? Also funny to watch us get downgraded while the rest of the hedgers get the love, not luv.
true point and fine with me....beats adding now and watching it get nibbled away.....my short is making money for now while my long gets eatin away but will rebound hopefully. want to pull the trigger for more but waiting on that darn rsi. next position i open rsi will have to below 40 at the least.
i have no problem with anyone. they have given investors nice returns and traders many opportunities to do what we do. just frustrated when seeing other companies htting highs and the markets at highs, and the sector is lagging outside of jblu and algt.
also, they had no problem staying away from hedging because oil prices are too volatile. So why draw an estimate, that 5B fuel savings, on something they admittedly know not enough about? it seems counter to one another.
i think we all could be hired as analysts at various firms with all the info we have learned, exchanged, sifted through, and down right obsessed over this stock and sector.
I think we should start calling in for the cc's an ask parker questions directly. matter of fact, if i am available i will try to next time.
the thing is i would have been happier with either a lower estimate or at least a range. you see the quarterly estimates they gave. those numbers are almost unattainable at this time. it's only february, and brent is already 60. Better they said 2B in savings, and then beat that estimate later. it's not like we aren't down over 10% since that 5B promise anyway.
i also wouldn't care so much if they hadn't compounded that first blunder, with touting fuel savings at every turn when they spoke of costs. If fuel savings go away, so do those industry leading margins.
Why blame the analysts? most are bullish with very generous pt's. even the ones that downgraded have at least a hold and a 10% premium to current share price. They can always adjust it back up, providing another catalyst. We are in a show and prove time, and last time that happened airlines came through.
We were trading from 40-45 when oil was 100+. now we are trading from $50-55. seems like market may have already priced in the fuel savings. hopefully not, because 2014 full year was record setting and we have more savings to go. As long as oil never touches $100 AAL will save money.
just when you think i am out, i am pulled back in, i know too much about this thing to be out of it bears lol.
Am playing it both ways,i just playing it by rsi lately.
i had cut my core long position, because i just got sick of taking the ride down with it. i watch the rsi and shorted it at 65 on tuesday eod, and will buy the dips( not the past 2 days yet because rsi is still 48 as of todays close. But if rsi gets lower, into the 30's, will add to my position. for now have no choice but to wait and trade according to that while oil plays around with the airlines.
Don't get me wrong, I wanted to for a minute, but i can't seem to quit this stock. just see too much value possible. Am waiting for either it to go up to the 60-70's or to drop to the low 40's so i can go all in and retire when it recovers. I made a nice amount on aamrq/AAL, but not my retirement. One more irrational dip where i can buy at 40 and hold and sell at 70-80 should get me 2-3 more condos and my job will be collecting monthly checks.
sorry got sidetracked, dare to dream right. will post my trades based on rsi if anyone is interested, has been working pretty well lately. not saying there won't be a move but no entry point i like right now based off rsi. keep dry powder for the right time.
//Using the January 22nd fuel curve, we are forecasting our 2015 consolidate fuel price to be in the range of $1.73 to $1.78 per gallon. Based on these prices, we expect our 2015 consolidated fuel expense to improve by more than $5 billion year-over-year//
They can't even make that number in Q1, how will they do that year long? They will save on fuel, but they messed this one up big time.
//By quarter, our forecast for mainline price breaks down as; first quarter $1.71 to $1.76, second $1.67 to $1.71, third quarter $1.74 to $1.79, fourth quarter $1.76 to $1.81. On the regional side; the first quarter is $1.75 to $1.80, second quarter is $1.71 to $1.76, third quarter $1.78 to $1.83, and the fourth quarter $1.80 to $1.85.//
//Using the midpoints of the guidance we have provided along with the PRASM guidance that Scott will give, we expect our first quarter pre-tax margin to be between 13% and 15%, an improvement of approximately 1000 basis points as compared to first quarter 2014.//
now down to 12-14%. will probably be in the 10-12 range imo. they relying too much on fuel savings in their estimates. Same goes for eps. Look at that guidance for Q2 and Q3, the height of fuel season where they even use more expensive fuel when refining. A different blend is how they refer to it.
they said on the cc they would use funds from the open market, and what is a better time than now? They don't need it immediately and Auntie Yellen doesn't want to raise rates yet, but we all know it's coming. They may not hedge fuel, but they sure seem to be hedging a cheaper rate. it's smart business, parker keeping pressure on pps for our own benefit down the line. Also, he wouldn't have signed up for 2B buyback if he didn't expect to have funds for it it. People would have been happy with 1B, especially after completing the first 1B in less than 6 months (august-eoy). Even paid into the pension fund to the point it is funded through 2019. Also, paid off high interest debt, or "bad" debt as he referred to it. Guided all the negative into future numbers, from higher employee costs to capacity pressure to lower international numbers already.
Management is quietly monitoring the situation. I used to think they didn't watch so much, but that accelerated buyback and the talk of S&P inclusion changed my mind. Also, the quick rebound off 46.50 this past week on a huge buy has me thinking they have a plan. Why should it shoot up to $60? There is no short interest to squeeze it there, and we don't have any news to get us some momentum. Waiting for Feb traffic report.
2015 is going to be a slow and painful year, but a necessary one. Watch the RSI and buy the dips, or short when rsi gets too high. i mentioned is 2 days ago on here.
i get that, and own LUV as a sort of hedge against competition with AAL. Also, no international problems for LUV.
Look at the action on airlines that hedge like DAL and tell me oil isn't keeping us from being down as much.
exactly. i completely agree. short term pain for long term gain. i am all for the doubts. pps still hugging $50 after all the noise.