didn't he first say $1.71-$1.76? i won't wait for his next revision, if there is one.
unc. you guys count rigs and try to figure out production which is a lot harder than what am i am trying to figure. You might need to relax even more than me :)
give me crystal ball prediction for oil price and airlines pps and when it reaches that i will relax then ha!
January 2014 price was $2.92, so that's 18 cents a gallon for taxes and delivery. Assuming delivery stayed the same, the taxes come out to less since the sales price is less. By the time we get february's average spot price we should have a good idea of what AAL will spend on fuel then.
purchasing a home is an investment, one way or another. you are looking at the term investment too narrowly. they walked away for all sorts of reasons, (job loss, value decrease, should not have been qualified in the first place). The real "investors" in real estate looked upon this as an opportunity once things settled down. It's the "weak hands" that walked away, pardon the expression, because the situation was bleak at the time.
Same thing with oil now imo. Which is why it has stabilized so quickly even though the fundamentals do not support it. The panic sellers sold and brought it down, but it was overdone. Same as what happens in a pullback, recession, depression.
Instability causes panic, in all markets. which was my point to start with. Just look at how the market reacted the past couple of weeks after oil started rebounding. The market was fine when oil was over 100 and it was at lest stable. A commodity such as oil that crosses the economies of this many countries can do as much harm, as it can do good.
I will be sitting here waiting for my happy medium of mid priced oil and high priced airlines as a result.
you ever took statistics in college? they can make numbers say whatever they want. Always consider the source.
While one (layoff) would tend to lead to the other (foreclosure) it happens everyday in this country, the exasperation back then was due to a housing crash, or bubble.
while i personally think it's a funny joke mongo, i think it might be insensitive to some and this is not the forum for it. try your stuff out in a comedy club in nyc. we are pretty liberal here with jokes and they tell you right away to relax, it's just jokes. They say that mostly for the tourists who come for the show. The native new yorker's have thick skin and a sense of humor. Here is my lame attempt to add to your joke. "If a Rabbi was around, you know he is drinking for free". why do i encourage you sometimes? i guess because its 10 degrees out and it's a long weekend.
where did i say it's not a foreclosure?
//It's not as simple as "people laid off go into foreclosure". While that was surely a percentage of the population that foreclosed during this time, most simply walked away from a bad investment//
you are only taking part of my statement. Also, if you want to nitpick you can change most to some since i cannot quote the exact figures for each side.
i said there was also another reason for those foreclosures, the sub-primes you mention. which were not mentioned previously by the other poster.
There of course is a distinction between 2008 and the 1930's. The latter was a depression, which i in no means said we endured in 2008. In 2008 we incurred what is known and called by smarter people than myself when it comes to this "game" the great recession. It was a sheet show for a while you have to admit. which is why it is know as a greater than normal recession. it did fit the definition of a recession, no matter the length. it was "greatly" overdone.
For the record, I am more in the mind frame of a correction more so than anything more serious. The timing is about right historically (every 7-8 years). maybe the oil decline holds this off for our market a while longer, but that day will come. History repeats itself.
My concern is maybe the oil could be a driving force. Russia is already back to fighting, so much for peace. With Libya getting overrun by terrorists now for an oil grab for funding. Look for oil to keep heading up short term.
// banks doing crazy things with derivatives which were deregulated//
which goes to my point of the us (society) having to suffer for things we have no control over.
Thanks for the thoughts w!
If you read the definition of a recession, most if not all happened. I was just using the term that this time period is known for.. However, this was no blip on the radar. We came very close to a depression. Lots of people were underwater on their mortgages, Obama was extending un-employment benefits to 2 years! It was more than just a couple of quarters of negative growth. Our government bailed out the "too big too fail" banks, along with our large auto manufacturers. Like you said, once things go bad, it's tough to get it back on track (toothpaste in the tube).
It's not as simple as "people laid off go into foreclosure". While that was surely a percentage of the population that foreclosed during this time, most simply walked away from a bad investment. for example, why pay off 400k on a mortgage for a house that was at the time (2008) valued at only half of that because the market dictated it so. That had to do with things beyond their control, like oil is for us now.
I have not discounted anyone, scott. Don't put words on here for me. i just suggested a possible domino effect, if you will. You sound convinced of your statements, but it is a pure assumptions. My posts are written more in hypothetical form, as to generate discussion because it is impossible to know what the people in charge are thinking. i don't mind playing devil's advocate, but don't paint me as something i am not. check my posts about a happy medium between airlines and oil price. I will just say this. I would like an end to the volatility in oil, as i do not think that is good for anyone but the traders who happen to time it up right.
btw, I wasn't even really arguing the point of why it was done in 93' so no need for a long rebuttal on that. I was fine with your initial view. i was just stating mine. it's ok to think about things differently.
If enough entities made bad bets on oil, it can lead to something similar like "the great recession" we just had a few years ago. Maybe not that serious, but enough to hurt investors. I don't have a crystal ball, am just going by how i saw the markets react when oil was in the 40's. I like it when everyone is benefiting and happy. I prefer to err on the cautious side so am hedged, but at a point the airlines/oil plays will both see solid upside together imo and not just a hedge against one another. goodluck scott, we are all rooting for the same thing here.
93' bombing was a failure. what was the point of it then? no major damage or injuries. i think you are misunderstanding me as we both agree on choice of the wtc point.
Again with the extremes scott. maybe not a worst case scenario (outside of nukes but i wasn't referring to them). we agreed on the proxy war point. Yellen and the EU may not see oil decline as a negative, but there are other world leaders who do not see it the same way (Putin, and Opec too as they like high prices but not losing market share so they are squeezing now).
even worse today. my thermometer on my balcony is showing 15 degrees! with the gusts of wind it must feel close to 0 with the wind chill. watching the godfather on cinemax, relaxing with my once a week coffee (not irish, mongo). such a classic and costs me nothing.
depends what part. most i believe is on eastern like NY. some might be an hour behind. Ha! even cancun mexico is switching an hour over to eastern time by recent government decree.
the kings english is the british "dialect" of english, and we and definitely not uncle, speak like that.
Good reference though. Love that scene and movie.
it hit at a good time as most people are already at their destinations for the long weekend. hopefully everything on track by monday for when people fly home.
pretty decent offer. don't usually fly UAL or LUV so will have to look over their routes.
good idea on the costco prepaid cards also :)
Another snow storm. mostly by Chicago area. not bad here in NYC (yet). Snowflaks just started falling, but at a decent pace.
AAL already has some cancellations and offering free re-bookings. am assuming others are following suit.
Also a storm in Northern Japan.
Also, AAL allowing rebookings due to a "situation" in Italy. anyone know anything about that? it's listed on the AAL website.