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American Airlines Group Inc. Message Board

markusgzee 477 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 28, 2015 12:31 PM Member since: Dec 28, 2013
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  • markusgzee markusgzee Feb 5, 2015 10:56 AM Flag

    not sure about demand, since all the airlines insist demand remains strong. oil's decay will only help. don't look at this from a short-term view and let the recent action cloud that fact. One of our major costs has been dramatically reduced.
    this stock gets in its ruts here and there, for various reasons along the way. Unless we are back to 100 crude, we are sitting in a better position than other legacies.
    Right now we are just moving with oil. The current flavor of the month. Believe me when i tell you this will pass, as did all the other "headline" stories. Oil will not be forgotten, but no longer leading the headlines everyday. For now, we have to deal with it and the volatility we get with it. 2-3% moves everyday is nutty and can get exhausting.
    TO answer your question though, it is always slower on the way up than on the way down as far as pps during unsure times imo.

  • Reply to

    Jet Fuel and WTI

    by unclespeaking Feb 5, 2015 10:50 AM
    markusgzee markusgzee Feb 5, 2015 10:59 AM Flag

    it has to do with the costs reduction. for every 10% refiners cut off costs, they save $6-7 a barrel. i imagine they cut costs between Dec. and Feb.

  • markusgzee by markusgzee Feb 5, 2015 11:07 AM Flag

    Congrats holders of AAL, you have earned your divy today. hope it eases the pain of the past couple weeks somewhat.

  • markusgzee markusgzee Feb 5, 2015 11:09 AM Flag

    it actually does. the fall was overdone and this is just a bounce off that. momentum today, fundamentals another.

  • Where all we had to do was check on the stock, it's number/news and maybe a few others in the sector. Now i feel like i am overdosing on current events and oil speculation, on top of the usual dd in the company itself.

  • Reply to

    Jet Fuel and WTI

    by unclespeaking Feb 5, 2015 10:50 AM
    markusgzee markusgzee Feb 5, 2015 11:38 AM Flag

    thanks for the tip. will take a look when i can. have my hands full with the swings in airlines and oil related stocks.

  • Reply to

    logic and reason

    by a42unateinvestor Feb 5, 2015 12:14 PM
    markusgzee markusgzee Feb 5, 2015 12:39 PM Flag

    You have not followed this stock long my friend. or so it seems.
    Irrational is the name of the game in airlines, except this move is completely rational.
    DAL lifted the sector with earnings, so no surprise they drag it down with traffic report.
    -3.5% when you project flat for the Q is a no crock. Investors very concerned since DAL usually the stable one.
    Oil price is not set in stone, so people are rightfully concerned that this can be a short term windfall for the company. Without the oil savings, what are you left with? those pesky numbers that you don't want to hear about. Which are currently not good yoy, And I guess you don't want to hear about CASM, LF, etc.

    So let me tell you in terms you might like better.

    i think the next er report for AAL will be a turning point, once investors see the realized savings. they already guided for terrible metrics so shouldn't be surprise there. With all that has went on, we still sit at $48
    I am cautiously awaiting an underwhelming traffic report based on the DAL report. this isn't only about oil. Everyone gets that AAL will benefit at this point. If you don't want to hear about prasm, then you can't consider yourself a long term airline investor imo.

  • Reply to

    logic and reason

    by a42unateinvestor Feb 5, 2015 12:14 PM
    markusgzee markusgzee Feb 5, 2015 12:41 PM Flag

    Yes, very hard to attract buyers at this point. But it's not people like you and me we need. it's those same pux who brought it down to here. they will jump back on the buy side eventually.

  • Reply to

    Will WTI Oil Hold The $50 Dollar Mark?

    by dilo133 Feb 5, 2015 12:42 PM
    markusgzee markusgzee Feb 5, 2015 12:54 PM Flag

    fundamentals don't imply that. but since when do those matter :)

    In what time frame are you asking about? If today, then yes if you go by the close price at 2:30. Tomorrow? honestly, who knows at this point. Even the street is split. I would say it drops a small amount tomorrow, but like i said good luck calling it day to day. have to wait for news and allow time to go by, Every day we are on here talking and trading with oil still at these levels, regardless of 44 or 50, is another day we get to fly on cheap fuel. A call like yours with brent price in the fall is more appropriate than trying to figure where it heads next. Maybe oil shouldn't be in the low 40's as you can see that hurt the market, and in turn us in the short term. Now oil is rising and so is the market, but hurting us again. Have to just Hold and wait imo. will add if it dips after the traffic report, but am hopeful for a surprise since they guided 2-4% down on prsam for Q1 already. If we come in closer to 2 than the 4% end for January, which is tough considering what DAL just reported, the stock will begin trading on it's fundamentals again. it is a wait and see for now imo.

  • Reply to

    logic and reason

    by a42unateinvestor Feb 5, 2015 12:14 PM
    markusgzee markusgzee Feb 5, 2015 2:04 PM Flag

    agreed. am hoping it is already priced in, and any upside in numbers will have a nice positive impact

  • markusgzee markusgzee Feb 5, 2015 2:17 PM Flag

    was there buyback done already you know about unc?

  • markusgzee by markusgzee Feb 5, 2015 3:34 PM Flag

    only half the normal average 10-day volume today. hopefully set new high-low now that selling has dried up and will start to attract new buyers.

  • Reply to

    Stay Engaged, don't argue with the market!

    by unclespeaking Feb 5, 2015 3:30 PM
    markusgzee markusgzee Feb 5, 2015 3:36 PM Flag

    shhhh unc. let the dead fish heads sleep with the fishes....fish heads on top of fish heads.

  • Reply to

    Stay Engaged, don't argue with the market!

    by unclespeaking Feb 5, 2015 3:30 PM
    markusgzee markusgzee Feb 5, 2015 3:49 PM Flag

    it's normal for february. nothing we haven't seen before. just cold temps as usual but that wind that i spoke of last week is kicking up hard. very gusty winds. if it was 60 degrees here now, then i would be worried. same thing for the 30 years i been here.

  • Reply to

    Low volume

    by markusgzee Feb 5, 2015 3:34 PM
    markusgzee markusgzee Feb 5, 2015 3:50 PM Flag

    lmao!! uncle i fell out my chair with this post.

  • Reply to

    Stay Engaged, don't argue with the market!

    by unclespeaking Feb 5, 2015 3:30 PM
    markusgzee markusgzee Feb 5, 2015 3:51 PM Flag

    don't tell the fish heads that ALK just went positive and JBLU has been green for over an hour.

  • Reply to

    Low volume

    by markusgzee Feb 5, 2015 3:34 PM
    markusgzee markusgzee Feb 5, 2015 5:31 PM Flag

    it's not about the money, i just enjoy it. no hangover's unlike other spirits (at least for me). tastes good too.
    but for the record am not even close to being always being drunk. i drink twice a month max. don't even keep beer in the fridge, which annoys my friends :) i spoke of drinking on here twice in one year and am a drunk now?
    am not the one always on here rambling much ado about nothing and always angry?
    are you an angry drunk mongo? is that what it is.

  • Reply to

    S350

    by mongolianswampstopper Feb 5, 2015 11:03 PM
    markusgzee markusgzee Feb 5, 2015 11:47 PM Flag

    how is the trunk space on the GLK. my range rover lease is ending soon. it has terrible trunk space, mainly because it's sporty (it's the Evoque model). With a kid almost here i am looking at trunk space as my first criteria when picking a new car.

  • Reply to

    June 6th to now

    by scottmmoore826 Feb 5, 2015 6:55 PM
    markusgzee markusgzee Feb 6, 2015 12:01 AM Flag

    given the fact they already guided down 2-4%, if they guide 5% or worse it will be a killer (obviously). They need to be in-line from here on out at the least with the low numbers already given imo
    Also, DAL missed on prasm, but like bears noted increased it's rev's on overall RASM. That is the part that will cover everything when they report eps/profits for Q1. Lower PRASM when adding capacity as much as they are is like adding 2+2. Also, their demand remained strong, except for the pacific, but that could be seasonal.
    Also, if really concerned with PRASM, it should improve throughout the year according to guidance.
    Oil is unstable, lower metrics....it's the perfect time for a breather and to set up a new base. After all, we are still sitting at just below $49

  • markusgzee markusgzee Feb 6, 2015 9:52 AM Flag

    the loser is the person with nothing better to do than spam the mb.

AAL
48.95-0.44(-0.89%)May 4 4:00 PMEDT