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Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. Message Board

marleydog216 11 posts  |  Last Activity: May 21, 2016 11:21 AM Member since: Feb 4, 2014
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  • Reply to

    Holy sheet. Smelldex reached $4

    by ooo_key_doke May 20, 2016 3:55 PM
    marleydog216 marleydog216 May 21, 2016 11:21 AM Flag

    Without any news, it is following the IBB closely. We will see a run up to ASCO and then we will see a drop afterwards unless there is some news.

  • Reply to

    Timing on the next share offering

    by marleydog216 May 20, 2016 6:51 PM
    marleydog216 marleydog216 May 21, 2016 11:03 AM Flag

    Kind of hard to let people go when you have 15 open positions on the web-site. Don't see a reduction in head count any time soon.

  • There have been some recent postings that CLDX will not raise capital until 2018. In my view, this is not realistic based on historical data from CLDX.

    Latest quarterly cash was $254 million. Based on CLDX last report, they indicated that they have enough cash to last through the 1st half of 2018. They would have to average a cash burn of $28 million each quarter to basically run out of money by the middle of 2018. Last quarter cash burn was $34.9 million which is reflective of their increased payroll and expenses around Rindo. Let's hope that their cash burn levels will decrease due to the stop of Rindo but they still have the issue of higher headcount that they have to manage.

    Prior to the share offering in Dec. of 2013, CLDX had $136 million in the bank. Prior to the share offering in February 2015, CLDX had $201 million in the bank. Based on this history and the current rate of cash burn, the most likely next stock offering will be either 4th quarter 2016 or 1st quarter 2017. Question will be if the offering will occur after some sort of positive news. Unless they come up with some revenue stream, I don't see how they will avoid this.

    I still believe that CLDX is way undervalued at current levels and their current pipeline. But I want to be realistic when I believe that they will have to raise cash.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • marleydog216 by marleydog216 May 6, 2016 6:31 AM Flag

    After watching the struggles over the last few years, we finally have approval to proceed with the underground. Congrats to the Oyu Tolgoi team! Would not be surprised about a RIO takeover in the coming months.

    From Bloomberg:
    Rio Tinto Group and its partners approved a $5.3 billion expansion to more than double output at the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine in Mongolia as producers race to meet a forecast global deficit by the end of the decade.
    Work on the project will begin from the middle of this year and first production from the underground mine is expected in 2020, London-based Rio, the world’s-second biggest mining company, said Friday in a statement. When the underground is fully ramped up in 2027, Oyu Tolgoi is expected to produce more than 500,000 metric tons of copper a year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Shitake

    by johnson_navinr Apr 26, 2016 9:52 AM
    marleydog216 marleydog216 Apr 30, 2016 7:58 AM Flag

    I really think that RIO, TRQ, and the Mongolian government want to give the go ahead prior to the election. Reasons:

    1) RIO doesn't want to the project seen as being open, giving a potential new government an opportunity to try to negotiate a new deal.
    2) The current government wants to be seen as the group that got things done and they can show this to Mongolian people prior to the election.
    3) A new government would be hard press to start making changes to an agreement and risk a potential hold on the project when the economy has been struggling.

    I see thing going into a positive direction over the next month. RIO board meeting is next Thursday. TRQ 1st quarter review is Thursday after the RIO board meeting. I expect we will here something positive on Thursday and will see a positive move in the stock.

    Seems like we are the only ones currently making any comments on this board. I was involved in other stocks so I was away from the board. But now back again.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Shitake

    by johnson_navinr Apr 26, 2016 9:52 AM
    marleydog216 marleydog216 Apr 27, 2016 8:38 PM Flag

    I think you pickup an earlier article. Latest news from April 19th:

    Negotiations fell through on Wednesday between the MPP, which ruled when Mongolia was a one-party state under Soviet hegemony before 1990, and the breakaway Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party (MPRP). The two sides disagreed over how seats would be divided in an electoral pact, according to a statement from the MPP.

    "It would have been a hit with the electorate because they're splitting each other's votes," said Dale Choi, analyst and head of the Mongolian Metals & Mining research group, about the proposed campaign pact. "It absolutely would have given the MPP the upper hand."

  • Reply to

    During the second quarter

    by johnson_navinr Apr 12, 2016 5:38 PM
    marleydog216 marleydog216 Apr 15, 2016 6:27 AM Flag

    See report from the UB post today:

    In an interview with News.mn, Executive Director of Erdenes Oyu Tolgoi D.Ganbold spoke about Oyu Tolgoi’s underground mine project and emphasized that starting in July the company will hire hundreds of Mongolians for the mine’s expansion.
    He said that the underground mine’s development launched in December 2015, after the signing of a financial agreement for the mine’s expansion. “Some work even started before signing the agreement. The Mongolian side pressured for intensifying the underground mine’s development by March. However, negotiations with 14 international banks have started recently. Everything is ongoing in accordance with our plans.”
    Ganbold said that the process of spending financing from the International Finance Corporation has started. “Other banks will distribute financing according to their timetables. Some of the financing will be deposited next year. We will spend the money over a couple of years. It doesn’t mean that all of the money will be distributed at once. We need to understand everything properly,” underlined Ganbold. He said that the underground mine’s operations have commenced and the company is in the process of ordering necessary equipment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Connecting the dots to FDA approval

    by monarch6500 Mar 10, 2016 3:53 PM
    marleydog216 marleydog216 Mar 11, 2016 6:32 AM Flag

    Be aware that CLDX's Rintega trial failed on 3/4/2016 failed not because the of the drug but the control arm did much better than expected. There was plenty of historical data showing the control arm was supposed to do worse than Rintega but there were warning signs as early as 2012 in CLDX's reporting that showed that control arm patients of other studies matched to the Rintega study were getting better care and living longer. A lot of CLDX shareholders got burned by this (me included) so I am just giving fair warning that the control arm is the main wild card. I believe this was the concern of the NWBO lead investigator who raised subtle concerns about the control arm. Use your head and do research in making your decision to invest in NWBO ; not your heart.

  • Reply to

    Some thoughts on Rindo.

    by rinostarr14 Mar 2, 2016 3:16 PM
    marleydog216 marleydog216 Mar 2, 2016 4:34 PM Flag

    Rino - thanks for your detail thoughts on Rindo. It is always good to hear perspective from someone in the medical field.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Some thoughts on Rindo.

    by rinostarr14 Mar 2, 2016 3:16 PM
    marleydog216 marleydog216 Mar 2, 2016 4:24 PM Flag

    February 17th, 2015. I think an id that is over a year old would certainly qualify for anyone for discussion, unless your name is Dorris!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • marleydog216 by marleydog216 Feb 28, 2016 9:43 AM Flag

    I believe many of us thought the the lack of news on the 2nd interim look meant that the event threshold had not been hit yet. Based on the conference call last week, that was a wrong assumption since CLDX indicated that 75% of the events occurred in late 2015.

    The million dollar question is why is taking the DSMB until March to communicate a result? Are they just busy to the point it takes 8 to 12 weeks to do a review? Do we assume that it also took the DSMB 2-3 months to review the 1st interim results? Even though 75% of the events occurred at the end of 2015, will the DSMB review any addition data for January and February? I would assume additional events have occurred since the end of 2015. This would definitely affect results since any additional data would show a benefit of the survival tail as described in the conference call.

    Thoughtful comments are appreciated.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

TRQ
2.775-0.075(-2.63%)11:25 AMEDT