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Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. Message Board

marleydog216 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 19, 2015 9:54 AM Member since: Feb 4, 2014
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  • I am estimating 4th quarter sales at $634 million based on today's 4th quarter production release. This is a significant improvement over previous quarters due to 1) mining in a high grade zone, and 2) further draw down of inventory. I expect to see a significant increase in cash flow during the next quarterly review since TRQ has been debt free since last quarter.

    My assumptions include a 6.8% reduction in gold prices, 6.4% reduction in copper prices, and a 19.5% reduction in silver prices. Prices are comparing month over month averages of 4th quarter 2014 to 3rd quarter 2014.

    4th qtr copper price estimate: $5305 per ton
    4th qtr gold price estimate: $1029 per ounce
    4th qtr silver price estimate: $12.95 per ounce

    Prices above used TRQ's 3rd quarter sales price and my 4th quarter % price reduction estimate.

    Copper: $5305 per ton x 67600 tons = $358.62 million
    Gold: $1029 per ounce x 263000 ounces = $270.63 million
    Silver: $12.95 per ounce x 383000 ounces = $4.96 million

    Total: $634 million

    At $2.73 per share, TRQ is a steal at this price and is below book value. However, any price appreciation assumes as always that the 2nd phase will finally be released and this is 100% driving the value of the stock at the moment. Back in September, the price went over $4.00 based on a rumor that a deal was going to be done. How do you want to position yourself? WOOF

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Let;s see if this makes a difference for the negotiations with Oyu Tolgoi. Key is who the new ministers will be and are they part of the political apparatus that has caused so much problems in the past. We should know later in the week.

    From the UB Post on Saturday, Nov. 29th:
    The Democratic Party’s (DP) recently appointed Prime Minister Ch.Saikhanbileg will join hands with the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), the opposition party in Parliament, to form a coalition government that promises to end the economic crisis without taking on more national debt.
    At Saturday’s MPP meeting, over 200 members of the party voted to form a coalition government at the request of the Prime Minister, a decision backed by the Mongolian Employers’ United Association and Trade Union.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • marleydog216 marleydog216 Nov 16, 2014 10:05 PM Flag

    I guess we have a different candidate for Prime Minister: Head of cabinet secretary Ch. Saikhanbileg. The party still needs to form a coalition with other groups. This all has to play out before movement occurs at OT.

    Interesting reading about the political situation at:

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Comments from proposed PM R. Amarjargal back in February. Possible insight on how he feels about OT. WOOF

    MP R.Amarjargal said in an interview published yesterday in among other things ( quotes are OT-related only and are out of context)
    OT IA is not perfect. but we could not have established a better agreement. there are no free things in this universe. if you don't have experience, no knowledge, if you don't have practice working on agreement and project of this magnitude, if you have not learned to properly use mechanisms to find proper information from proper source, if state decision making mechanism is weak, if political parties pawn one the other, this is IA that you get.
    of course, as time goes by, things will show up - we lost here we did this there. I think that this can be fixed. but in systematic, thorough and methodical way. On the other hand, spur of the moment attempts, flipping back does not improve but worsens Mongolia's reputation. OT IA is a accumulated display of everything that is working and not working in Mongolia.
    OT is indeed project that must move.
    when project stops, indeed there is no need for shovels. when OT stopped almost 2000-3000 enterprises went out of business, and thousands of jobs lost. this also impacts rest of economy.
    even if we fix the OT IA and make it perfect and start work, at the very least 2 years are required until economy will normalize and revive

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Any estimates for the 3rd quarter financial report? I am estimated an EPS of $0.02 and total revenue of $473 million (excluding South Gobi). I am assuming costs staying the same as 2Q and higher income due to higher grades. We will see if the repair of the tailing thickeners had an impact on expenses. WOOF

  • Interesting reading on the state of Mongolia politics. Or should I say the dysfunctional state of Mongolian politics . . WOOF

  • marleydog216 by marleydog216 Nov 5, 2014 6:39 AM Flag

    I can now understand the statements on Oct. 21st from Rio copper head Jean Sebastian Jacques about Mongolia. Prime Minister now sacked, government ministers (including mining) not approved yet during reorganization. Does not bode well for resolution in 4th quarter. As positive as I try to be about the project, I just cannot see anything getting done while the Mongolian side continues to be in political turmoil. There needs to be a current statement from the Mongolian side where they want this project to go. We do not need news from a month ago that was recently published. As seen in the last "news"" from the Mongolian side, anything seen as positive caused TRQ stock to jump. WOOF

  • Reply to

    Bloomberg - Deal by End of 2014

    by runninghunter1967 Oct 31, 2014 11:30 AM
    marleydog216 marleydog216 Nov 2, 2014 6:48 AM Flag

    We all hope this is resolved this quarter. The Prime Minister asked at the end of September (just reported now) that the agreement be completed by year end. RIO copper head Jean Sebastian Jacques indicated on October 21st that after 18 months a deal is on the table and the GOM needs to decide what to do. So the "news"" in September that the Prime Minister wanted something done really is not current news. I believe RIO is putting on the pressure because TRQ will have to respond to shareholder's questions mid-November during the quarterly report. If nothing has happened by the quarterly report, then we have about a month to go because nothing is going to get done the last few weeks of December. I really believe RIO wants final clarity on future tax considerations. Why invest if the GOM is just going to change the rules later?

    And the "news" that RIO is poised for $2.5 billion writedown really isn't news since all the reporter is doing is reviewing information in earlier financial reports. There is nothing new here. WOOF

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