There is always profit taking on major news. The important thing today was the 3m volume. That is the kind of volume that makes options disappear rapidly and all of them need to disappear before spectacular price gains can occur. The creditor who made this all possible, DMRJ, must be paid first. Fact of life.
I am a nice guy once you get to know me ;-). I am genuinely pleased for all you guys. The debt dynamics of your company just frightens me to death but my God, in the end your management delivered on *all* their optimistic promises. This little company actually does have a product that the TSA prefer enough to spend $162m on even if it is another dual-IMS product and all you true believers were right about that. Your courage has been rewarded and you needed a hell of lot of courage to invest in this stock if you looked at the loss numbers every quarter.
That's unavoidable with the debt/option structure this company has but today is only day one of the future and 50+ more 3m trading days like today and even DMRJ's options will be gone. Today really is only the beginning and as long as Longs are patient and don't expect big gains straightaway they will get a price over $2 in the end. The most important thing though is that this company is very unlikely to go bankrupt now so their investment should be safe. It really did need an imminent $160m order to provide that level of security considering how much monetary investment it has taken to get to this stage. The cavalry in the end arrived.
All previous TSA purchases have come through IDIQs. IMSC's IDIQ is already public on the FPDS database and its IVD ID is 7013/HSTS0415DCT2011 and I posted a link to it earlier. An IDIQ is a statement of intent to buy and it indicates what government agencies have budgeted and intend to buy. Now not all the IDIQ amount may be purchased for technical logistics reasons but the original intent always is for the full amount to be purchased and I know this from experience with ASTC's IDIQs. Normally IDIQs are shared awards where many companies get to divide the spoils, but not in this case and the award is big enough to imply the whole existing TSA ETD fleet will be replaced which is the most optimistic scenario Longs have been suggesting.
This IDIQ also runs out in a year which implies the full amount is expected to be ordered within a year from now even if it is not all delivered in that year. The full amount of the IDIQ is $161,849,741 which can be seen from viewing the FPDS entry. This potential large order is real and is just waiting on the actual batch delivery amounts to be agreed with IMSC. Now you should know by now I speak the truth as I see it and I have never been an IMSC long.
'mars- exactly, by 9-30-15 while Smiths 600 is still in cert., the fleet will be turned over, All 2880 plus a 10% reserve ( min.) or a solid 3000 to 3200 units will be replaced. So now the key question, which comes first, DMRJ's conversion or TSA's first purchase? '
Yes, the Smiths 600 looks like it has missed the 2015 TSA non-radioactive boat and I can't see them replacing the B220 with it afterwards as being a little lighter does not seem a good enough reason to me. Next upgrade from the B220 will probably be IMSC's dual-IMS/quadrople MS next-gen system a few years down the line. As for DMRJ's debt conversion that is probably happening right now. A cumulative 100+m trading volume from here and all DMRJ's convertible debt should be gone and then the stock will keep its gains then. This company and stock looks like it will have a happy ending after all and your most optimistic scenarios look like they are coming true. Congratulations.
because you are still all doing such a #$%$-poor job of DD even when the best pump material you will ever have presents itself. I have to do everything for you guys lol.
As for debt it should all be made convertible so the company has some reserve cash left when this contract is done as it's not likely to be repeated any time soon.
tdcomm2, you are letting me down with all this uncharacteristic low-balling of yours here. A million dollars buys you say 30 B220s ? $162m would buy you about 4800 then. They all have to be ordered within the next year otherwise the contract runs out, seems like an entire TSA ETD fleet change has been authorized to me.
It looks like a 1-year IDIQ to me which means the whole $162m order could happen in the following year. Did the TSA just blow their whole FY2015 ETD budget on IMSC ? Looks like it to me, why it's a tdcomm2 wet dream fantasy come true lol !! This company needs about $40m revenue to break even and it might take you a year or so to deliver all those units but still it sure seems like this company could register its first profitable quarter next year some time ! Welcome to the club !
FPDS link here as yahoo won't let me post it
so if I am reading this right the TSA could possibly order $162m in the following year which would not be a bad scenario for the long suffering Longs here.
Yes single award and It's actually even better than that if you check the FPDS contract link
Multiple Or Single Award IDV: Single Award
Last Date to Order (mm/dd/yyyy) :11/10/2015
The stock is in a very stable position with the moving average support pyramid ready to support any big earnings spike. The stock is primed and ready !
Highest recent moving averages hang out there like the 120 MA. If the stock can get above 2.72 it will keep going up steadily even when the volume dries up.
Book value is around $24m and currently profits are around $7m a year which means that current market cap of $43m will be reached in only 3 years. Seriously, a forward p/e of only 3 ?!!!! If that is not a serious undervaluation I don't know what is !!
which just goes to prove there was ZERO valid sane reasons for the drastic fall from $4.22 !!!
It was a strategic mistake on Pickens part to give up that lawsuit which the judge said should go to trial as there was a case to answer.