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Intel Corporation Message Board

marsavian 396 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 24, 2014 7:04 PM Member since: Jun 15, 2005
  • marsavian marsavian Nov 20, 2014 12:17 PM Flag

    'The debt will be restructured and IMSC will be a 15-30$ per share company in a few years or purchased for 5=10$. That seems like a high probability right now. '

    Diluted share count is 100-180m depending on whether you can get rid of DMRJ which is unlikely as Buldoc loves them so much.

    At $5 this makes it a $500-900m company
    At $10 this makes it a $1.0-1.8bn company
    At $15 this makes it a $1.5-2.7bn company
    At $30 this makes it a $3.0-5.4bn company

    So you are saying IMSC is going to be $3-5bn company in a few years at a $30 share price ! Quite frankly you should be arrested for even posting such dangerous bagholder-creating nonsense !

  • marsavian marsavian Nov 20, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    This story does not end well ;-) ....

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RoboCop

  • Reply to

    Stock price action on the opening

    by pa1702 Nov 20, 2014 9:43 AM
    marsavian marsavian Nov 20, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    Could be a Whale or the Company is following my advice. Once 2.90 is turned into support it will become a beachhead for easy repeated assaults on the resistance in the 3s until it finally beaks down releasing the stock into the 4+ zone.

  • Reply to

    Strong price action into the close

    by pa1702 Nov 19, 2014 4:24 PM
    marsavian marsavian Nov 19, 2014 8:11 PM Flag

    The support to 2.90 has started ;-). I know my TA, if the company supports it at that price retail investors will do the rest with all the moving averages under them and send it repeatedly crashing into the 3+s.

  • marsavian marsavian Nov 19, 2014 2:03 PM Flag

    My numbers are based on known actual facts i.e. official govt contracts not the vague arm and hand waving everyone else indulges in on this board. Seems nobody likes inconvenient truths here ;-).

  • marsavian marsavian Nov 19, 2014 1:55 PM Flag

    Oh if only IMSC could see numbers like $2, $3, $4 on a regular basis lol ! If that's 'trouble' for ASTC what does that say about IMSC which can't even hold $1.40 any more and there is no more good news to come yet still 90m+ DMRJ options still out there ?! I don't think ASTC is the stock in trouble here lol. As for the director selling she still held back some shares and the company bought back and retired her shares so the share count was actually reduced by that action, obviously had some pressing purchase she wanted to make with the money. In fact ASTC has enough money to buy their retail float twice over, they could take the stock to $10 just by buybacks with their free cash if they wanted to lol. These are luxuries that IMSC will never have to concern itself with ;-).

  • marsavian marsavian Nov 19, 2014 12:59 PM Flag

    ASTC shares are still worth about twice an IMSC share when only a couple years back an IMSC share used to be worth two ASTC shares so I am happy to reply ASTC is doing just fine and it will do even better in the future and become a $5 stock over the coming years when the 1stDetect IP fully permeates and flexes its muscles in the spectrometer marketplace. Also no debt options in that stock to crush any rallys as total diluted share count has been under 20m for 7 years now and counting ;-).

  • marsavian marsavian Nov 19, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    Ok, let's do the math from a financial year POV. Buldoc above has said that he expect FY2015 to come in around $20m+. He has also said the 1170 units will be delivered from Dec 2014 to Sep 2015 i.e over 10 months with about 120 in each month. So FY2015 will contain ~70% of the order. 70% of $21.5m is about $15m. This quarter saw $1.8m other sales, say $1.5m normal average, multiply that by 4 and add to 15m and you get $21m which is pretty close to what Buldoc said.

    Now you said it would be unprofitable at that rate, not necessarily at full factory floor utilization and there will be full QS-B220 factory floor utilization from next month for the following 10 months processing flat out the TSA and other orders. You will have to wait for FY2015Q3 to be reported in May 2015 to see how profitable or unprofitable full factory floor utilization but it is obvious that under $20K is very cheap and the TSA will come calling again with more orders if they remain that cheap meaning that a $162m IDIQ could keep IMSC busy for the next 70-80 months i.e. 6 years at that rate. Even if you are only mildly profitable each quarter that sustained level of profitability will burn up all of DMRJ/Management options over time and allow for stock appreciation on top. There you go, I have produced an optimistic IMSC scenario and I did not have to make a single thing up ;-). That's how you should present believable optimistic DD.

  • 1st Detect Corporation, a subsidiary of Astrotech Corporation (ASTC), announced today that its RoHS compliant OEM-1000PI mass spectrometer has been certified by Underwriter Laboratories as a recognized component meeting IEC 61010-1:2010 (3rd Edition) standards. Recognized component status enables our OEM customers to safely integrate the OEM-1000PI into their own products.

    “We are committed to offering products and technologies that have compelling features and are also compliant with International Safety Standards,” said Thomas B Pickens III, Chairman and CEO of 1st Detect. “Our OEM customers can now confidently integrate the OEM-1000PI product into safe solutions.”

    “Our emphasis on delivering products that are standards based is clearly demonstrated by the RoHS and safety compliance certifications on the OEM-1000PI product,” added David Rafferty, President and CTO of 1st Detect.

    1st Detect Corporation has developed an instrument that revolutionizes the chemical detection and analysis market by delivering lab performance mass spectrometry in a small, affordable and easily portable package. The 1st Detect mass spectrometer is capable of detecting a wide variety of chemicals including residues and vapors from explosives, chemical warfare agents, toxic chemicals, food and beverage contaminants, and pollutants. These abilities make it an ideal tool for a variety of applications in the research, security, industrial, process flow and healthcare markets.

    About 1st Detect Corporation

    1st Detect Corporation was formed by Astrotech Corporation (ASTC) to develop and commercialize miniature mass spectrometry technology first developed under an agreement with NASA for use on the International Space Station. 1st Detect offers a breakthrough miniaturized mass spectrometer that fills an unmet need by being highly accurate, rapid, lightweight, and cost-effective. For more information on 1st Detect Corporation, please visit www.1stDetect.com.

    About Astrotech Corporation

    Astrotech is a leader in identifying and commercializing space technology for terrestrial use. 1st Detect Corporation is developing what we believe is a breakthrough miniaturized mass spectrometer, the MMS-1000™, while Astrogenetix, Inc. is a biotechnology company utilizing microgravity as a research platform for drug discovery and development. Both are wholly owned subsidiaries of the parent.

  • Reply to

    100,000 share buyback by the company

    by pa1702 Nov 19, 2014 6:15 AM
    marsavian marsavian Nov 19, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    Not necessarily if the sale tax is based on a percentage calculation rather than a block outstanding amount. As for the Director sale the 8-K said she was told she might not be in possession of all material facts before she sold which sure sounds like a personal reason for the sale to me. Total non-event IMO.

  • http://www.defensedaily.com/eletters/hsr-nov-19-2014/

    Bolduc says a “good part” of the order for the 1,170 units will be shipped in Implant’s current fiscal year, which ends in June 2015. The company reported $1.8 million in sales in its first quarter and with the TSA contracts sees more than $20 million for the fiscal year, he says.

    Bolduc, however, says that the ID/IQ contract has options that could extend the contract into future years, although the number of years it can be extended for “is anyone’s guess.” He suggests that the $162 million potential says something about TSA’s needs and expects the new business to continue into the federal government’s fiscal year 2016, which begins on Oct. 1, 2015.

  • Reply to

    100,000 share buyback by the company

    by pa1702 Nov 19, 2014 6:15 AM
    marsavian marsavian Nov 19, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    Remember when Adams sold a lot around a dollar a couple years ago on the open market ? He's still got most of his holding left and he's still a Director. Seems to me just like then it was for a specific personal financial reason this sale was made as otherwise like you said the full amount would have been sold.

  • Reply to

    100,000 share buyback by the company

    by pa1702 Nov 19, 2014 6:15 AM
    marsavian marsavian Nov 19, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    another benefit in doing buybacks in the rest of this financial year (7+ months to next June) is that some/all of it may be clawed back from the $2.8m ASO sales profit tax that is currently provisionally penciled in for this year. It could be free money that would otherwise go to the IRS. The case for reforming the TA Moving Average Support pyramid at 2.90 using buybacks for FY2015 is fully made I believe ;-).

  • Reply to

    100,000 share buyback by the company

    by pa1702 Nov 19, 2014 6:15 AM
    marsavian marsavian Nov 19, 2014 7:29 AM Flag

    The even better news is that the company remembered after all these years that it even has an official unused authorised outstanding stock buy-back facility of about $6.5m !!

    Defend $2.90 with it, TBP the 3rd ! You know I am right and it make monetary sense for long-term stock shareholder value !!

  • marsavian marsavian Nov 18, 2014 8:24 PM Flag

    yet more slanderous basher libel, he's been a happily married man for many decades now.

  • Reply to

    Will this thing ever see green again?

    by wishtoretiresoon Nov 17, 2014 3:09 PM
    marsavian marsavian Nov 18, 2014 6:43 PM Flag

    It would not take more than 400-500K shares bought to turn 2.90 into rock-solid support IMO, just over a million dollars ? Pfft, loose change for Astrotech now lol ;-). The resistance in the 3s is the much harder part but with a favorable TA wind behind it (i.e. all recent moving averages) the stock will do it naturally over time, just support it at 2.90 and the stock will do the rest.

  • Reply to

    Will this thing ever see green again?

    by wishtoretiresoon Nov 17, 2014 3:09 PM
    marsavian marsavian Nov 18, 2014 6:28 PM Flag

    If Pickens wants my advice, and he has been known to take it from time to time :), just support the stock up to 2.90 where all the highest moving averages are so that the moving average support pyramid is fully reformed and then the stock will start going up under its own steam due to TA factors.

  • Reply to

    Will this thing ever see green again?

    by wishtoretiresoon Nov 17, 2014 3:09 PM
    marsavian marsavian Nov 18, 2014 6:06 PM Flag

    You need to keep a certain amount of cash back for future R&D, production and acquisitions and lean years but still the company could have a lot of fun using currently what's left of the authorized buyback facility, ~$6.5m to raise the price and that amount is negligible to Astrotech's future needs. Frankly they could spend $20-30m in buybacks and buy up all the retails shares and it still wouldn't matter as otherwise I don't expect the free cash to drop below $40m+ in the future ... ever !

  • Reply to

    Will this thing ever see green again?

    by wishtoretiresoon Nov 17, 2014 3:09 PM
    marsavian marsavian Nov 18, 2014 5:59 PM Flag

    'In May 2013, 1st Detect completed build-out of a new 16,000 square foot leased research and development, and production facility in Webster, Texas. This new facility is equipped with state-of-the art laboratories, a clean room, a production shop and offices for staff. The term of the lease is 62 months and includes two additional five year options. The agreement also includes a right of first refusal on an adjacent space to accommodate future growth requirements.

    We believe that our current facilities and equipment are well maintained and in good condition, and are adequate for our present and foreseeable needs.'

  • marsavian marsavian Nov 18, 2014 5:51 PM Flag

    typo, should have wrote 'used the currently authorized $6m+$1m (~$6.55m left) buyback facility.'

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