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American Science & Engineering Inc. Message Board

marsavian 281 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Jun 15, 2005
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  • marsavian marsavian 5 hours ago Flag

    Intel has wasted enough money on big company purchases that never worked out. If it wanted to it could do exactly the same as Mediatek and license the same ARM IP and make it cheaper than Mediatek or anyone else due to its advanced foundry process and it would cost virtually nothing to do it so Freedman does not understand how intrinsically overvalued Mediatek currently is.

    The way you should view Intel's assault on mobile is the same way you should view Intel's assault on Servers which started with Pentium Pro decades ago, ~5% marketshare chunk improvements every year until they end up being No.1 with all the profits and so far so good if you view the starting point as CloverTrail as all the Atoms before that were really netbook PC chips. They also have brought a dual-core quad-threaded Core down to the 4W TDP level (Core-M) which means their profit share in mobility will easily exceed their unit share going forward. I really don't know why so many non-INTC investors are so obsessed about Intel's participation in mobility but it really is not and never was an issue as PCs never really died and are now going back up again. It is not an essential must-have business to Intel although listening to you guys you would think it's a life or death issue for Intel lol.

  • marsavian marsavian 5 hours ago Flag

    On the positive side just like I always knew the Space business had buyers in the last resort e.g. LMT/BA etc we now know Rigaku is a buyer of last resort here so the IP here is not worthless.

  • marsavian marsavian 12 hours ago Flag

    It's hard to analyze the unknown and unforecasted. Before it was relatively easy to work out this company sales because the rocket launches were known in advance. Pickens will have to get more pro-active and start giving out proper forecasts and progress reports like grown up serious CEOs do. On the other hand knowing him he will probably just do nothing and the first the investors will know about any sales is when they are reported in the 10-Qs. Obviously the MMS-1000 has not sold beyond about a dozen yet which is not good but the Rigaku analyzer has yet to hit the market but again how many of those will be sold each quarter. I must admit this company does not look so attractive to me without its Space business. Too many unknowns now but it does have many years of cash burn-rate to get its new act together.

  • marsavian marsavian 13 hours ago Flag

    He's a bigger idiot than you. Mediatek is just a generic ARM licensee, one of many Intel will eventually destroy, it has no unique IP and it is worthless to Intel. Intel has already teamed up with Rockchip to make Atoms specifically for the Chinese market and it did not cost any billions to do so.

  • Reply to

    mars the intel apologist

    by eir951 16 hours ago
    marsavian marsavian 13 hours ago Flag

    So many words, so very little actual content apart from a lot of hand and arm waving. All this great revenue-producing IP Nvidia is supposed to have yet they still rely on Intel to give them half their profits every quarter lol ! After 2016 you will need to replace that with new profits from real sales because that license gravy train is ending then.

    As for Intel stale design what a load of BS, Core is now on its 5th geberation with Broadwell, a chip that will have 2-4 times the performance/power of any other competing chip. If you think that is stale then you are just plain stupid but of that I had no doubt reading your inane delusional posts over the years. If Core-M was priced the same as any K1, K1 devices would just not sell as it could not beat it on any performance or power metric. It is only because Intel is more interested in making money than squashing insignificant insects like Nvidia or AMD that K1 and other merchant ARM chips like it can exist. As for Samsung, Apple and Qualcomm they have their own unique IP and modem/device ecosystems and will not be easily dislodged by anyone but Intel stands a better chance than Nvidia who just threw the towel in on modems and phones.

  • Reply to

    mars the intel apologist

    by eir951 16 hours ago
    marsavian marsavian 13 hours ago Flag

    Intel is not struggling in mobile though. It destroyed WindowsRT very easily and now has about 10% tablet maketshare starting for 0% only a couple years ago unlike Nvidia which has gone exactly nowhere in that time and is selling no more Tegras now then when it had Tegra 1,2,3 etc. Always late with designs.

    'New processes are expensive and they can’t afford to give it away. So they won’t. '

    The die cost for Core-M is only about $10, that leaves a huge range above that to pay for everything else and anyway they could still continue to charge a lot for the 4 GHz desktop skus, see that's what happens when you attack more than one market unlike one-trick pony Nvidia.

    ' Intels biggest success in mobile is in a product that requires an expensive operating system'

    Windows is now free for tablets under 10" and MSFT like INTC can vary their pricing as they see fit to fight off competitive threats. Anyway your statement just proves what a desirable ecosystem Wintel is if people are prepared to pay top dollar for it. How about finding an argument that support your case next time.

  • Reply to

    Chromebooks: Long term threat to Intel

    by yosefshlom Aug 19, 2014 9:56 AM
    marsavian marsavian 22 hours ago Flag

    This is what I said 'You are delusional if you think Intel don't have a chip that can beat any Tegra in any performance/power/price category and that includes gpu.' and they have that chip already, it is called Haswell and check how short K1 comes up against Surface Pro 2/3 etc in 3DMark in say Anandtech's review.

    The trouble with stupid old you is that you just can't see how Intel is attacking mobile in a two-pronged attack, Core from above, Atom from below, So it is easy to lose money on Atom/Modems if Core is bringing in 5 times as much as Atom loses which it is. The fundamental point is Core is so superior Intel could charge $30 for Core-M, still make a profit and all ARM tablet sales would disappear overnight. Intel does not do this because it wants to make the most money for itself not destroy its competitors like Nvidia or AMD which it could easily do if it felt so inclined but whose combined small sales are not worth chasing compared to the negative effect it would have on Intel pps if it dropped its margins arbitrarily. K1 only lives because Intel allows it to live so show some gratitude ingrate.

  • marsavian marsavian Aug 20, 2014 9:09 AM Flag

    The stock feel back yesterday primarily because it gapped up at the start, Nasdaq should not have halted the stock the day before. There is a gap down to 0.186 and 12m shares traded at 22c and below the previous 2 days so profit taking by those traders will have to be got through first before upward progress is resumed. Now I am not saying the gap will be completely filled but it is exerting downward pressure for now. The fundamental news was good and should provide a basis for persistent buying over time but there is a lot of moving average (all of them basically) and fixed resistance that needs to be overcome along the way. Good luck.

    nasdaq dot com/symbol/baa/stock-consultant

    BREAKDOWN WATCH for possible breakdown below 0.21, no support in area just below.
    Type: Continuation breakdown from Single support.

    CURRENT PRICE 0.23, at support, 0.23 ± 0.02, type Single, strength 3

    RESISTANCE ABOVE
    +13% at 0.26 ± 0.02, type Single, strength 3
    +34.8% at 0.31 ± 0.02, type Single, strength 8
    +82.6% at 0.42 ± 0.03, type Single, strength 1
    +100% at 0.46 ± 0.03, type Triple+, strength 7
    +126% at 0.52 ± 0.03, type Triple, strength 9
    +148% at 0.57 ± 0.04, type Single, strength 8
    +170% at 0.62 ± 0.04, type Triple, strength 10

    SUPPORT BELOW None.

  • Reply to

    Russian Aid Convoy

    by marsavian Aug 14, 2014 12:37 PM
    marsavian marsavian Aug 20, 2014 6:53 AM Flag

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/20/uk-ukraine-crisis-rebelranks-insight-idUKKBN0GK0NO20140820

    One rebel source said the new leadership was meant to bring about a "de-escalation" of the conflict - a term used by the West in demanding Russia turn off financial and military support to the rebels.

    A recording of separatist leaders released by Ukraine's state security service suggested more Russian citizens fighting in Ukraine were looking to leave. A rebel fighter told Reuters the insurgency was in a critical phase.

    "Everything is coming to a head," he said.

    Rebel website Novorossiya reported 1,000 fighters, more than 100 armoured vehicles and new weapons supplies had been promised in return for Strelkov’s resignation.

    The downing of the plane may prove to be the turning point in the conflict.

    "I know the reaction of people who saw Putin at the moment when the information (about the Malaysian plane) was delivered to him. It was a reaction of absolute shock," rebel commander Alexander Khodakovsky, leader of the rebel Vostok Battalion, told Reuters last month.

    A recording released by Ukraine's security services, purportedly of a Russian fighter speaking with an officer from Moscow's Federal Security Services (FSB), pointed to rifts between fighters from Russia and local rebels and said DNR had little time left.

    The fighter, "Trifon", who fought alongside Strelkov in Slaviansk uses Russian curses to condemn local rebels for doing "nothing at all" and says he needs a way out of the region to return to Russia.

    "I think DNR has a month minimum," he says in the recording which Reuters was unable to verify independently.

  • Reply to

    Chromebooks: Long term threat to Intel

    by yosefshlom Aug 19, 2014 9:56 AM
    marsavian marsavian Aug 20, 2014 5:45 AM Flag

    Complacency and arrogance which led them to continually under-invest in Atom until now when it became patently obvious that this was a serious computing segment with serious revenue potential they were just turning their nose up for too long. Intel could have been in the first iPhone but Otellini did not want to sell the chips at a potential loss which seems stupid now considering they are prepared to subsidize ultra-mobility $4bn a year until it gets self-sustaining traction. As it happens they got their estimates wrong and the chips would not have been sold at a loss but the serious issue was not appreciating like Apple the emergence of smartphones and then tablets as new form-factors in which their chips could and should profitably partake from the very beginning leaving them now in more expensive catch up mode.

    So for a long time Atom was underfunded and underdeveloped and just considered an x86 side-show to Core i.e. basically a cheap low-power Celeron rather than a competitor in emerging brand new markets with great growth potential so they soldiered on with the original Mk 1 Atom design for 4-5 years from 45nm Silverthorne to 32nm Clovertrail while ARM went from 65nm A8 to 40nm A9 to 28nm A15 in the same time so Atom went from being more performant to less performant in that time compared to ARM's best. It's only with Mk2 Atom 22nm Silvermont that the design is being finally taken seriously and also participating in Intel's advanced processes when they are ready.

    Haswell's gpu is more powerful than the K1's although I concede the K1's gpu is more powerful than any 22nm Atom's gpu although that will change with the top-bin 14nm Cherry Trail Atom but that looks a 2015 volume release.

  • Reply to

    Selling looks done ...

    by marsavian Aug 19, 2014 10:48 AM
    marsavian marsavian Aug 19, 2014 4:29 PM Flag

    The stock did not need any news to go to $4.22 in June and the job will be easier next time around as the volume then would have shaken out a lot of the historical resistance. Just need some positive upward momentum back in the stock again.

  • Reply to

    Chromebooks: Long term threat to Intel

    by yosefshlom Aug 19, 2014 9:56 AM
    marsavian marsavian Aug 19, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    You are delusional if you think Intel don't have a chip that can beat any Tegra in any performance/power/price category and that includes gpu. You do know that a Celeron is a totally artificial sku based on a Core that can clock as high as 4.4 Ghz flat out when needed ? Intel can invent any artificially slugged Celeron sku that can beat any ARM processor either today or tomorrow without affecting margins/profits on its fully featured brothers. The article was complete daydreaming BS not founded in reality pretty much like the majority of the posts here in fact. Tegra will sell by being in good designs not by trying to outperform Intel chips in generic Chromebooks because that particular fantasy is just not going to happen at least not against the Core chips. Against Atom, you have a chance but not on price.

  • Reply to

    Chromebooks: Long term threat to Intel

    by yosefshlom Aug 19, 2014 9:56 AM
    marsavian marsavian Aug 19, 2014 12:12 PM Flag

    LOL, INTC is approaching $35 and you think I feel threatened ? Since I started posting on this board INTC is up over 50% while NVDA is still down over 25% so you have completely the wrong idea as it should have been you clowns who should have been worried about Intel spoiling your Windows and Android ARM parties not the other way round. You are wasting all your time with all these clueless Intel bashing posts as you have been over the last 5 years. Pick an easier target, one you can beat not one you have no chance of beating. Just pray Intel leaves you a cheap sku slot you can fit your chips into.

  • marsavian by marsavian Aug 19, 2014 10:48 AM Flag

    just need a few buyers now to take it back over $4. Should not take much as the persistent big seller appears to left the building.

  • Reply to

    Barron's: $45 and $50 price targets on Intel

    by wallisweaver Aug 19, 2014 10:21 AM
    marsavian marsavian Aug 19, 2014 10:43 AM Flag

    Rick Whittington and Mark Lipacis have good track records in share price prediction, the complete opposite of Covello and Mosesmann who have the two worst ;-).

  • Reply to

    Chromebooks: Long term threat to Intel

    by yosefshlom Aug 19, 2014 9:56 AM
    marsavian marsavian Aug 19, 2014 10:38 AM Flag

    Another clueless post, Intel has been in chromebooks for over a year, look at your own post ...

    •Review: Acer C720 Chromebook with Core i3, best value yet

  • marsavian marsavian Aug 19, 2014 1:39 AM Flag

    Don't be condescending and you are not remotely keeping me honest rather I am just correcting you from your ignorance. No-one feeds me any beliefs, I do my own deep technical analysis often against the herd (i.e. I laughed in the face of all those who thought ARM and tablets would bring down Intel or that Itanium would slay Opteron) and invariably it is proved right over time as it has with AMD, NVDA, INTC etc and I was debating with Charlie D back (both agreeing and disagreeing at times) in the Aceshardware days (as mas) so my history and knowledge is long in these matters.

    Right having told you what Denver is not i.e. a competitor to Core-M let me be positive and tell you what it could be. Now no-one looking at Denver would ever design such a cpu if you was going for just high performance i.e. in-order but it could just be an efficient design in performance/power in the ultra-mobility sphere although we will need results from final silicon to confirm.

    If it can be positioned as a leading $30-40 chip for tablets and phones it could provide some very nice incremental revenue for NVDA that could become materially important over future years. It does need to stay ahead of ARM and Intel's future best efforts in that price range e.g. A57/Broxton but there is potential there especially when tied with a decent Nvidia gpu. It also needs to go to quad-core at 20nm as at 28nm it is not good enough to be a successful leading dual-core design like say Core-M. Anyways Nvidia is finally in the cpu designing business after all these years and that in itself is a useful diversification. Good luck with it.

  • Reply to

    Russian Aid Convoy

    by marsavian Aug 14, 2014 12:37 PM
    marsavian marsavian Aug 19, 2014 1:13 AM Flag

    Full transcript of the Crimean meeting of the Klingon High Council

    http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/22820

    My analysis of the situation now is that Putin will let the Nationalist elements in his country support the Donbass insurrection until its natural bloody conclusion, in effect letting them get it out of their system. Then he will make peace with Ukraine and the West in the aftermath. I also don't believe there will be any more sanctions as the EU is painfully finding out it needs Russia more than it needs Ukraine and will not fancy more retaliations this time against their car industries rather than just their farmers. So no more sanctions and only a localized conflict eventually petering out means world stocks like INTC are all set fair to coast along worrying just about economic factors rather than geopolitical ones.

    p.s. the convey matter now seems agreed and will be handed over to the IRC to distribute.

  • marsavian marsavian Aug 18, 2014 3:27 AM Flag

    Slide 14 of the following pdf shows 2.5 Ghz Denver being compared to a 1.4 GHz Haswell Celeron and 1.6 GHz Bay Trail Celeron as well as other ARM chips. Remember though these are Celerons with slugged clocks and caches for artificial sku stratification purposes not the top bins of both these chips that clock as high as 3.3 GHz in the Haswell-U, 2.9 GHz for Haswell-Y and 2.4 GHz for Bay Trail.

    http://ark.intel.com/products/76618
    http://ark.intel.com/products/75114

    http://www.setphaserstostun.org/hc26/HC26-11-day1-epub/HC26.11-2-Mobile-Processors-epub/HC26.11.234-Denver-Darrell.Boggs-NVIDIA-rev4.pdf

    'Without it, they would be dead.'

    Don't be absurd and alarmist, traditional PC processors are still selling in their billions of dollars every year and Nvidia depends on that ecosystem to make profits with its expensive gpus. If PCs die so does Nvidia's profits. In fact Intel would have made a billion more last quarter without its heavy investment in Atom and Modems.

  • marsavian marsavian Aug 18, 2014 3:10 AM Flag

    'Don't count ARM for Windows out yet. '

    I never counted it in as I knew and posted it would be a bust from the very beginning and have been proven completely right. No performance or power or price advantages over x86 with crippling legacy software incompatibility to boot is not a recipe for success and so it proved.

    'Your post illustrates exactly why Microsoft needs to cultivate an Intel alternative if for no other reason than to keep Intel's pricing in-line.'

    That's supposedly why AMD exists but Intel is now pricing their Atoms cheaper than them which shows you how irrelevant this line of thought is.

    'Show me an unambiguous quote from a Microsoft executive saying ARM for Windows is dead and I will say that I am wrong. '

    I don't need to as their actions speak louder than any words. On Surface Pro 3 release they also had a Snapdragon 800 Surface 3 ready to go too but canned it just before launch as I suspect they got tired of losing hundreds of millions on this aborted failed o/s. All the software work they have done on WinRT will eventually migrate to Windows Phone but for Windows on PCs and Tablets WinRT is DOA.

    'I do not believe it will be with $125 Core-M's. '

    It will be with $25 Cherry Trails or $40 Broadwell Celerons. Also don't get too hung up on Intel's list prices as the really big OEMs who buy in 6-7 figure bulk usually get around 50% discount.

    ' K1/64 changes the equation on what can be done with Windows. '

    No it does not, it will barely live with a 1.4 GHz Haswell Celeron which is not groundbreaking.

    'Architecturally, I would bet that Denver at 20nm is designed to produce equivalent performance at equivalent power to any 14nm out-of-order Core-M that Intel could conjure up (they key issue for Intel being 'out-of'order'). Further, Denver has first-to-market advantage by six months.'

    You would bet wrong. The top-bin Core-M will have 2-3X the single-thread and 3-4X the multi-threaded performance/power of Denver in the same ~5W fanless class.

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