I like being alerted to potentially good stocks. For example, I really started looking at CLDX based on comments I read on the KOG message board...and took a position at $9.34.
PRAN is way more speculative than ACAD obviously. Im holding some may 2014 2.50 call strikes. I think its totally gambling on this one...and imnot sure ..If it succeeds..how it would affecT ACAD.
i was actually encouraged when Jason clarified my question to him and stated that his math had ACAD pps at $82 in 2019. I can live with that for sure.
In the new SA article,,,Jason Napodano states:
" We value the company assuming an 85% probability of approval in the PDP indication, with peak sales of $900 million in 2019; for the ADP indication we assume a 65% likelihood of approval with peak sales of $4.5 billion in 2023. We apply a P/S multiple of 4x to the PDP indication, and a lower P/S ratio of 3x to the ADP indication, in view of the aging of the patents. Discounting back at 20% we obtain a valuation of $2.50 billion, or $27 per share."
Is he saying that ACAD will be worth $27/share after they reach peak sales in 2019?....a 20% gain in 6 years?
I been doing some research on the use of anitpsychotic drugs in he treatment of Alzheimers. I ran across an interesting article from Oct 2012 on WebMD titled "Alzheimers: Are Antipsychotic Drugs Worth It". The basic conclusion of the article was " there is an urgent need for better, safer drugs to treat aggression, agitation, and psychosis in people with Alzheimer’s disease."
If Pimivanserin has a positive on any of the above, the increase in pps will be significant.
Zoom... if your so negative on ACAD... why are you here? Because your concerned about others and want to enlighten? You think negative posts on a message board have any Influence on the movementv of the stock?
I actaually added to my position..bought some at 21.11...and a 5.00 jan 2015 contract. Info from the call just reinforced my strategy going forward...and the price action in GDHX reinforced my belief in Baker Bros. top holdings.
i bought CLDX at 9.34 and sold at 37. Still holding ACAD. It's safer...and in my opionion trading about right where it should be at this point. Both stocks got ahead of themselves. ALot wil happen for ACAD in the next year
According to yahoo finance, ACAD was one of the stocks called in on "lightening round"..and Cramer said he needed to do some research on it. This is after he said to sell it a few weeks ago shortly after recommending it on his two thousandth episode.
EZ..thanks...Im holding a relatively lage position as well (for me anyway). I got pounded by the default fear BS and selling after the drop, buying back in the $21s ,selling in $23s and buying back in the morning it popped. I ended up losing 300 shares of my core position. Im holding and have given up trying to outguess the price swings.
EZ...my question was: Because part 2 of PHASE III has been waived.., has Pima has basicaly been given the green light? It doesnt look like any further efficacy or safety data is need by the FDA..just drug interacton, stability, and manufacturing data for theiri final submission. Is this correct?
I pulled the following from wikipedia regarding the FDA phase III process:
"While not required in all cases, it is typically expected that there be at least two successful Phase III trials, demonstrating a drug's safety and efficacy, in order to obtain approval from the appropriate regulatory agencies such as FDA (USA), or the EMA (European Union),
Once a drug has proved satisfactory after Phase III trials, the trial results are usually combined into a large document containing a comprehensive description of the methods and results of human and animal studies, manufacturing procedures, formulation details, and shelf life. This collection of information makes up the "regulatory submission" that is provided for review to the appropriate regulatory authorities in different countries. They will review the submission, and, it is hoped, give the sponsor approval to market the drug.
Most drugs undergoing Phase III clinical trials can be marketed under FDA norms with proper recommendations and guidelines through a New Drug Application (NDA) containing all manufacturing, pre-clinical, and clinical data. In case of any adverse effects being reported anywhere, the drugs need to be recalled immediately from the market. While most pharmaceutical companies refrain from this practice, it is not abnormal to see many drugs undergoing Phase III clinical trials in the market."
If this is correct, it looks like ACAD and pimavanserin have basically been given the green light.
89....I originally rolled a 76% RDN gain straight into ACAD at $14. Had a real nice run. After the big drop in ACAD from $29 I got spooked by all the talk about the pending default and went to the sidelines. I bought back in the $21's..then sold in the $23's thinking I could get back in the $20's. I Bought back 900 shares yesterday in my trading account at the close so i caught a nice pop there. After the heavy buying this morning I decided to throw in the towel on trying to short-term-trade ACAD. So I picked up 3,716 in my Roth at $24.65 and 400 more shares in my trading account for $24.70. Im holding till approval or buyout with these shares. I plan on selling my SPWR after earnings and rolling it into OMER, more XOMA, and ACAD. Good luck
Dont feel bad. I did about the same thing. I have been trying to play this thing since it took the drop. If if have just kept my optiond and shares id be 30k higher. But im back in and have decided to hold my position. The heavy buying this morning convinced me. Holding my 5016 shares and some 2015 call options.