TGNA blew away estimates and still closed down over $2 that day. Didn't see anything concerning in their numbers, not sure what happened there. I almost bought before the release knowing they would beat since they had just given their estimates a month before when they broke out their publishing side. Luckily I got busy and did not buy.
Just cleaned up, I have no position right now. The Vix hit 12 yesterday, every time that happens we have a selloff in stocks. If we can get a couple more days of selling off I'm going to get back in.
I sold out yesterday afternoon. I then shorted 2915 shares at 17.28-17.30. I am in the middle of covering those shorts right now at 16.96.
I'm selling the call options month to month. Little more risk, lot's more profit if correct. I have sold calls covering all my shares with a strike price at $29 and they expire today. Fun to watch them almost hold it at $29 today. Be curious to see if it ends just above $29 if they'll take my shares or not. They can have them, I'll buy them back Monday.
I would not sell calls against my shares for November. I think we'll see a run before then and you would be left out, not counting the premium you earn.
SBGI will not be bought out but they will sell some spectrum in some key markets. They'll get a little under a billion for what they are going to sell.
I need you back on the SBGI board, We are selling off and I need your contrary support by posting negative rantings to help support the stock.
When 144K shares of volume takes the value of your company down 30 million dollars and the company has cash and authorization to spend that cash on shares, YOU NEED TO DO IT. Don't let the short base take you down without some pain. A 20K share purchase will take you back up.
Dems and Republicans are supporting this bill. There will be more legislation attempted later this year to widen the ownership limits. I think the government understands largely due to local broadcasters and the NAB beating the same drum for 2 years and finally getting the point across.
Google and Apple have always been questioned about their cash hoarding. Wouldn't that be great if this was the reason why. They've known this communications highway sale has been coming for the past 5 years. If Apple and Google get involved we might see 100 billion in spectrum purchases. If that happens you could probably double all broadcaster current prices as multiples would expand quickly. It doesn't take much cash to make these stocks move. I'm still heavily in SBGI, I think just their new operating power takes them to $45-$50 in 12 months. Throw in a billion in proceeds from the auction and they might see $70 in 18 months.
Thought the same thing when I saw that yesterday. They have net cash over debt of about 55 billion dollars. That got me thinking and I looked at the other carriers. They don't have the cash. They do have more lines of debt but a Google or Microsoft or someone we haven't thought of that has cash will have to step up to get this auction into the 60-80 billion dollar range. My hunch is someone will come up with the cash.
I can tell you this. I have done 5 year deals for tower rental space with AT&T and Verizon in the past 6 months so any immediate danger of tower usage going away will be deeper in the future. They do pay an enormous amount of money to rent tower space so if there is a way they can take this expense out of their budgets you can bet it will happen.
SBGI going to do about 30% of it's average volume. I'm hoping it will close below 31, I sold calls against all my shares. Do you think if it closes at 31.05 they'll swoop in to get those shares? I don't see how they can with it asking .25 right now. I'm thinking even at 31.10 I may not lose them. What do you think?
I told you I need this at $31 or below by Friday. You show up and all of a sudden the very next day we are up another 1 %. You still remain the best contrarian indicator in the business.
I sold call options against all my shares about a month back. They will expire worthless at $31 or below on this Friday's close. I had already assumed I would have to buy them back so I didn't lose my shares but it looks like they are bringing it back for me. After Friday's expiration I will be running naked again. Looking for a decent beat on earnings and continued upward share price.
I never once made a post supporting their operational plan. They are a poorly run company. I think their only positive is their real estate in the spectrum auction. This thing will be much higher one day and it's going to come in a hurry. Their lack of operational abilities is what creates their value for investors come auction time. Don't worry about that. Can't tell you when that is because it's all about clarity on their spectrum plans and the actual auction itself and when the street awakens to their value. I think we have some time. The other 3 groups on the other hand will continue to beat their current revenue and income expectations on the way to the ATM that is the spectrum auction.
I don't consider myself a pumper. I know what is coming and I relay that here. A pumper is someone who is spouting off with baseless facts in hope to convince someone to buy. I, on the other hand am providing you a service by letting you know what I know. I worked for the knowledge, all you have to do is read my posts. I'm just kidding, take a chill pill. (kind of)
My plan is share price growth in SBGI, MEG and GTN in to the Fall with their continued cash flow growth due to earlier purchases that are not being fully priced in at this point. Not sure exactly when but some time in the Fall, after we've gotten ahead of ourselves in price. I'm then going to take my profits. I will then go into EVC as a pure spectrum play.
I might trade EVC over the next year but I think their lack of operational success will keep it in the $6 range, might even drop it to the $5's. At that point I will start taking a large stake in EVC as a pure spectrum play.
I think EVC could easily double in price if they participate in the auction to the level they should. They have calls in some of the best spectrum markets out there. Even though they won't get anything near the prices Greenhill stated, they'll get enough cash to make this thing jump. Honestly if EVC was trading at $20 after the auction I would not be surprised in the least.
As Dan stated, they are worth more dead than alive. They know this and I think they cash out.
I think $21 is a good number. I think the numbers they release are going to be much better than the question marks left behind at the last Q call. If anything, clarity of what can be expected should be a short term positive.
Dude comes over there at my request and literally a week later we are flying high. I referred him back to the EVC board to see if he can kick it into gear. When he shows you know you've seen the lows.