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China Nepstar Chain Drugstore Ltd. Message Board

martha.varias 11 posts  |  Last Activity: 33 minutes ago Member since: May 12, 2008
  • martha.varias martha.varias 33 minutes ago Flag

    Calculation Summary

    To sum it up, this is Petroamerica's enterprise value based on the average metrics of the peers:

    1) Per EV/Production = $687 million.
    2) Per EV/2P Reserves= $298 million.
    3) Per EV/EBITDA= $893 million.

    Based on the average metrics of the peers, Petroamerica's enterprise value should be: 687 + 298 + 893 = 1878 / 3 = $626 million.

    Since Petroamerica's net debt is negative and currently stands at approximately $35 million, the market cap will be approximately $661 million. Dividing this market cap by 858 million outstanding shares, I get $0.77/share or C$0.85/share (1 USD = 1.097 CAD).

    Given that Petroamerica's current price is C$0.39/share, there is an upside of approximately 115% from the current levels.

  • martha.varias martha.varias 36 minutes ago Flag

    It is clear that Petroamerica generates a higher margin per barrel of oil produced than the oil-weighted companies operating in Canada and the US. More importantly, a high netback allows the company to fully fund its capital program from cash flow and cash on hand. Petroamerica does not need to fund capital expenditures through debt and thus can maintain the strength of its balance sheet.
    These high netbacks is the result of the following factors:

    1) Petroamerica's production consists of light and medium oil.

    2) The company is indexing its oil price to Brent that has been consistently trading at a premium to WTI over the last years.

    3) The bottlenecks that were hampering the production growth of the Colombian producers until 2011 have been resolved. Fortunately, oil transportation infrastructure in Colombia has caught up with production over the last years. Last year, the Bicentenario line began operating, while the Ocensa pipeline was expanded. Calgary-based Enbridge (NYSE:ENB) is also considering building a line to Colombia's Pacific coast. And according to Parex's CEO: "At present there is lots of excess capacity in pipelines."
    The Valuation Is A Steal

    In this paragraph, I will compare Petroamerica to its peers. Due to the increasing M&A activity in Colombia over the last two years, there are not many companies left with light oil-weighted production and assets exclusively in Colombia. This is why, I had to broaden a bit the criteria as below:

    1) The peers are either big junior producers (production at approximately 10,000 boepd) or small intermediate producers.

    2) They have light oil-weighted production coming from onshore assets.

    3) All their producing properties are located in South America, and all or most of their production is coming from Colombia.

    Based on these criteria, here are Petroamerica's peers:

    1) GeoPark Limited (NYSE:GPRK).
    2) Amerisur Resources (OTC:ASUXF).
    3) Canacol Energy.
    4) Parex Resources.
    5) Gran Tierra Energy (NYSEMKT:GTE).

  • martha.varias martha.varias 38 minutes ago Flag

    Summary
    Petroamerica made a transformative deal by acquiring Suroco Energy, and addressed all the challenges it was facing.
    This acquisition significantly strengthens and diversifies the company's asset base.
    Now, Petroamerica has everything: strong production growth, high netbacks, stellar balance sheet with a strong cash position and an aggressive management.
    With management focused on continuing to grow, the tremendous valuation gap with the peers can close anytime and Petroamerica's shareholders stand to benefit a lot.

    First, this acquisition gave Petroamerica four blocks in Putumayo and boosted the company's production and 2P reserves by approximately 50% and 100% respectively.

    Through that deal, Petroamerica also addressed both the single asset risk and its relatively short RLI (Reserves Life Index), while the company added operatorship, given that Suroco was qualified as a restricted operator in the 2010 bid round. On top of that, the combined company intends to apply to become an unrestricted operator over the next months.

    Furthermore, it matters a lot to me the fact that Suroco's technical team who has gained substantial experience working in Ecuador will remain part of the combined company. This will facilitate Petroamerica's potential expansion to Ecuador, if needed.

  • This article contains a factual detailed analysis about PTAXF, but it won't be available to the public soon, because it's a top rated PRO TOP IDEA article. so, I will copy paste some parts of it for those who will be interested in the near future for PTAXF:

  • Reply to

    OT : Petroamerica & Suroco

    by don_t_panick Jun 6, 2014 1:42 PM
    martha.varias martha.varias 48 minutes ago Flag

    Interesting.

  • Reply to

    President & CEO Nelson Navarrete

    by martha.varias 1 hour 1 minute ago
    martha.varias martha.varias 50 minutes ago Flag

    PTA trades just 1.5 times its EBITDA at the current price of C$0.37 per share.

    Mart Resources (MMT) that drills in one of the riskiest countries of the world (Nigeria) currently trades almost 6 times its EBITDA.

    PTA's peers in Latin America also trade 4 (PXT.T) to 9 times (AMER.L) their EBITDA.

    PTA has also Negative Net Debt, while most of its peers above have Positive Net Debt.

  • Mr. Navarrete has over 24 years of oil and gas experience through his extensive career with the State Oil Company of Colombia - Ecopetrol, he served as Vice President of Exporation and Production department.
    ...
    Mr. Navarrete has also held several board positions with some of the subsidiaries of Ecopetrol, namely;
    Ecopetrol America Inc.,
    Ecopetrol Peru,
    Ecopetrol de Brasil,
    Savia(Peru)
    Hocol S.A.

    Therefore, Mr. Navarrete has contacts with all the executives of the big energy companies in Colombia.
    For example, this is from the upcoming Enercol Symposium this September. It will take place in Bogota and it is considered as most important meeting of the energy sector in the country:

    "Panel: Estrategias de crecimiento del sector

    Moderador: Nelson Navarrete

    Héctor Manosalva. Vicepresidente de Desarrollo y Producción. Ecopetrol
    Javier Betancourt. Presidente. ANH
    Ronald Pantin. Director Ejecutivo CEO. Pacific Rubiales Energy"

  • CPE purchased about 10% of the size of the acreage that Nighthawk has.
    Check these news with all the details to see how undervalued NHEGF is in comparison with its peers.

  • martha.varias by martha.varias Sep 13, 2014 3:16 AM Flag

    Good price to consider start buying here.
    The price has dropped a little due to oil price drop, but now that most investors are cautious, it's time to find a good entry point in Nighthawk.
    This stock is still undervalued as Value Digger has explained thorougly in his SA article a few months ago.

  • martha.varias by martha.varias Aug 18, 2014 2:17 PM Flag

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2431945-do-these-4-energy-companies-remain-excellent-short-candidates

  • Reply to

    Production rate is dropping as a rock

    by halap5 Jul 18, 2014 12:06 AM
    martha.varias martha.varias Jul 20, 2014 3:32 AM Flag

    Yahoo numbers are not accurate. The company is good, but the stock isn't a bargain anymore.

    Sentiment: Hold

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